What if NY flips?

hislegacy said:

Before you laugh or make a snarky reply, think about this for a min.

View attachment 287867

By far, the highest concentration of voters in in the NYC area. The deep blue.

But some things have happened this year that has never happened before.

Thousands of people in the last six months have moved away.

There has been (from what I have seen) four large pro Trump events, the latest being a reportedly 50 mile long car caravan.

For the first time in a very long Time the NYC Police Union has openly endorsed the President, (that is several hundred thousand people represented including family etc.).

Now add that to the number of countries that flipped Republican in 2016

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

• Broome (largest city: Binghamton)
• Cayuga (largest city: Auburn)
• Cortland (largest city: Cortland)
• Essex (largest CDP: Ticonderoga)
• Franklin (largest village: Malone)
• Madison (largest city: Oneida)
• Niagara (largest city: Niagara Falls)
• Orange (largest town: Warwick)
• Oswego (largest city: Oswego)
• Otsego (largest city: Oneonta)
• Rensselaer (largest city: Troy)
• Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)
• Saratoga (largest city: Saratoga Springs)
• Seneca (largest CDP: Seneca Falls)
• St. Lawrence (largest town: Massena)
• Suffolk (largest CDP: Brentwood)
• Sullivan (largest village: Monticello)
• Warren (largest city: Glens Falls)
• Washington (largest village: Hudson Falls)

What if it flips? What message would that send to the Democrats?

Click to expand...

Ooh boy, you guys flipped a bunch of dairy farms, corn fields, and state parks. Good on you, mate. Those blue counties on your map are the counties where people still live (and Thompkins county, which is blue because of Cornell). NYC may have started losing population recently, but the counties upstate have been losing more population, faster, and for longer.

Hazelelponi said:

People are leaving new york because of the impact a socialist-style governance has on its citizens.

As a result, it's likely republicans leaving - democrats love high tax, bad governance environments, they create them...

Click to expand...

People are leaving NYC because housing is too expensive. People are leaving the rest of NY state because it sucks. It's cold, there aren't a lot of jobs, it's far away from everything, and there's nothing to do if you're not into hunting and snowmobiling. It's like every other non-urban rust belt region, but with an ungodly amount of snow.

Hazelelponi said:

People are leaving new york because of the impact a socialist-style governance has on its citizens.

As a result, it's likely republicans leaving - democrats love high tax, bad governance environments, they create them...

Click to expand...

I'd argue they are leaving because there is so much money there because democrat states generate ridiculous amounts of wealth which does not trickle down to all it's citizens. All that wealth that is generated then drives up property values and the poor are forced out.

States that employ progressive governmental policies have better life expectancies.

rambot said:

I'd argue they are leaving because there is so much money there because democrat states generate ridiculous amounts of wealth which does not trickle down to all it's citizens. All that wealth that is generated then drives up property values and the poor are forced out.

States that employ progressive governmental policies have better life expectancies.

Click to expand...

I wonder if the posters who point the blame for population loss on big-city socialism are aware that it's their own rural counties experiencing the fastest population loss:
Population growth in Virginia slowest in a century as out-migration continues | StatChat

rambot said:

I'd argue they are leaving because there is so much money there because democrat states generate ridiculous amounts of wealth which does not trickle down to all it's citizens. All that wealth that is generated then drives up property values and the poor are forced out.

States that employ progressive governmental policies have better life expectancies.

Click to expand...

They are moving due to covid and working remotely. They are moving to NJ in droves.

hislegacy said:

Before you laugh or make a snarky reply, think about this for a min.

View attachment 287867

By far, the highest concentration of voters in in the NYC area. The deep blue.

But some things have happened this year that has never happened before.

Thousands of people in the last six months have moved away.

There has been (from what I have seen) four large pro Trump events, the latest being a reportedly 50 mile long car caravan.

For the first time in a very long Time the NYC Police Union has openly endorsed the President, (that is several hundred thousand people represented including family etc.).

Now add that to the number of countries that flipped Republican in 2016

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

• Broome (largest city: Binghamton)
• Cayuga (largest city: Auburn)
• Cortland (largest city: Cortland)
• Essex (largest CDP: Ticonderoga)
• Franklin (largest village: Malone)
• Madison (largest city: Oneida)
• Niagara (largest city: Niagara Falls)
• Orange (largest town: Warwick)
• Oswego (largest city: Oswego)
• Otsego (largest city: Oneonta)
• Rensselaer (largest city: Troy)
• Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)
• Saratoga (largest city: Saratoga Springs)
• Seneca (largest CDP: Seneca Falls)
• St. Lawrence (largest town: Massena)
• Suffolk (largest CDP: Brentwood)
• Sullivan (largest village: Monticello)
• Warren (largest city: Glens Falls)
• Washington (largest village: Hudson Falls)

What if it flips? What message would that send to the Democrats?

Click to expand...

Funny I'm seeing this post just now, just after seeing on TV a story about this... Eyewitness news channel 7 (ABC) in New York City just completed a story about how with all the people who moved away from the city due to COVID and re-registered in other counties they are going to flip normally Republican counties to Democratic. They were focusing on Suffolk county but the same holds for several counties upstate, particularly in the Catskills regions.

So, not only will NY NOT flip from Blue to Red, but in fact many of the Red counties are going to probably flip from Red to BLUE before the night is over...

Blue wave will flood NY!!!! And I absolutely guarantee that Trump will not win NY, LOL - the thought is just hilarious!!!

hislegacy said:

Before you laugh or make a snarky reply, think about this for a min.

View attachment 287867

By far, the highest concentration of voters in in the NYC area. The deep blue.

But some things have happened this year that has never happened before.

Thousands of people in the last six months have moved away.

There has been (from what I have seen) four large pro Trump events, the latest being a reportedly 50 mile long car caravan.

For the first time in a very long Time the NYC Police Union has openly endorsed the President, (that is several hundred thousand people represented including family etc.).

Now add that to the number of countries that flipped Republican in 2016

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

• Broome (largest city: Binghamton)
• Cayuga (largest city: Auburn)
• Cortland (largest city: Cortland)
• Essex (largest CDP: Ticonderoga)
• Franklin (largest village: Malone)
• Madison (largest city: Oneida)
• Niagara (largest city: Niagara Falls)
• Orange (largest town: Warwick)
• Oswego (largest city: Oswego)
• Otsego (largest city: Oneonta)
• Rensselaer (largest city: Troy)
• Richmond (coterminous with Staten Island, a borough of New York City)
• Saratoga (largest city: Saratoga Springs)
• Seneca (largest CDP: Seneca Falls)
• St. Lawrence (largest town: Massena)
• Suffolk (largest CDP: Brentwood)
• Sullivan (largest village: Monticello)
• Warren (largest city: Glens Falls)
• Washington (largest village: Hudson Falls)

What if it flips? What message would that send to the Democrats?

Click to expand...

1) Given that Democrats are expected to win the national popular vote for the foreseeable future, the problem has always been that their support has been concentrated in the large :blue"states like New York, California and Illinois which places them at a disadvantage when it comes the Electoral College!

2) Hillary Clinton received 3 million more presidential votes than Trump in 2016, so from a political perspective any out migration from states like New York could be considered a positive if it relocates in "red" states like Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas!

3) The net result of this redistribution of the Democratic vote, along with a number of other demographic trends, will be to shift traditional "red" states to "swing" status - eroding Republican support and its advantage in the Electoral College!

4) Irrespective of 2020 Election results, these are major long term political trends whereby "red" states will start falling like dominoes as the Democratic vote reaches a critical tipping point!

There are certain states that are "locks" for each party...NY is one such case for the Democrats. Texas will go blue before NY goes red.

Just sayin...

Looks like Trump is going to win Florida...

With 82% reported (i.e. ~18% to go), Trump is down by 18.5%.
Presidential Election Results

The margin is looking to be pretty similar to the 2016 results, though Trump may have narrowed the gap by a point or two if for no other reason than the lack of a well-known third-party opponent.