And a new record

The Barbarian · Aug 14, 2021

COVID-19 hospitalizations among those in their 30s have reached a new record, U.S. data shows, with doctors attributing the rise to the Delta variant’s grip over the unvaccinated.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the rate among those between the ages 30 and 39 entering the hospital is 2.5 among 100,000 people as of Wednesday, up from a January record of 2 per 100,000. Doctors pointed to the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant, which has hit an age group once thought largely impervious to hospitalization. That risk is also amplified by increased socialization, providing more avenues for those unvaccinated in their 30s to catch the virus. “It loves social mobility,” Dr. James Fiorica, chief medical officer of a hospital in Sarasota, Florida, told The Wall Street Journal. “An unvaccinated 30-year-old can be a perfect carrier.”

It’s led some doctors in Arkansas to monitor younger patients for possible organ failure. “This age group pretty much went unscathed,” Nikhil Meena, the medical director of the University of Arkansas Medical Center’s ICU, said. “They’re all out there doing their thing and getting infected and getting sick enough to be in this hospital.”
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Among Ages 30-39 Reaches New Record: U.S. Data

This one is looking to be worse than the last surge. Thanks to all those who didn't get vaccinated and became incubators for more virulent variants of the virus.

Original Happy Camper · Aug 14, 2021

However, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention can look at specific cases of the coronavirus through genetic sequencing. But there isn’t a specific test that will tell you if you have the delta variant.

"with doctors attributing the rise to the Delta variant’s"

SO IS THIS STATEMENT SPECULATION

Is there a specific COVID-19 test for the delta variant? What you need to know

The Barbarian · Aug 14, 2021

Original Happy Camper said:
SO IS THIS STATEMENT SPECULATION

No, it's the opinion of physicians familiar with the virus and variants. And CDC testing indicates about 88% of new infections are the Delta variant.

Local health departments and the Centers for Disease Control can take those samples from your nose swab or saliva test and sequence its genome to figure out what variant of the virus you have. Sequencing can happen days or even weeks later, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California San Francisco.

They do this to study how quickly the virus is mutating and which variants are becoming dominant in different parts of the country. However, they’re not typically sharing this information with the people whose samples are sequenced, the New York Times reports.
How do you know if you have the delta variant of COVID-19? | WGN-TV

Subdood · Aug 15, 2021

The Barbarian said:
< snip >

This one is looking to be worse than the last surge. Thanks to all those who didn't get vaccinated and became incubators for more virulent variants of the virus.

That narrative is totally bogus.

Here's a more truthful set of scientific facts:

Based on the scientific evidence, the narrative that unvaccinated people are viral factories for more dangerous variants is false.
Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, vaccines put evolutionary pressure on viruses to speed up mutations and create more virulent and dangerous variants.
Viruses mutate all the time, and if you have a vaccine that doesn’t block infection completely, then the virus will mutate to evade the immune response within that person. That is one of the distinct features of the COVID shots — they’re not designed to block infection. They allow infection to occur and at best lessen the symptoms of that infection.
In an unvaccinated person, the virus does not encounter the same evolutionary pressure to mutate into something stronger. So, if SARS-CoV-2 does end up mutating into more lethal strains, then mass vaccination is the most likely driver.
So far, SARS-CoV-2 variants are at most 0.3% different from the original Wuhan virus. Such minor variation means the virus will not present itself as a new virus. If you’ve recovered from COVID-19, your immune system will still recognize it.

Full story here

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2021

Subdood said:
Based on the scientific evidence, the narrative that unvaccinated people are viral factories for more dangerous variants is false.

Nope. It's very easy to understand why they are viral factories for more dangerous variants:
1. Unvaccinated people are much, much more likely to be infected.
Notice that new cases are almost entirely unvaccinated people.
2. Viruses cannot mutate unless they replicate.
If you don't know why this is true, I can explain, but I'm not going to insult your intelligence unless asked.
3. Viruses can't replicate unless they have infected someone.

Simple.

Subdood said:
Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, vaccines put evolutionary pressure on viruses to speed up mutations and create more virulent and dangerous variants.

No. That's a common myth, but it's false. Useful mutations do not occur in response to environmental pressure. Luria and Delbruck got their shared Nobel for demonstrating this fact.

Subdood said:
Viruses mutate all the time, and if you have a vaccine that doesn’t block infection completely, then the virus will mutate to evade the immune response within that person.

No. See above. Mutations happen at a remarkably constant rate for a given virus. Consequently, the more people infected, and the more particles produced in those infections, the more mutants. The virus does not mutate more in vaccinated people. It mutates less, because:
1. most vaccinated people never get infected.
2. even when they are infected, fewer virus particle are produced.

Subdood said:
In an unvaccinated person, the virus does not encounter the same evolutionary pressure to mutate into something stronger. So, if SARS-CoV-2 does end up mutating into more lethal strains, then mass vaccination is the most likely driver.

See above. This delusion is based on an incorrect idea of mutation and evolution.

The Luria–Delbrück experiment (1943) (also called the Fluctuation Test) demonstrated that in bacteria, genetic mutations arise in the absence of selective pressure rather than being a response to it. Thus, it concluded Darwin's theory of natural selection acting on random mutations applies to bacteria as well as to more complex organisms. Max Delbrück and Salvador Luria won the 1969 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in part for this work.
Luria–Delbrück experiment - Wikipedia

Whoever told you that story knows no more about the issue than you do. This is why doctors and scientists know that unvaccinated people are incubators for more dangerous variants.

Thomas White · Aug 15, 2021

Subdood said:
That narrative is totally bogus.

Here's a more truthful set of scientific facts:

Based on the scientific evidence, the narrative that unvaccinated people are viral factories for more dangerous variants is false.

Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, vaccines put evolutionary pressure on viruses to speed up mutations and create more virulent and dangerous variants.

Viruses mutate all the time, and if you have a vaccine that doesn’t block infection completely, then the virus will mutate to evade the immune response within that person. That is one of the distinct features of the COVID shots — they’re not designed to block infection. They allow infection to occur and at best lessen the symptoms of that infection.

In an unvaccinated person, the virus does not encounter the same evolutionary pressure to mutate into something stronger. So, if SARS-CoV-2 does end up mutating into more lethal strains, then mass vaccination is the most likely driver.

So far, SARS-CoV-2 variants are at most 0.3% different from the original Wuhan virus. Such minor variation means the virus will not present itself as a new virus. If you’ve recovered from COVID-19, your immune system will still recognize it.

Full story here

An area's number of deaths and illnesses compared to the number of vaccinated should be enough to convince a person with even a modicum of common sense. The above shows the length people will go to deny the obvious because they don't want to accept that the world is how they view it.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2021

Having a degree in microbiology, and having done graduate work in immunology, and operating an immunology clinic, it's um... interesting to have someone with no understanding of these things at all, lecturing me on "the science."

Subdood · Aug 15, 2021

The Barbarian said:
Having a degree in microbiology, and having done graduate work in immunology, and operating an immunology clinic, it's um... interesting to have someone with no understanding of these things at all, lecturing me on "the science."

The OP, indeed, the entire "defense" of the OP is nothing but cited articles from mass media sources:

The first one, post #1, from the Daily Beast
The second one, post #3, from WGN-TV and,
The third one, post #5, from Wikipedia :doh:

And you totally dissed the article I cited, written by an actual doctor in this field, likely having never even read it, judging by the rather curmudgeonly contrary comments that were made about it.

Want to know what Wikipedia and the editor of The Daily Beast says about The Daily Beast?

It has been characterized as a "high-end tabloid" by Noah Shachtman, the site's editor-in-chief since 2018.

It would seem to me that someone with all the supposed credentials you claim could conjure up something more credible than what you did by way of backup for the claim in the OP.

I mean seriously, a "degreed microbiologist" with some "graduate work in immunology" sourcing a "high end tabloid?" Tsk, tsk. If this is supposed to impress, it doesn't. In fact, I give it an F.

Maybe it's time to put this nonsense on "Ignore" for good. I fear it's weakening my immune system, and we can't have that.

In summary, nothing you cited supports the snarky claim made in the OP, to wit: Thanks to all those who didn't get vaccinated and became incubators for more virulent variants of the virus. A claim which I contend, and supported with more than tabloid hysteria, is entirely untrue.

Thomas White · Aug 15, 2021

The Barbarian said:
Having a degree in microbiology, and having done graduate work in immunology, and operating an immunology clinic, it's um... interesting to have someone with no understanding of these things at all, lecturing me on "the science."

I have two degree in political science and thirteen years of experience in political campaigns. In continuously amazes me that people actually believe we are conspiring behind their back to cheat or control them. Most of the time, we're just trying to figure our which paperwork to use and who to contact about specific issues. Governing is very mundane work compared to the theories about what we do.

Thomas White · Aug 15, 2021

Subdood said:
The OP, indeed, the entire "defense" of the OP is nothing but cited articles from mass media sources:

The first one, post #1, from the Daily Beast
The second one, post #3, from WGN-TV and,
The third one, post #5, from Wikipedia

And you totally dissed the article I cited, written by an actual doctor in this field, likely having never even read it, judging by the rather curmudgeonly contrary comments that were made about it.

Want to know what Wikipedia and the editor of The Daily Beast says about The Daily Beast?

It has been characterized as a "high-end tabloid" by Noah Shachtman, the site's editor-in-chief since 2018.

It would seem to me that someone with all the supposed credentials you claim could conjure up something more credible than what you did by way of backup for the claim in the OP.

I mean seriously, a "degreed microbiologist" with some "graduate work in immunology" sourcing a "high end tabloid?" Tsk, tsk. If this is supposed to impress, it doesn't. In fact, I give it an F.

Maybe it's time to put this nonsense on "Ignore" for good. I fear it's weakening my immune system, and we can't have that.

In summary, nothing you cited supports the snarky claim made in the OP, to wit: Thanks to all those who didn't get vaccinated and became incubators for more virulent variants of the virus. A claim which I contend, and supported with more than tabloid hysteria, is entirely untrue.

The forum requires a current event article to be used to start a topic, not a research paper from an academic journal.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2021

Thomas White said:
I have two degree in political science and thirteen years of experience in political campaigns. In continuously amazes me that people actually believe we are conspiring behind their back to cheat or control them. Most of the time, we're just trying to figure our which paperwork to use and who to contact about specific issues. Governing is very mundane work compared to the theories about what we do.

Wonks are probably not very exciting to most people, but they know how to get things done.

The Barbarian · Aug 15, 2021

Having a degree in microbiology, and having done graduate work in immunology, and operating an immunology clinic, it's um... interesting to have someone with no understanding of these things at all, lecturing me on "the science."

Subdood said:
The OP, indeed, the entire "defense" of the OP is nothing but cited articles from mass media sources:

That's nice. I just pointed out the fallacies in the claim, and showed you why. And because I actually know what I'm talking about, mine is correct. Would you like some more information from the literature?

Subdood said:
The first one, post #1, from the Daily Beast

Nope. From CDC, chief medical officer of a hospital, and the medical director of the University of Arkansas Medical Center’s ICU. Nice try, though.

The second one, post #3, from WGN-TV

Nope. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California San Francisco.

and,
The third one, post #5, from Wikipedia

Yep. But as you probably realize by now, it's a fact. Luria and Delbruck independently demonstrated that useful mutations do not occur according to need in microorganisms, but happen randomly.

Genetics 2016 Feb;202(2):367-8
Salvador Luria and Max Delbrück on Random Mutation and Fluctuation Tests
and
Methods Mol Biol 2018;1672:21-31
Measuring Mutation Rates Using the Luria-Delbrück Fluctuation Assay
Abstract
The Luria-Delbrück fluctuation assay is one of the most commonly used methods for measuring the mutation rate in microorganisms. Specifically, it is used to measure the mutation rate at a particular locus or loci at which mutations give rise to a selectable phenotype. Here, I outline the essential features of performing Luria-Delbrück fluctuation assays as well as common missteps and tips for improving the accuracy of mutation rate estimates. In addition, I provide tools for analyzing data from fluctuation assays. This 96-well plate protocol has been optimized for use in yeast but should perform equally well for a range of microorganisms using standard microbiological methods.

You might find it a bit challenging, but it's all there.

Subdood said:
I mean seriously, a "degreed microbiologist" with some "graduate work in immunology" sourcing a "high end tabloid?" Tsk, tsk. If this is supposed to impress, it doesn't. In fact, I give it an F.

I'm trying to make it easier for you to understand. Go ahead. Check the links. You'll find it difficult, because it's written for people who are familiar with the field.

And you've shown us that you don't know anything about it.

In summary, nothing you cited supports the snarky claim made in the OP, to wit: Thanks to all those who didn't get vaccinated and became incubators for more virulent variants of the virus. A claim which I contend, and supported with more than tabloid hysteria, is entirely untrue.

I get that you don't want to accept it. But all of it is factual. And as you learned, people who actually know what they're talking about, acknowledge that unvaccinated people are incubators for new variants of the virus, for the reasons I showed you.

Instead, you believed someone who just told you a story, when they don't know any better than you do.

Oh, Joe Mercola, your source?

CAPE CORAL, Fla. — Dr. Joseph Mercola’s website has a host of blogs about health tips, COVID-19 and vaccines. One post claims to treat COVID-19 for less than $1 a day. Wednesday morning he posted he'll remove all of his content in 48 hours.
...
The article he's referring to points to researchers and regulators who have called Mercola a spreader of misinformation. That allegation is based on his published writings, like one published on his website that references studies from Italy that state previous COVID-19 infection is just as effective as vaccination, saying antibodies from the virus last in your body for at least nine months. The Centers for Disease Control, however says there's no way to know how long antibodies last inside each person.
https://www.fox4now.com/news/corona...ealth-articles-after-claims-of-misinformation

And he's been banned on You Tube after posting numerous entries of misinformation.

The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has warned Joseph Mercola, an osteopath who heads a large online “alternative medicine” business empire, to stop selling products falsely touted as preventing or treating COVID-19.
FDA warns Mercola: Stop selling fake COVID remedies and cures - Alliance for Science

He apparently never did any research work in microbiology or immunology, other than his time in training to be an osteopath. Among other things, Mercola preaches that cell phones cause brain cancer, but offers no evidence to support that story.

To recap:
It's very easy to understand why the unvaccinated are viral factories for more dangerous variants:
1. Unvaccinated people are much, much more likely to be infected. New cases are almost entirely unvaccinated people.

2. Viruses cannot mutate unless they replicate.

3. Viruses can't replicate unless they have infected someone.

loveofourlord · Aug 16, 2021

At most the vaccines might speed up the rate at which covid becomes immune to vaccines and those already infected, BUT that sonly because those vaccinated are at a faster rate. it's going to happen eventually.

I think part of the issue is the term super bug, so often heard anti antibiotic people and such confuse more resistant with deadlier because of the term Superbug, it just sounds nastier. Instead of it's just harder to kill with conventional means.

The Barbarian · Aug 16, 2021

loveofourlord said:
At most the vaccines might speed up the rate at which covid becomes immune to vaccines

No. For the reasons I mentioned. In case you missed it:

1. Unvaccinated people are much, much more likely to be infected. New cases are almost entirely unvaccinated people.

2. Viruses cannot mutate unless they replicate.

3. Viruses can't replicate unless they have infected someone.

It doesn't seem very difficult to understand, does it?

The Barbarian · Aug 16, 2021

loveofourlord said:
I think part of the issue is the term super bug, so often heard anti antibiotic people and such confuse more resistant with deadlier because of the term Superbug, it just sounds nastier. Instead of it's just harder to kill with conventional means.

Antibiotics have no effect on viruses. Viruses have no metabolic processes to disrupt. They hijack your metabolic processes to replicate.

If this puzzles you, we can talk about it.

loveofourlord · Aug 16, 2021

The Barbarian said:
Antibiotics have no effect on viruses. Viruses have no metabolic processes to disrupt. They hijack your metabolic processes to replicate.

If this puzzles you, we can talk about it.

No I know that, I'm saying where people think that vaccines and such make them deadlier. I've heard people that think antibiotics make bacteria deadlier. I suspect people that have that level of understanding of superbugs are applying it to viruses and vaccines.

well what I mean is that the virus is mutating all the time, it will get occasionally a mutation that will make it more resistant to antibodies from those that already got it, but when you get millions of people vaccinated it the pressure for those that are resistant to those antibodies will get dominant. Thankfully covid isn't too fast a mutator, or we really be in trouble since were still mostly resistant to even the variants.

The Barbarian · Aug 17, 2021

loveofourlord said:
No I know that, I'm saying where people think that vaccines and such make them deadlier. I've heard people that think antibiotics make bacteria deadlier.

They can. Alexander Flemming, who discovered penicillin, predicted that careless and indiscriminate us of antibiotics would lead to the evolution of bacterial resistance to the drug. And it did. When I was a child, doctors used it for almost everything, even when there wasn't clear evidence of bacterial infection. As a result, penicillin is mostly ineffective now.

That's why, when you are given antibiotics, the instructions are very clear on taking them. Because if you stop just when you feel better, some of the bacteria may survive and they are often more resistant to the antibiotic. Over time, strong resistance can evolve thereby.

That's not how it works with viruses.

well what I mean is that the virus is mutating all the time,

The point is, it can't mutate unless it's replicating in a host. So the fewer people infected, the fewer the mutations. Which reduces the likelihood of a resistant variant. Hence the importance of vaccination, which reduces infections.

it will get occasionally a mutation that will make it more resistant to antibodies from those that already got it, but when you get millions of people vaccinated it the pressure for those that are resistant to those antibodies will get dominant.

So far, that's not been the case. The vaccines are very effective against the Delta variant. In particular, the mRNA vaccines are effective regardless of the variant. But eventually, it's likely to be like the influenza vaccine, tuned to the dominant variant, each season.

Thankfully covid isn't too fast a mutator, or we really be in trouble since were still mostly resistant to even the variants.

Coronavirus Mutates Fast; New Strains Can Arise in Single Patient

Study shows SARS-CoV-2 can swiftly evolve in immunocompromised patients, can evade antibodies, treatment
Coronavirus Mutates Fast; New Strains Can Arise in Single Patient

The thing is, the better the virus gets at infecting people, the less likely it is that a new variant will be more effective. A well-adapted organism in a constant environment, is kept by natural selection from evolving very much.

And a new record

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