Oct 2016 vs Oct 2020 national election comparisons

Vylo said:

You said the rest of the post was fiction, and what I wrote was that there were militia groups that stormed the Michigan capital building and then later plotted to kidnap and kill the governor.

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Yes, that is what you wrote but it was a fictionalized account.

There was a rally at the Capitol in areas that are open to the public. Guns are permitted in them. Many different and varied groups were invited and were there according to all reports. Militiamen were some of those present. Nothing was "stormed."

As for militias, the 7 arrested plotters were said to be all from one group. There are reportedly over a dozen different militia groups in the state, and no report that I have located indicates that these particular men, those arrested, were present at the rally in the Capitol building that your story connected them with.

Tiberius Lee said:

May be all your statistics are right, but here is a statistics which is irrefutable and it will change every other statistics, prediction, norm , previous history etc . and that is .. in last 8 months more American died under this president (215K) then any other events in US history since civil war.

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The statistic you say is irrefutable has already been refuted.

Pommer said:

View attachment 286281
The Civil War only took 214,938 lives.
“Winning”?

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No, the Civil War took about 600,000 lives. Look it up.

BobRyan said:

The predictive model I referenced is correct in 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Including predicting the 2016 result months in advance.

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That model was not correct in 25 of 27 elections, as it was not created until 1996. So that means he's been right in 5 out of 6, using the primaries as the rule. It is honestly pretty sloppy and over simplistic. Yes predicting based on the primaries is going to get you more correct picks, and moreso incumbency, but we haven't had a presidency and election like this in our history. We have never had a candidate less popular than Trump either. That puts a lot of things up in the air, and the polling points to him being absolutely crushed on election night. To compare, he was given a 33% chance in 2016 by 538, but only a 13% chance today. Each day it seems to get worse for him. If he doesn't do something to turn it around FAST, he's going to get destroyed when the dust settles.

BobRyan said:

The predictive model I referenced is correct in 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Including predicting the 2016 result months in advance.

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Yes, but the problem with Norpath's predictive formula is that it made its determination in, essentially, February -- when the other candidates dropped out. COVID became a major issue in March, the economy tanked in March, unemployment spiked in March -- all things that have hurt the President. The issue is, had COVID occurred last year, then Trump would have faced a tough primary fight. The issue with Norpath's model is when things occur after the primaries are "decided" (which the Republican primaries were in February). A model that ignores the last 9 months prior to the election will work most of the time, as Norpath's model has shown, but it has a huge issue if there is a massive change in those 9 months -- as there has been this year.

Next, Trump is an "entertainer." No other politician, ever, has gotten the crowds Trump has. Much of it is because Trump is unpredictable, they want to see what thing Trump will do, or say, that will "outrage the libs." Notice that Trump's popularity with these events haven't extended to various government events -- for example the inauguration. While the crowd was not small, it wasn't especially large for an inauguration, either.

If you want to talk about the actual popularity between candidates, lets compare money. Biden, since he became the nominee, has consistently raised more money -- and it isn't rich donors, since individual donors can give a maximum of $2000. Now, yes, Trump has raised a bit more, if you talk about the campaigns total fundraising. The issue is, Trump's campaign started fundraising back in 2017 -- so he has spent three years fundraising, as compared to about a year for Biden (most of which he was not the Democratic nominee). There are reasons -- and it has a lot to do with his current "popularity" -- that Trump is having to quit spending money in several battleground states.

Darkhorse said:

No, the Civil War took about 600,000 lives. Look it up.

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True, I had only counted the soldiers killed.
What say ye when we surpass, that, too?

According to Wikipedia, there are 60 million registered Democrats and 55 million Republicans.

My phone isn't letting me paste the link, but I can add it tomorrow.

Fantine said:

According to Wikipedia, there are 60 million registered Democrats and 55 million Republicans.

My phone isn't letting me paste the link, but I can add it tomorrow.

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Political party strength in U.S. states - Wikipedia

This?

Fantine said:

Your thesis doesn't include the fact that there are fewer Republicans than Democrats in America.

The Republican Party only appeals to do demographic groups now--older white men and evangelicals. Both groups are diminishing in population.

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Plus support for Donald among senior citizens is dropping. Maybe the whole some old people might have to be sacrificed to keep the economy going thing wasn't the best messaging?

Pommer said:

View attachment 286281
The Civil War only took 214,938 lives.
“Winning”?

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Yeah, but did those people die from the Civil War or just with the Civil War? Checkmate, libs!

/s

BobRyan said:

The predictive model I referenced is correct in 25 of the last 27 presidential elections. Including predicting the 2016 result months in advance.

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Guess Donald's supporters can relax then. It is in the bag. They don't even need to bother voting.

KCfromNC said:

Yeah, but did those people die from the Civil War or just with the Civil War? Checkmate, libs!

/s

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I think you mean checkmate, Lincolnites!

Pommer said:

True, I had only counted the soldiers killed.
What say ye when we surpass, that, too?

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Aha .. make sense now . I saw your reply to my post last night, I was questioning my knowledge , but didn’t feel like looking up last night.

Any way , going back to OP , he is trying to back up his theory that Trump will win from statistics and history, and completely ignoring the current event. At the end, the current event will dictate how people will vote.

BobRyan said:

600,000 die each year from heart disease -- even when Obama was president
600,000 die each year from cancer - even when Obama was president.
over 215,000 died this year in America from the global pandemic.

There is no historic indication that the American public blame the President for biology during an election year. (or at any other time )

As long as the President is not attacking people for daring to suggest that we shut down travel from China as the Pandemic is spreading.

And as long as the President is not standing in China Town asking everyone to come on down - no mask, no social distancing while the pandemic is in its explosive phase ...

then there is not going to be a lot of "blame the president for biology" moving the polls.

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You say

“then there is not going to be a lot of "blame the president for biology" moving the polls. “

Funny thing is in your OP post you were blaming Obama for H1NI1 infection rate , now you say don’t blame president for biology ? you can’t have both ways.

BobRyan said:

has to be real evidence. actual facts.

until then...

we have the OP topic.

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Why facts for him, but not for you?

All you presented was assertions.

BobRyan said:

So what are your thoughts?

Was 2016 an even stronger Republican bid for the Presidency than the Republican attempt in 2020?
Was 2016 an even stronger Democratic bid for the Presidency than the Democratic attempt in 2020?

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This is from a post I made on July 29, 2016:

Hillary is the ultimate politician--intensely ambitious, and not above resorting to underhanded methods to get what she wants. Lady Macbeth in a pantsuit. But I think she can learn from her mistakes. She's not a demagogue, and doesn't flagrantly exhibit the symptoms of Narcissistic Personality Disorder as does her opponent.

Trump’s behavior in office is absolute confirmation. I’m not a psychiatrist, and I’m not claiming any great diagnostic acumen. But anyone who’s worked in healthcare long enough, and has seen a variety of patients would recognize the signs. As if his ineptness, his regressive politics, and his authoritarianism aren’t bad enough, his pathological personality renders him totally unfit for his office. I hope that enough people now see the same. I can’t believe that any thoughtful and responsible voter isn’t sick to death of Donald Trump’s drama and isn’t ready for some normalcy.

Albion said:

no report that I have located indicates that these particular men, those arrested, were present at the rally in the Capitol building that your story connected them with.

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What? that is literally the report you just read!

"Along with members of a group called the Wolverine Watchmen, William Null and Michael Null allegedly went on to aid "in physical surveillance" of Whitmer's vacation home in northern Michigan as a plan was being hatched to kidnap her."