Let's Keep an Eye on Texas and Mississippi

Akita Suggagaki said:

What point are you trying to make? That COVID has been exaggerated? Perhaps in your world it has not been as bad. Or what is your point and your motive for trying to make it?

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Yes, the risk of COVID to younger, healthy adults and children has been exaggerated. Drastically.

There's no questioning that people have died. Many people. But there's also no questioning that over half of those that died were over the age of 75, and 30% were over the age of 85.

This graphic from the CDC illustrates vividly just how poorly people understand the risks of COVID;


You'll notice that there were far more cases amongst younger people, but far FEWER deaths, whereas the number of cases for those over the age of 85 was much smaller, but resulted in the greatest share of deaths.

If there's one thing this graphic illustrates, it's that the risk of COVID is exponentially higher in the elderly, yet our mitigation measures have not reflected that indisputable fact. At all. Instead, you have loons in Michigan saying that we need 2-4 year olds wearing masks OUTSIDE when there is no science or evidence that suggests that will help anything. They want to be seen as "doing something" and/or "taking the virus seriously", but it's all just meaningless pandemic theater that accomplishes nothing.

Lockdowns don't protect the elderly, which hopefully by now you can see are the ones most at risk. They protect the "laptop-class", those that are able to work "safer at home", while the "essential workers", to include your elderly Walmart greeters and "health ambassadors", are exposed daily. And all the while none of our mitigation measures show any correlation, much less any causation, whatsoever in stemming the pandemic or saving lives.

So yes, the risk posed by COVID has not only been exaggerated for a vast majority of the young population, but public health has also failed completely at protecting the vulnerable.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Ok, but not just the elderly.

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Over 50% of deaths in the US have been elderly. That's just a simple fact.

Akita Suggagaki said:

There is a pretty long list of other underlying medical conditions as risk factors. Someone transmits it to the elderly and these others. Over 400,000 deaths. Not a concern?

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You say you work in a hospital. So you of all people should know that you cannot control viral spread. If you could, we have eradicated the flu or even the common cold by now. But you can't. And never before have there been these draconian measures to attempt to control the uncontrollable.

Perhaps people should judge for themselves the risks they are willing to take concerning COVID rather than having their safety "dictated" to them. As you've pointed out a few times, there have been (as of this posting) 570,421 deaths. So clearly all of the mitigation measures of the past 15 months HAVE. NOT. WORKED.

It's past time for public health to surrender the dictatorial like leadership they have assumed and return risk assessment and mitigation to the people as it was prior to the pandemic.

What about the collateral damage of the mitigation measures? Should that be a concern, or should we have a myopic focus only on COVID?

Collateral Global

Akita Suggagaki said:

Would there have been more deaths without these measures? I think so.

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Not likely. We have the ability to look at countries all over the world that took different approaches. The end result has been the same. Spikes, surges, with or without mitigation measures. So there is no empirical evidence that suggests there would have been more deaths without these measures.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Does nothing stop contagion? Is our Infection control nurse a useless position?

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Your infection control nurse is a highly trained individual that works in a controlled hospital environment, not in an uncontrolled atmosphere with countless people living life normally. That isn't even a rational comparison.

Akita Suggagaki said:

COVID has been a strange one. I don't understand it. But the most vulnerable do need to be protected.

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Yes, we agree on this point.

Akita Suggagaki said:

You seem to be saying nothing can protect them. No measures are effective.

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No, that's not what I said. I said that our current mitigation measures "that we know work" do not. Masking, social distancing, lockdowns, forced quarantines of the healthy. All nonsense. And the medical communities at large knew this was nonsense before the pandemic. Not a single pandemic preparedness plan suggested any of this. Yet we tossed it all aside because people panicked, and public health lost sight of the fact that there is more than COVID that kills people.

For a list of measures that might actually protect people, see this link;
frequently-asked-questions

Akita Suggagaki said:

The CDC disagrees.

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The CDC has completely discredited itself through this pandemic. They have abandoned sound science in favor of whatever is currently politically expedient. They flip-flop their messaging on a daily basis. Just listen to Savannah Guthrie's interview with Dr. Fauci on Today. She talked of not needing to wear a mask when she picked her daughter up from the bus stop because of the new outdoor masking guidance, but her daughter had to wear one according to current regulations. Listening to Dr. Fauci flop around like a flounder trying to give a coherent answer to why Savannah Guthrie, who said she was not fully vaccinated, could walk down the street without a mask but her school-aged daughter, could not was painful. Infuriating even. This guy is allegedly our top infectious disease expert, and he can't even give a logical answer to such a simple question. Devoid of any kind of logic whatsoever. Yet this is what the CDC says, so Dr. Fauci repeats it even though it makes no sense.

I'm not sure at what point the CDC became our overlords. People disregard the CDC every day. Recommendations for alcohol? Abstain. Recommendations for smoking? Don't do it. Recommendations for eating rare meat? Order it well done. Yet people disregard these CDC recommendations every single day. Suddenly, we must bow before whatever the CDC says. They have become a dictatorial organization, and it needs to stop.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Total lockdowns probably a mistake. I think though better to error on the side of caution within reasonable limits. It is those limits that are in question.

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Total lockdowns absolutely were a mistake, and carried with them immense collateral damage. But no one really wants to talk about that. So long as we slow COVID, it doesn't matter if more kids are committing suicide, or if more people are depressed and overdosing on drugs, or if poverty is increasing due to lost jobs of the forced shutdowns, or if our children are falling behind in their education due to endless school closures.... None of these things seem to matter to the CDC or public health. They have failed. Dismally.

Anyway, back to the OP.

How are Texas and Mississippi doing? Pretty good. Still.

Akita Suggagaki said:

I agree they have been a disappointment. They are supposed to be THE pandemic experts. If we cannot listen to them who else is there?

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There are 3 doctors that authored the Great Barrington Declaration. They are;


These doctors have spoken against the narrative, and have been punished for it. As Hammster said, they've been attacked for simply saying something counter to the approved narrative. But if you research these doctors, they are respected professionals in their field. Dr. Kulldorff has been cited in over 25,000 medical papers. It wasn't until the pandemic and their resistance to propagate the approved narrative that they were attacked and marginalized.

They have written much about the pandemic and the completely and utterly failed response to it. It may be easy to try to write this off as doctors with varying opinions, but pair these doctors writings with reality and it's easy to see that the CDC has become little more than a shill for political propaganda rather than an organization concerned about public health.

probinson said:

Anyway, back to the OP.

How are Texas and Mississippi doing? Pretty good. Still.


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I looked at Texas in Covidactnow. While the rest of the country has cases dropping, they are flat in Texas. The rate is low enough that they’ll probably be ok. Particularly since they’re in a warm part of the country. But Texas and Florida are a bit higher than other states in that area.

Opening fully wasn’t outrageous. I still would have waited a bit longer.

In their infinite wisdom, Republican politicians in Texas and Mississippi have embraced the Brazil- India model when it comes to dealing with the greatest public healthcare crisis in a century!

In their defense, Brasil and India have been able to able to keep their power grids and water systems operating without disruption!

Meanwhile, back here in the land of reality, Texas and Mississippi continue to perform considerably better than states that have embraced THE SCIENCE™! I mean good golly, Michigan is now masking 2-4 year olds at daycare centers while the neanderthals in Texas and Mississippi run around with their bare naked faces exposed for the world to see! How could this happen?!

Also, don't buy the gaslighting that India didn't follow THE SCIENCE™! Back on December 30, the Wall Street Journal extolled the effectiveness of masking in India with a headline that boldly declared, "Covid-19 Was Consuming India, Until Nearly Everyone Started Wearing Masks". Here. I'll link it so you can read it;

covid-19-was-consuming-india-until-nearly-everyone-started-wearing-masks-11609329603

Here's the TLDR;


But as we all now know, this article didn't age well. Despite "almost universal acceptance of masks without much debate", India is now the epicenter of the pandemic, and just the latest of an ever growing list of examples of THE SCIENCE™! declaring victory before the game is over.

Actually Texas has been pretty level, where the rest of the country is rapidly improving. Texas is level at a fairly low level, but that’s generally true for the states that are warmer. It’s probably low enough that Texas is willing to live with it, but I think there were consequences.

hedrick said:

Actually Texas has been pretty level, where the rest of the country is rapidly improving. Texas is level at a fairly low level, but that’s generally true for the states that are warmer. It’s probably low enough that Texas is willing to live with it, but I think there were consequences.

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Texas cases have dropped 21% in the last 14 days. That's not "pretty level". That's decreasing.

Also, the only reason the rest of the county is "rapidly improving" is because they were so much worse to begin with. You can see that in the graph I posted. Michigan was out of control, and now they're seeing a precipitous decline (no doubt because they had the good sense to mask toddlers...), but they're STILL worse off than Texas and Mississippi both.

You are welcome to "think" there were consequences from Texas lifting their COVID measures, but there is no empirical data that would suggest that is the case.

Akita Suggagaki said:

Texas and Mississippi also rank 38 and 39 for Tests/mil pop. Without adequate testing who knows what's going on?

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Well, Texas hospitalizations continue to decline, and have dropped 8% in the last 14 days. Texas currently has a test positivity rate of 4.5% and dropping.

This idea that we need test everyone with the sniffles is nonsense. Watching things like test-positivity rates, hospitalizations, CLI ER admissions... that tells you what's going on in that area. All of those markers continue to decline in Texas.

probinson said:

Texas cases have dropped 21% in the last 14 days. That's not "pretty level". That's decreasing.

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Take a look at the graph in post 193. Sure looks like flattening to me. Or look at U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker. Again, all numbers largely flattened, with a slight downward trend. As I said above, the absolute number is low enough that Texas may not care.

hedrick said:

Take a look at the graph in post 193. Sure looks like flattening to me. Or look at U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker. Again, all numbers largely flattened, with a slight downward trend. As I said above, the absolute number is low enough that Texas may not care.

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I posted the graph in post 193...

A 21% decrease in cases over the last 14 days is not "flattening". As the curve reaches the bottom of the graph, it can't decline as rapidly. COVID isn't going away, and I would say an incident rate of 5-10 per 100,000 population is pretty darn low (.00005%).

In your earlier post, you said that the other states are "rapidly improving". That's true, but that's only because they were so bad off in the first place. In the graph in post 193, Michigan is "rapidly improving", but they are still at a level more than 3x that of Texas.