Nature's sharp corrections: Global Warming

mindlight · Feb 11, 2021

Most studies of climate history show a planetary history of cyclical rises and falls of temperature. There have been some very rapid falls in temperature after sharp rises. Given that industrialisation has clearly made a contribution to the present global warming and rise in CO2 levels can we expect a sharp natural correction to this and the advent of an ice age?

Or has the growth of mankind's dominance reached a point where natural correctives have been neutralised or rendered ineffective e.g. reduction in forests, acidity in oceans, concrete instead of plants. Of course a nuclear winter, asteroid strike or major volcanic eruption could massively reduce global temperatures overnight. We always assume that things will carry on pretty much as they have but catastrophies pock mark the planets history so I wonder where this certainty about global warming being an inevitable trend comes from.

Can the planet or extra terrestrial sources still correct global warming with a new ice age or has that possibility already passed, so it is entirely up to us to make that correction?

OldWiseGuy · Feb 11, 2021

We're at the mercy of natural forces more than man made. However I think we can have at least some effect on climate change, but I doubt that we can get all of our ducks in a row to be of any positive effect. As a species we are much too destructive and contrarian.

Ophiolite · Feb 11, 2021

mindlight said:
Given that industrialisation has clearly made a contribution to the present global warming and rise in CO2 levels can we expect a sharp natural correction to this and the advent of an ice age?

I find the use of the word "correction" to be problematic. It implies that there is some normal or standard climate and deviations from this are "naturally corrected". Such is not the case. For the last several million years the alternation of glacials and interglacials has been largely controlled (not corrected) by changes in orbital and orientation parameters. Other effects have been secondary. Human industrial activity has introduced an entirely new factor into the situation. There is no "correction" waiting in the wings to return things to "nornal".

GDL · Feb 11, 2021

mindlight said:
Can the planet or extra terrestrial sources still correct global warming with a new ice age or has that possibility already passed, so it is entirely up to us to make that correction?

I think the answer is in your last quote of Haldane. We think we're a lot smarter than we are. Plus all the corruption and agendas come into play. So your first quote is always key.

I once heard a teacher ask how we're ever going to rule our nations & world (let alone our planetary issues), when we can't even rule our little piece of dirt (body) we each reside in.

Heavenhome · Feb 11, 2021

We never have cared for creation as the task was given to Adam in Eden and of course since the fall have progressively gotten worse.
Whilst I firmly believe as Christians we are to do our very best to care for it, on the whole our record is not good.

As far as damage done by industrialisation, I think its pretty much beyond repair, I see the whole of creation groaning now as we are told in Romans and it will only be God Himself who can save us.
The New Creation we are told of in the future is perhaps telling us that this one is ruined????

GDL · Feb 11, 2021

Heavenhome said:
The New Creation we are told of in the future is perhaps telling us that this one is ruined????

Mainly by sin as I understand. And who wants to have trash dumps & other human refuse left over?

Carl Emerson · Feb 11, 2021

Ophiolite said:
I find the use of the word "correction" to be problematic. It implies that there is some normal or standard climate and deviations from this are "naturally corrected". Such is not the case. For the last several million years the alternation of glacials and interglacials has been largely controlled (not corrected) by changes in orbital and orientation parameters. Other effects have been secondary. Human industrial activity has introduced an entirely new factor into the situation. There is no "correction" waiting in the wings to return things to "nornal".

That depends on how much of the present climate change is caused by man made factors.
Natural causes may be the main driver assisted by the CO2 factor, some scientists think this is the case.

essentialsaltes · Feb 11, 2021

mindlight said:
I wonder where this certainty about global warming being an inevitable trend comes from.

Because we understand what's driving the system and we have a good handle on the balance of energy in versus energy out. And the balance is tipping one way. Unless and until something changes, it'll stay that way. Sure an asteroid would change the balance quite a lot, but there is nothing foreseeable to change that balance.

The happy Objectivist · Feb 11, 2021

mindlight said:
Most studies of climate history show a planetary history of cyclical rises and falls of temperature. There have been some very rapid falls in temperature after sharp rises. Given that industrialisation has clearly made a contribution to the present global warming and rise in CO2 levels can we expect a sharp natural correction to this and the advent of an ice age?

Or has the growth of mankind's dominance reached a point where natural correctives have been neutralised or rendered ineffective e.g. reduction in forests, acidity in oceans, concrete instead of plants. Of course a nuclear winter, asteroid strike or major volcanic eruption could massively reduce global temperatures overnight. We always assume that things will carry on pretty much as they have but catastrophies pock mark the planets history so I wonder where this certainty about global warming being an inevitable trend comes from.

Can the planet or extra terrestrial sources still correct global warming with a new ice age or has that possibility already passed, so it is entirely up to us to make that correction?

Many scientists have been predicting a drastic cool down for the next 30-70 years due to a drop in solar activity. The way I look at it, the climate has never stayed the same for very long. It's either getting warmer or getting colder. I'd much prefer a warming Earth than a cooling one but that might be because I live in one of the coldest places in United States. It routinely gets down to 40 below here with an average nightime temperature in Winter of 15 to 25 below and only 90 days frost free.

Gene2memE · Feb 11, 2021

The happy Objectivist said:
Many scientists have been predicting a drastic cool down for the next 30-70 years due to a drop in solar activity.

Who? And who among these scientists are climatologists or helioseismologists? And who has done so in the past 20 years?

The happy Objectivist said:
The way I look at it, the climate has never stayed the same for very long. It's either getting warmer or getting colder.

No climatologist pretends otherwise.

It's not that there's a change occurring, its the rate of the change, and the potential future rate of change, that are the worry.

There's a difference between car rolling down a gentle slope, and a car falling off a near vertical cliff.

Look at the impact of the Last Glacial Maximum (a relatively quick glaciation period) on the human population in Europe. It may have halved it, or even quartered it. And that was a climactic change of ~2.0 degrees that occurred over roughly 1000 years.

SkyWriting · Feb 12, 2021

mindlight said:
Most studies of climate history show a planetary history of cyclical rises and falls of temperature. There have been some very rapid falls in temperature after sharp rises. Given that industrialization has clearly made a contribution to the present global warming and rise in CO2 levels can we expect a sharp natural correction to this and the advent of an ice age?

Or has the growth of mankind's dominance reached a point where natural correctives have been neutralized or rendered ineffective e.g. reduction in forests, acidity in oceans, concrete instead of plants? Of course, a nuclear winter, asteroid strike or major volcanic eruption could massively reduce global temperatures overnight. We always assume that things will carry on pretty much as they have but catastrophes pockmark the planets history so I wonder where this certainty about global warming being an inevitable trend comes from.

Can the planet or extraterrestrial sources still correct global warming with a new ice age or has that possibility already passed, so it is entirely up to us to make that correction?

The planet will adjust. Obviously, people aren't going to adjust. Universally we have not done ONE THING to reduce carbon. I mean there is not one thing that we have all done...
Not replace light bulbs....not even promised to turn down the heat ONE DEGREE. Not one thing. No leader has even ASKED us to do one thing to reduce carbon emissions.

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

OldWiseGuy said:
We're at the mercy of natural forces more than man made. However I think we can have at least some effect on climate change, but I doubt that we can get all of our ducks in a row to be of any positive effect. As a species we are much too destructive and contrarian.

Europe is actually moving quite rapidly towards renewables. Germany had had some days already when the electricity grid was entirely supported by renewable energy. The plans are for a reduction of carbon footprints and for electric cars. So this is possible. But the largest polluters on the planet: China then India then the USA are doing far less about this. Brazil is still chopping down rain forest and there are lots of countries that simply ignore green arguments entirely.

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

Ophiolite said:
I find the use of the word "correction" to be problematic. It implies that there is some normal or standard climate and deviations from this are "naturally corrected". Such is not the case. For the last several million years the alternation of glacials and interglacials has been largely controlled (not corrected) by changes in orbital and orientation parameters. Other effects have been secondary. Human industrial activity has introduced an entirely new factor into the situation. There is no "correction" waiting in the wings to return things to "nornal".

Personally I do believe that the planet has a certain design configuration. It was originally designed to support life. It definitely should be our own design to support life on our own home planet. However you read the history of our planet, it is clear that there has been a considerable degree of adjustment, when one extreme or the other was reached. But granted orbital changes, which we can measure and predict to some extent, do influence these patterns. Control would be a little strong since some periods of orbital closeness coincide with a continuance of ice age. I guess the question now is whether they do actually control the pattern when mankind's activities have warmed up the planet to the extent that it has.

Ice ages have been linked to the Earth's wobbly orbit – but when is the next one?

However, the scientists realised that there were limitations and challenges of their research – many of which remain today. In particular, they recognised that variations in the Earth’s orbit did not cause the ice age cycles per se – they rather paced them. A certain orbit of the Earth can be associated with many different climates. The one we have today is in fact similar to the one we had during the most intense part of the last ice age.

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

GDL said:
I think the answer is in your last quote of Haldane. We think we're a lot smarter than we are. Plus all the corruption and agendas come into play. So your first quote is always key.

I once heard a teacher ask how we're ever going to rule our nations & world (let alone our planetary issues), when we can't even rule our little piece of dirt (body) we each reside in.

Stewardship of the planet starts with ourselves. Very true, but recycling and driving electric cars might be better stewardship of the environment than me simply trying not be a smart alec.

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

Heavenhome said:
We never have cared for creation as the task was given to Adam in Eden and of course since the fall have progressively gotten worse.
Whilst I firmly believe as Christians we are to do our very best to care for it, on the whole our record is not good.

As far as damage done by industrialisation, I think its pretty much beyond repair, I see the whole of creation groaning now as we are told in Romans and it will only be God Himself who can save us.
The New Creation we are told of in the future is perhaps telling us that this one is ruined????

The USA and Europe have both experienced reforestation in the last century and Europe is making a concerted effort to go green right now. This has the incidental benefit of reducing dependence on Russian gas and Arab oil. The Biden administration now plan to rejoin the Paris accords and may even give it some teeth vis a vis China and India for example. Things are never hopeless even if the Big Solution awaits Christ's return

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

Carl Emerson said:
That depends on how much of the present climate change is caused by man made factors.
Natural causes may be the main driver assisted by the CO2 factor, some scientists think this is the case.

Exactly if we have eliminated the effects of orbital wobbles and extra carbon absorbing plankton growth as correctives to warming trends then that might well mean no more ice ages. So is it too late or are initiatives like those of Europe and the USA under Biden in with a chance?

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

essentialsaltes said:
Because we understand what's driving the system and we have a good handle on the balance of energy in versus energy out. And the balance is tipping one way. Unless and until something changes, it'll stay that way. Sure an asteroid would change the balance quite a lot, but there is nothing foreseeable to change that balance.

Scientists never predicted this happening in the sixties. They commentate after the event now it is happening. The idea that we know exactly what is going on seems a little rich. There is a considerable degree of uncertainty. But we do need to know as much as possible so decisions made are considered ones. If it is all determined by orbital wobbles then why bother with the green stuff at all, it can be expensive after all. If we are the main factor here and if we are sabotaging natural correctives by the acidification of the ocean, and the effects of overpopulation - cutting down forests for example then a change of policy is the key change required here.

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

The happy Objectivist said:
Many scientists have been predicting a drastic cool down for the next 30-70 years due to a drop in solar activity. The way I look at it, the climate has never stayed the same for very long. It's either getting warmer or getting colder. I'd much prefer a warming Earth than a cooling one but that might be because I live in one of the coldest places in United States. It routinely gets down to 40 below here with an average nightime temperature in Winter of 15 to 25 below and only 90 days frost free.

Source?

mindlight · Feb 12, 2021

SkyWriting said:
The planet will adjust. Obviously, people aren't going to adjust. Universally we have not done ONE THING to reduce carbon. I mean there is not one thing that we have all done...
Not replace light bulbs....not even promised to turn down the heat ONE DEGREE. Not one thing. No leader has even ASKED us to do one thing to reduce carbon emissions.

Not true, my lightbulbs used to be 240 watts now they need as little as 5 watts. Coal fired powerstations have disappeared or have catalytic converters here in Europe. reforestation has been occurring for a century in Europe and the USA. There are now environmental regulations and there is a considerable conversion to renewables already occurring.

OldWiseGuy · Feb 12, 2021

mindlight said:
Europe is actually moving quite rapidly towards renewables. Germany had had some days already when the electricity grid was entirely supported by renewable energy. The plans are for a reduction of carbon footprints and for electric cars. So this is possible. But the largest polluters on the planet: China then India then the USA are doing far less about this. Brazil is still chopping down rain forest and there are lots of countries that simply ignore green arguments entirely.

Smaller mostly homogeneous countries can do this. Big multiracial countries and big developing countries will have a harder time.

Nature's sharp corrections: Global Warming

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