Called it in November, implications for the future

Can't help but notice how attention has migrated from "Flattening the Curve" vs "Herd Immunity", to "multiple variants" and "protracted mitigation". If we had gone with Herd Immunity, who's to say we wouldn't have had this thing under control months ago, sans variants?

Everything you posted makes complete sense.

In other words, we’re doomed.

ThisIsMe123 said:

I have to say, this was quite jaw dropping when I read this article, and it was dated back in November...you read it and it was predicted to a T what he knew would happen, now, in present time.

Covid Vaccines Confer No Sterilizing Immunity

This means that the use of masks, distancing, limited closures, and other mitigation efforts will STILL be required long after the vaccines are introduced. This will be the case at least until we exceed 70%-to-80% vaccine compliance and may still be required for those over 60 well after full vaccine compliance.

If we drop all mitigation efforts, even with full vaccine compliance, the virus will go fully endemic and almost everyone will catch Covid-19 once or twice a year.

In such a scenario, Covid will be as widespread as the common cold but kill like seasonal influenza. The average person gets 3 colds a year with over a 1-billion colds a year in the US versus only about 30M to 50M cases of seasonal influenza.

Because Covid vastly more infectious than seasonal influenza, we should expect 6x to 10x as many cases of Covid as the flu, but with a death rate comparable to the flu.

Even after full vaccine compliance (80% plus), with a fully re-opened economy and no mitigation measures, Covid-19 will likely remain the 3rd leading cause of death in the US after heart disease and cancer with an annual death toll of >300k deaths per year.

This is why maintaining mitigation measures like mask usage, distance, reduced social density may be necessary for the next several years. Unfortunately, there will likely be a strong political push to drop all mitigation measures shortly after the vaccine is widely available.

==(This is the poster, me, chiming in, so very, very true...mitigations will be ignored at this point, and ARE being ignored).==

In a scenario where there’s a 50% vaccination rate and no mitigation measures, the death rate could easily be 2x-to-3x higher as it becomes increasingly difficult for those unwilling to take the vaccine to avoid infection...but without any of the protections of the vaccine!

If we drop mitigation measures with only half the population vaccinated, then by this time next year, the epidemic could be at levels vastly above where we are today!

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Sounds like a template for leftist talking points.

However, upon full vaccine compliance, I’m wondering if most people would be satisfied with the elimination of all mitigation efforts?

I believe that I would.

The potential risk of death (as stated in the article) doesn’t seem sufficient to justify the reduction in “quality of life” that comes with significant mitigation efforts.

Mark Quayle said:

Can't help but notice how attention has migrated from "Flattening the Curve" vs "Herd Immunity", to "multiple variants" and "protracted mitigation". If we had gone with Herd Immunity, who's to say we wouldn't have had this thing under control months ago, sans variants?

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The virus would still evolve, maybe more so with more transmission. If you think that it's OK to let people die in order to stop the pandemic, fine. I just happen not to agree with that method. Natural herd immunity means letting people suffer and die, just like they did before vaccines were introduced.

I'm 70 so in the high risk category. After much consideration, I got my first jab. Side effects were minimal. I will have the second head that sprung up removed when hospitals get back to normal.

Everyone will catch Covid 2-3x per year!

... except for that pesky study of the town in Spain where 98% of the population was still immune to Covid nearly a year later from previous infection or exposure.

I found this article but I can’t divulge the source ……………….as it might incriminate me


Fauci said the vaccine was is safe and not only safe against this virus, he also implied that it is a direct ticket into heaven. If you get the vaccine you get to sit with Jesus and judge the unvaccinated, the unmasked, the unliberal, the pro USA, the defend the police, those against communism, and against Trader Joe and Giggles …..And I think he quoted from the revised new age bible…

II Cor 5:20 Now then we are crusaders for fascism, as though Fauci did beseech you by Bill Gates: we demand you in Diablo’s stead, be ye jabbed (re-jabbed, jabbed again…again …again) with Moderna.


I mean ………………..what could possibly be the downside

Mark Quayle said:

Can't help but notice how attention has migrated from "Flattening the Curve" vs "Herd Immunity", to "multiple variants" and "protracted mitigation". If we had gone with Herd Immunity, who's to say we wouldn't have had this thing under control months ago, sans variants?

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Do you know of any virus where herd immunity was achieved by infection rather than a vaccine?

Once anti-vaxers decided that exercising their freedom to spread disease was more important than keeping their fellow citizens safe, herd immunity was impossible.

Space Monkey said:

Everyone will catch Covid 2-3x per year!

... except for that pesky study of the town in Spain where 98% of the population was still immune to Covid nearly a year later from previous infection or exposure.

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Does it come with a pesky reference of any kind?

That Guy 11200 said:

Do you know of any virus where herd immunity was achieved by infection rather than a vaccine?

Once anti-vaxers decided that exercising their freedom to spread disease was more important than keeping their fellow citizens safe, herd immunity was impossible.

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Off the top of my head, I'd guess Spanish Flu was one.

Once non-vaccers decided that exercising their liberty of conscience and their right over their own bodies were more important than toeing the 'panic' line of left wing tyrant-wannabe's, and getting into the habit of doing whatever they are told regardless of whether it makes sense or regardless of many other warning signs, INCLUDING SHAMING instead of debate, and political correctness and other pressure methods of the left, herd immunity was still possible, though more difficult now that the virus has had time to mutate via "Flattening the Curve".

The left still can't get their terminology straight. How did "flattening the curve" turn into "mitigation efforts"?

All of my research has been about how long immunity lasts. Thanks to this thread I went down a rabbit hole and read through as much information as I could down the Google line of pages. Reinfections are almost always very mild and most people never know that they've been reinfected. So we have antibodies lasting for at least almost a year (and probably longer, more studies will need to be done of these same people later down the road), and when reinfection does happen, you likely won't even know it was Covid. That's super duper spooky. Everyone is going to die.

The implications are:

You're going to get covid sooner or later for the foreseable future, so get a vaccine so your immune system is prepared, as well as taking supplements that have been proven to help with fighting the virus.
Keep masking and social distancing to keep the load on hospitals as low as possible, at least for this autumn and winter.
If you can't take a vaccine and you have some sort of high-risk condition, put your affairs in order.

I also doubt that every infection of covid-19 will be as deadly as the first infection. After a while, I'd expect people to just "catch a cold" more often, and some of those colds will feel a bit different because it's really covid-19.

Tanj said:

Does it come with a pesky reference of any kind?

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You know, the town. The only town in spain.

Is it clear to everyone here what sterilizing immunity is? That's when the immune system prevents the virus from replicating inside the host. As far as I know, no one representing a reputable, scientifically-informed source has claimed that any of covid vaccines provide that -- in fact, the quotes in the article from Zaks show that representatives from the pharmaceutical industry have been giving advice for some time now that would make no sense if that was the paradigm in which they were working.

Granted, scientists have also been consistent in saying that this lack of sterilizing immunity does not mean that the vaccines do not curb the pandemic -- here's an article in Scientific American from January that makes this point quite effectively.

Anyone who reads the Substack piece or the Scientific American article and comes away with any message other than "it's good that we have these covid vaccines" should read them again. I know we don't need any more threads here filled with people who treat the fact that the covid vaccines are not miracle drugs as though this means that they're worthless, or not worth the risk to receive.

Mark Quayle said:

How did "flattening the curve" turn into "mitigation efforts"?

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The how is easy.
A too large and significant portion of the population decided that flattening the curve didn't apply to them so they simply refused to participate in the effort. Herd immunity has yet to be reached because that same group insists on perpetuating the virus, its disease, and the surrounding ramifications (such as shut downs).

The why is the harder part for me to understand.

If only:

Mark Quayle said:

If we had gone with Herd Immunity, who's to say we wouldn't have had this thing under control months ago, sans variants?

Click to expand...

Mark Quayle said:

Can't help but notice how attention has migrated from "Flattening the Curve" vs "Herd Immunity", to "multiple variants" and "protracted mitigation". If we had gone with Herd Immunity, who's to say we wouldn't have had this thing under control months ago, sans variants?

Click to expand...

When we flattened the curve we were near a 9/11’s worth of deaths every single day so we had to do things to get those deaths down unless you are okay with 3,000 dead Americans everyday.

Just letting this disease run rampant would have given us a death count of almost 6 million Americans from the disease (based on survivability of COVID-19). We’d also have to tack on a couple million more because our health care system would have completely collapsed. I’m not talking about just elective surgeries not getting done, getting in a car accident or having a heart attack wouldn’t be treatable due to this disease being allowed to rampant.

People in charge saw these numbers and decided they were unacceptable. Maybe you are okay with 1 in 50 Americans in a body bag but the vast majority are not and will not blissfully go about their daily lives as if nothing is wrong as it happens.

I've been saying this for quite a while now. The vaccines are not preventing infection and spread, they are providing a shield for the user in terms of severity of Covid symptoms.

What this means is we can drop the pretense that it is the unvaccinated which are solely responsible for the spread of the virus. We need to be continuing the effort to reduce spread using social distancing, masking, avoiding indoor and/or crowded spaces, and improving ventilation systems for indoor facilities which are necessary.

Nithavela said:

The implications are:

You're going to get covid sooner or later for the foreseable future, so get a vaccine so your immune system is prepared, as well as taking supplements that have been proven to help with fighting the virus.
Keep masking and social distancing to keep the load on hospitals as low as possible, at least for this autumn and winter.
If you can't take a vaccine and you have some sort of high-risk condition, put your affairs in order.

I also doubt that every infection of covid-19 will be as deadly as the first infection. After a while, I'd expect people to just "catch a cold" more often, and some of those colds will feel a bit different because it's really covid-19.

Click to expand...

I refuse to live my life in constant unwarranted fear. The flu is here to stay, colds are here to stay, and if the Covid is here to stay, I really don't care. I wear a seat belt because 1 it makes sense to me, and 2 it is the law (whether the Government has the right to make it a law or not), and 3 it helps keep me vertical in the seat. In other words, because I choose to wear it. If the government make vaccinations law, I might comply, but ONLY because it is the law. You can be sure that I will do all I legally can to see that government doesn't get re-elected. It was outrageous enough that they required masks, social distancing, etc. But to do something to my body I don't want done is way too much.

FenderTL5 said:

The how is easy.
A too large and significant portion of the population decided that flattening the curve didn't apply to them so they simply refused to participate in the effort. Herd immunity has yet to be reached because that same group insists on perpetuating the virus, its disease, and the surrounding ramifications (such as shut downs).

The why is the harder part for me to understand.

If only:

Click to expand...

Haha, yet the jury is still out on the effectiveness of the mitigati— er, flattening-the-curve efforts, so I hear.

This panic is making me sick.