What effect do you feel early voting will have on the election?

SimplyMe · Oct 20, 2020

I've seen several articles recently about how there are record numbers of votes being cast early this year.

For example, I have seen in Texas that over 4.5 million votes had already been cast this year -- that is over 50% of the total vote from 2016 (which had roughly 9 million votes cast). I've seen Florida is another state with a high number of early votes and, based on turn out the last two days, it appears North Carolina is yet another state that may have record early turnout. Of more interest, all these states could be "swing" states -- particularly if voting is high in Texas.

I'm curious what effect people believe early voting will have on the election? Does this show that we will have record turnout in the 2020 election and will "conventional wisdom" remain correct, that a high turnout will help Democrats?

Paulos23 · Oct 20, 2020

It shows me people want to vote now and get it in to be sure to be counted. Speaks of a highly motivated voter base for someone.

Skewpoint · Oct 20, 2020

I expect a significantly higher than average voter turnout, but even with all the early voting, no indication if it benefits 1 candidate over another.

mark46 · Oct 20, 2020

Skewpoint said:
I expect a significantly higher than average voter turnout, but even with all the early voting, no indication if it benefits 1 candidate over another.

It's true. It is certainly POSSIBLE that the Democrats who voted early will vote for Trump, or NOT.

mark46 · Oct 20, 2020

The Democrats are responding to Trump's threats with regard to Election Day. There is an answer to voter suppression on Election Day, and by the Post Office near Election Day.

The answer is to vote early: in person, or by absentee ballot dropped off at a drop box or election site. Alternatively, mail in ballots EARLY. Today is getting to be LATE. Finally, if one votes on Election Day, come early, expect delays and problems, and expect lots of jurisdictions to close down the polls as early as they can.

The BOTTOM LINE is that Trump can certainly win, depending on turnout in the swing states. The requirement is similar to 2016: win all the swing states, and pick off PA and MI.

SimplyMe said:
I've seen several articles recently about how there are record numbers of votes being cast early this year.

For example, I have seen in Texas that over 4.5 million votes had already been cast this year -- that is over 50% of the total vote from 2016 (which had roughly 9 million votes cast). I've seen Florida is another state with a high number of early votes and, based on turn out the last two days, it appears North Carolina is yet another state that may have record early turnout. Of more interest, all these states could be "swing" states -- particularly if voting is high in Texas.

I'm curious what effect people believe early voting will have on the election? Does this show that we will have record turnout in the 2020 election and will "conventional wisdom" remain correct, that a high turnout will help Democrats?

Fantine · Oct 20, 2020

In general, Democratic votes are being suppressed. It is good they are voting early so that they can proactively clear any other hurdles the forces against democracy throw at them.

Normally, they might be discouraged but, God bless them, they know that the candidate they oppose is far from normal, competent, honest, or moral. They are voting to throw the bums out so 2020 will be the last year they are kicked around because of their race, ethnicity, or youth.

cow451 · Oct 20, 2020

SimplyMe said:
I've seen several articles recently about how there are record numbers of votes being cast early this year.

For example, I have seen in Texas that over 4.5 million votes had already been cast this year -- that is over 50% of the total vote from 2016 (which had roughly 9 million votes cast). I've seen Florida is another state with a high number of early votes and, based on turn out the last two days, it appears North Carolina is yet another state that may have record early turnout. Of more interest, all these states could be "swing" states -- particularly if voting is high in Texas.

I'm curious what effect people believe early voting will have on the election? Does this show that we will have record turnout in the 2020 election and will "conventional wisdom" remain correct, that a high turnout will help Democrats?

It will be very interesting to look at the data after the dust settles.

It could be the outcome isn't impacted at all. People are simply voting early and would've voted anyway (like I did). Biden may get early lead, but more Trump voters will level it out later. Or, anti-Trump voters may have voted early to avoid election-day intimidation tactics or Trump dirty tricks.

Or, it could be that Trump has done Biden a YUGE favor by helping the Democrats get out the vote and the early voting is the beginning of the Trump Dump..

Actually, I don't get paid days off, so I would've been hit in the wallet by voting in person. So, I did absentee by mail. And, I knew four years ago basically how I would vote in 2020 as far as Presidential race, so there was no "undecided" for cow451.

mark46 · Oct 20, 2020

Fantine said:
In general, Democratic votes are being suppressed. It is good they are voting early so that they can proactively clear any other hurdles the forces against democracy throw at them.

Normally, they might be discouraged but, God bless them, they know that the candidate they oppose is far from normal, competent, honest, or moral. They are voting to throw the bums out so 2020 will be the last year they are kicked around because of their race, ethnicity, or youth.

As always, the group I worry about is the youth. How many will really vote? We have counted on them many times, and they haven't shown up.

cow451 · Oct 20, 2020

mark46 said:
As always, the group I worry about is the youth. How many will really vote? We have counted on them many times, and they haven't shown up.

That's why we have continued to be governed primarily by old White people, mostly male.

mark46 · Oct 20, 2020

cow451 said:
That's why we have continued to be governed primarily by old White people, mostly male.

Curiously, this isn't true in most industrial countries.

Speedwell · Oct 20, 2020

cow451 said:
It will be very interesting to look at the data after the dust settles.

It could be the outcome isn't impacted at all. People are simply voting early and would've voted anyway (like I did). Biden may get early lead, but more Trump voters will level it out later. Or, anti-Trump voters may have voted early to avoid election-day intimidation tactics or Trump dirty tricks.

Or, it could be that Trump has done Biden a YUGE favor by helping the Democrats get out the vote and the early voting is the beginning of the Trump Dump..

Actually, I don't get paid days off, so I would've been hit in the wallet by voting in person. So, I did absentee by mail. And, I knew four years ago basically how I would vote in 2020 as far as Presidential race, so there was no "undecided" for cow451.

Well, you left one out. Maybe the high absentee ballot turnout is Trump supporters doing what he told them, voting by mail and then turning up to vote again in person in order to create chaos.

Speedwell · Oct 20, 2020

mark46 said:
Curiously, this isn't true in most industrial countries.

Here we regard it as one of our finest traditions, dating back to the days when only older white males could even vote.

Sparagmos · Oct 20, 2020

SimplyMe said:
I've seen several articles recently about how there are record numbers of votes being cast early this year.

For example, I have seen in Texas that over 4.5 million votes had already been cast this year -- that is over 50% of the total vote from 2016 (which had roughly 9 million votes cast). I've seen Florida is another state with a high number of early votes and, based on turn out the last two days, it appears North Carolina is yet another state that may have record early turnout. Of more interest, all these states could be "swing" states -- particularly if voting is high in Texas.

I'm curious what effect people believe early voting will have on the election? Does this show that we will have record turnout in the 2020 election and will "conventional wisdom" remain correct, that a high turnout will help Democrats?

I think this indicates record voter turnout which in turn should mean victories for Dems. More Americans identify or lean Democrat than Republican. But there is still a 12% chance that Trump could win, so I’m working hard to get out the vote!

dogs4thewin · Oct 20, 2020

mark46 said:
As always, the group I worry about is the youth. How many will really vote? We have counted on them many times, and they haven't shown up.

I am now 29 so at the very end of the youngest age range many polls give, but I have voted in most ( if not all of the elections in which I was old enough (including midterms) Way I see it if you are a citizen that is at least 18 and not under a felony sentence ( as in most states they cannot vote. If that is you at the time of a particular election and you had a chance to vote I did not do so then do NOT complain about whomever gets in office.

KCfromNC · Oct 21, 2020

SimplyMe said:
I've seen several articles recently about how there are record numbers of votes being cast early this year.

I'm curious how much of this is just normal voting being pulled forward by people smart enough not to want to stand in a crowd during a global pandemic. That is, I'm not sure I've seen data that the early voters aren't just previous normal voters voting early - compared to totally new voters that would increase the overall turnout numbers.

KCfromNC · Oct 21, 2020

mark46 said:
Curiously, this isn't true in most industrial countries.

A sign that things were really pretty good for young people, meaning while they were upset with various things not upset enough to actually do anything. We'll find out if Donald has failed badly enough to change that situation.

KCfromNC · Oct 21, 2020

dogs4thewin said:
do NOT complain about whomever gets in office.

What if you live in a state where the EC makes your vote meaningless - such as a GOP voter in CA or NY?

dogs4thewin · Oct 21, 2020

KCfromNC said:
What if you live in a state where the EC makes your vote meaningless - such as a GOP voter in CA or NY?

vote any now ( at least for things other than president if you feel that voting for president would be pointless. Remember, president is FAR from the only thing on the ballot.

SimplyMe · Oct 21, 2020

KCfromNC said:
I'm curious how much of this is just normal voting being pulled forward by people smart enough not to want to stand in a crowd during a global pandemic. That is, I'm not sure I've seen data that the early voters aren't just previous normal voters voting early - compared to totally new voters that would increase the overall turnout numbers.

Possibly, for some people. The issue is, in numerous cities, we've seen reports of people waiting hours in line to vote early.

SimplyMe · Oct 21, 2020

KCfromNC said:
What if you live in a state where the EC makes your vote meaningless - such as a GOP voter in CA or NY?

Oddly, for one of the few times since I moved here, I have a hope that my Presidential vote might have "meaning" -- and not be part of a large majority or minority that gets the Electoral votes.

What effect do you feel early voting will have on the election?

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