I believe that it is what they believed, and that is what matters. In an incitement case, it does not matter if it is what you intended. If you yell "fire" in a crowded theater, you may well intend a prank and not intend for anyone to get hurt. Despite that, if people do panic and are hurt, you are likely to be convicted of incitement, since a "reasonable man" understands that is the likely result.
In the same way, Trump may not have intended what happened; and short of Trump taking the stand, we likely won't ever know what Trump's intentions were. What we do know is the words he said in the six months leading up to and following the election -- about how it was "rigged" and "no more free elections," and "fight." Again, using that type of language over that long a period, he should have known what would happen.
In fact, as President, he would have received the security briefings about what some of the right-wing groups were doing. He had the power to order the National Guard to deploy, to protect the Capitol Building and DC. Yet he didn't do it, instead we hear some rumor that he "ordered" it -- but as Commander in Chief, if he had ordered it, it would have been done. Period.
Last, there is the issue of what occurred on the afternoon of Jan 6. You have the President in the White House. Again, rumors claim he was watching the coverage on TV and "cheering" it on. Even if that isn't true, the fact remains, as President, he would have been receiving updates about the security situation at the Capitol -- it likely would have been put on a TV for him, so he could see first-hand. And, again, aides have claimed they kept telling the President that he needed to intervene, at a minimum he needed to Tweet to tell his followers to go home.
That is the second part that Trump supporters seem to ignore. The riot started, and Trump knew about it and did nothing. He didn't Tweet to his followers to stop, he didn't activate the National Guard to take back the Capitol; instead he did nothing -- for over two hours. He only finally intervened after one of his followers had been killed, at which point he finally released a video telling the rioters to go home, and that he loved them very much.
Yes, you can argue that Pres. Trump didn't intend to start the riot; that he didn't plan it. The issue is, he had to know, based on security briefings, what was planned -- and he did nothing to stop it until one of his followers had been killed.
