Cornell University - Vaccination not Preventing Infection

stevil

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The person with natural immunity will not transmit it or contract it.
There are breakthrough infections in people with natural immunity too.

But we are comparing the vacinated vs people without any immunity (without vaccine immunity or natural immunity)
 
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Bradskii

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Oh, my library had the audiobook!

It's a must read. I'm reading it a second time. It's jammed full of light bulb moments. I keep putting it down and walking around the room thinking 'so that's why we do that!'

You'll never think about thinking the same way again.
 
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renniks

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Well, it won a Nobel prize:

'In October, Princeton University psychologist Daniel Kahneman, PhD, was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his groundbreaking work in applying psychological insights to economic theory, particularly in the areas of judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.

Kahneman is recognized for the pioneering research and theoretical work he conducted with colleague Amos Tversky, PhD, who died in 1996. While Tversky was acknowledged in the announcement, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences does not award prizes posthumously. "Certainly, we would have gotten this together," said Kahneman on the day of the announcement. "There is that shadow over the joy I feel."

The team's findings have countered some assumptions of traditional economic theory--that people make rational choices based on their self-interest--by showing that people frequently fail to fully analyze situations where they must make complex judgments. Instead, people often make decisions using rules of thumb rather than rational analysis, and they base those decisions on factors economists traditionally don't consider, such as fairness, past events and aversion to loss.

His work has inspired a new generation of researchers in economics and finance to enrich economic theory using insights from cognitive psychology into intrinsic human motivation," said the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences' announcement. That's evidenced by the fact Kahneman and Tversky's seminal paper "Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk," has the highest citation count of all articles published in Econometrica, arguably the most prestigious economic journal.'
Psychologist wins Nobel Prize

You should read his book: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555
Sounds boring.
This whole age of reason thing is overrated. It assumes that we are reasonable creatures for one thing.
 
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Bradskii

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Sounds boring.
This whole age of reason thing is overrated. It assumes that we are reasonable creatures for one thing.

Learning about how we process information is overrated? Learning more about ourselves is overrated? Learning about why people make wrong decisions is overrated? Learning to protect oneself against bias when making decisions is overrated?

If you say so.
 
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renniks

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Learning about how we process information is overrated? Learning more about ourselves is overrated? Learning about why people make wrong decisions is overrated? Learning to protect oneself against bias when making decisions is overrated?

If you say so.
I see you missed what I actually said. Better read that book again!
 
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Bradskii

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I see you missed what I actually said. Better read that book again!

You said, in response to my comments about Kahneman's work that the 'age of reason' is overrated. I simply pointed out a few things that could be learnt from reading his work. If you think those things are overrted then so be it.

You also said that his work assumes that we are rational creatures. If by that you mean we can make rational decisions, then yes. We are.
 
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stevil

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I also wonder about whether people have a HEALTHY relationship with PEER REVIEWED data that disagrees with their view.
I suspect that pretty much everyone falls for confirmation bias.
If an article supports our current understanding, we are less likely to second guess it, less likely to look into the veracity of it.

But if the article is contradictory to our current understanding we either reject the article or look deeper into it, look into it's sources, assess it's underlying data.
 
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loveofourlord

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They don't, but even if they did, no, you can't make other people's decisions whether they decide to smoke, or drink or eat too many donuts, or drive recklessly. You still don't have that right.


ummmmm yes we do for two of those already. You can't smoke in most places where you harm people, you can't drive recklessly that will get you your license taken away and possible criminal charges if you hurt someone....really bad examples.
 
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renniks

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You said, in response to my comments about Kahneman's work that the 'age of reason' is overrated. I simply pointed out a few things that could be learnt from reading his work. If you think those things are overrted then so be it.

You also said that his work assumes that we are rational creatures. If by that you mean we can make rational decisions, then yes. We are.
See this is exactly what I was talking about. You believe this person because he's an ," authority" or whatever. Boiled down, you have faith that he's right. Everyone chooses what to have faith in. He could be a total quack or completely right. Doesn't make having faith in his thoughts rational.
 
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renniks

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ummmmm yes we do for two of those already. You can't smoke in most places where you harm people, you can't drive recklessly that will get you your license taken away and possible criminal charges if you hurt someone....really bad examples.
Whoosh! Right over your head.
 
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hedrick

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The fall 2020 peak in NY didn’t start getting significant until late October. This years peak was fully present in September.

I’ve been watching maps on various sites that show states in different colors depending upon.cases and vaccination. They’re pretty well matched. The main exception is Florida, which did worse than I’d expect based on vaccination. One thing we noticed in NJ is that beach counties did worse than you’d expect based on vaccination. It’s easy to guess why that might be. But it could also be related to DeSantis.
 
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RestoreTheJoy

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There are breakthrough infections in people with natural immunity too.

But we are comparing the vacinated vs people without any immunity (without vaccine immunity or natural immunity)
Please show me stats on these breakthrough infections of people who actually have natural immunity.
 
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stevil

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Bradskii

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See this is exactly what I was talking about. You believe this person because he's an ," authority" or whatever. Boiled down, you have faith that he's right. Everyone chooses what to have faith in. He could be a total quack or completely right. Doesn't make having faith in his thoughts rational.

If you give me a while I'll dig out my list of Total Quacks Who Have Won The Nobel Prize.

But let's skip that. One good way of checking a scientist's bona fides is to see how many times his papers have been cited. Check this site: economics, psychology, policy: Most cited papers in behavioral economics

You'll see that he has the record for the all time most citated paper in behavioural economics. Most of the top ten are around 1500. Which is an astonishingly large number. Kahnemann (and his long time colleague Teversky) has a paper which formed the basis of the book I mentioned which has nearly 9,000. A long way in front of number two (with a still incredible 3,800). Which was...let me check...hey, the same two guys! Some upstart sneaked in at number three but K and T are there in fourth as well.

And you want to suggest that listening to what this guy says is not rational? If you wanted to define 'Undeniable expert in his scientific field' then you'd just quote his name.
 
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renniks

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And you want to suggest that listening to what this guy says is not rational?
As I said you have faith that he's right. That's fine. But now you are just appealing to popular opinion. Has that ever been wrong? Hmm. I can think of a few times...we all decide what to put our faith in. I rarely choose popular opinion.
 
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Bradskii

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As I said you have faith that he's right. That's fine. But now you are just appealing to popular opinion. Has that ever been wrong? Hmm. I can think of a few times...we all decide what to put our faith in. I rarely choose popular opinion.

Do you really think that the number of times a scientific paper has been cited can be described as 'popular opinion'? It's almost the basis that scientists use to determine the validity of the science. It's each scientist saying 'I agree with this. This is entirely valid. I will reference it in my own paper'.

This isn't an Amazon count for the number of people who have bought his book. This isn't the time it's spent on the NY Times best sellers list. It's how science works.
 
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renniks

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Do you really think that the number of times a scientific paper has been cited can be described as 'popular opinion'? It's almost the basis that scientists use to determine the validity of the science. It's each scientist saying 'I agree with this. This is entirely valid. I will reference it in my own paper'.

This isn't an Amazon count for the number of people who have bought his book. This isn't the time it's spent on the NY Times best sellers list. It's how science works.
Lol, so now scientists are always right? Should I put my faith in that?
 
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Bradskii

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Lol, so now scientists are always right? Should I put my faith in that?

Nah. Best not to read anything by anyone with a degree or a phd or a masters or a Nobel Prize or anyone considered to be the world's leading expert in his or her field. It's just too risky.
 
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renniks

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Nah. Best not to read anything by anyone with a degree or a phd or a masters or a Nobel Prize or anyone considered to be the world's leading expert in his or her field. It's just too risky.
I never said that. Read all you like and decide what to believe. That's what we all do.
 
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