Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936

JosephZ said:

"In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point."

Former Vice President Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936 - CNNPolitics

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The most interesting thing in this poll is that only 27% of democratic likely voters planned to vote on election day compared to republican at 60%. Planned early voting is 72% dems and 38% rep. This is why Biden is already saying the only way he can lose if there are chicanery with the votes.

Bobber said:

And has there ever been a time since 1936 where people feel intimidated or afraid to tell people who they're voting for this time?

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I do not feel safe displaying a Biden yard sign or bumper sticker or openly discussing my voting preference.

cow451 said:

I do not feel safe displaying a Biden yard sign or bumper sticker or openly discussing my voting preference.

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If I put a Biden sign near my house it would be trashed before the next day.

cow451 said:

I do not feel safe displaying a Biden yard sign or bumper sticker or openly discussing my voting preference.

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Because of something like this happening, where farmers made their own Biden sign with hay bales and had it set on fire? Interestingly, that is even in a Democratic area of the country.

Or maybe because of the man that was punched by his neighbor because of his Biden sign, which the neighbor felt obscured his Trump sign?

I find it interesting that some here believe that only Democrats are violent and break the law, bringing up a couple of examples of people accosted while wearing a MAGA hat, when the truth is there are issues with a minority on both sides.

Caliban said:

People should not trust polls, but rather use them as indicators of public sentiment at a given time period. They can be helpful, but misleading at times.

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The national polls have been pretty accurate. It's the state polls where it is more difficult to tease out the factors that sway the non-die hard partisans.

cow451 said:

The national polls have been pretty accurate. It's the state polls where it is more difficult to tease out the factors that sway the non-die hard partisans.

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Allan Lichtman Predicted Trump would win in 2016. His results were not poll based but used other factors. He has been correct for four decades. Incredible. He now predicts a Biden win.

cow451 said:

I do not feel safe displaying a Biden yard sign or bumper sticker or openly discussing my voting preference.

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All right well you tell me this. How many have lost their jobs or been kicked off of sports teams merely for saying they're a Trump supporter? How about Hollywood too? How many in the entertainment industry feel they'd even be given a job EVER again for expressing support for Trump?

SimplyMe said:

I find it interesting that some here believe that only Democrats are violent and break the law, bringing up a couple of examples of people accosted while wearing a MAGA hat, when the truth is there are issues with a minority on both sides.

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Nope I don't believe that at all. When you have millions and millions on both sides to say you're not going to have some nuts on either side is nuts itself. But where are great number of people loosing their jobs for saying they're supporting Biden?

...ah the victim card.

Bobber said:

All right well you tell me this. How many have lost their jobs or been kicked off of sports teams merely for saying they're a Trump supporter? How about Hollywood too? How many in the entertainment industry feel they'd even be given a job EVER again for expressing support for Trump?

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Partisan thinking is what has lead to the strong tensions in this country between culture and politics. Depending on where a person lives, they may experience strong opposition to their political beliefs. It isn't a tit-for-tat or binary situation. I personally would never put some politicians sign in my yard or wear some goofy political t-shirt. Knuckleheads on both sides are equally to blame.

Albion said:

Does it give thousands of his detractors the right to call him a murderer, racist, or a threat to democracy???

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Are you seriously arguing that the President of the United States of America has just as much right to attack his enemies (real or imagined) as average joes among the hoi polloi?
Odd place we’re in.

Albion said:

Does it give thousands of his detractors the right to call him a murderer, racist, or a threat to democracy???

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Yes--absolutely! Thats what the first amendment guarantees.

cow451 said:

He's even behind with Trump-friendly Rasmussen and Fox.

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That’s the big thing for me. I could see the argument that the pollsters are biased against him if it was just certain polls, particularly ones that usually lean away from him anyway, that were showing him losing.

But he’s even doing bad in the polls that he traditionally does well in. Polls that Trump himself has pointed to when they look good for him.

You can’t sit there and tell me that’s not significant.

Bobber said:

Nope I don't believe that at all. When you have millions and millions on both sides to say you're not going to have some nuts on either side is nuts itself. But where are great number of people loosing their jobs for saying they're supporting Biden?

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Where are the great number of people losing their jobs for supporting Trump? I will say, there are a number of "Biden supporters" that were fired -- from the Federal Government. I did a couple of searches and found three that claim that is the reason they were fired, though all admit they were told they were being fired for other reasons.

But let's assume that they were fired for being Trump supporters, I could have sworn it is Republicans that believe in businesses having the right to do pretty much whatever they want, for whatever reason, and that the "market" will decide if the business is "wrong." Does the employer not have the right to fire someone they feel is "causing issues" in the office -- regardless of the reason? I will note that a few states don't allow people to be fired for their "political views," but those tend to be the Democratic ones, like California.

As for "Biden supporters" being fired, you don't recall that Trump ordered those that are "disloyal" should be removed from their government jobs. Is that something you wish to criticize the President for? I'm guessing there are other examples but, when they've happened, Republicans haven't cared -- again, citing that employers should be free to have employees they want to work with.

lasthero said:

That’s the big thing for me. I could see the argument that the pollsters are biased against him if it was just certain polls, particularly ones that usually lean away from him anyway, that were showing him losing.

But he’s even doing bad in the polls that he traditionally does well in. Polls that Trump himself has pointed to when they look good for him.

You can’t sit there and tell me that’s not significant.

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What does it matter if the pollsters are themselves biased if the questions and the methodology are not? It would not matter.

Albion said:

Let's stick to the subject. The right to exercise free speech is part of our Constitution and is not to be denied simply because someone else doesn't care to hear what's been said. But free speech by individual citizens is under attack in this country; the right of the news corporations to exist and operate is not.

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Where is the government limiting free speech?

Bobber said:

All right well you tell me this. How many have lost their jobs or been kicked off of sports teams merely for saying they're a Trump supporter? How about Hollywood too? How many in the entertainment industry feel they'd even be given a job EVER again for expressing support for Trump?

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Nobody here has had any negative consequence of merely displaying Trump signs or voicing support. In fact just the opposite. Both extremes exist because, thanks to, in no small part Trump, civil discourse is no longer the norm.

Albion said:

Does it give thousands of his detractors the right to call him a murderer, racist, or a threat to democracy???

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I personally have never called him any of those things. I have sent frequent harsh language in his direction, however. He has earned every one of the harsh words from me.

Belk said:

Where is the government limiting free speech?

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Nowhere.

JosephZ said:

It looks like somebody didn't get the memo that this was a closed event with only a few pre-selected attendees. The Biden campaign is following the Covid rules to the letter. They would never ask supporters to come rally or show support in large numbers during a pandemic.

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Biden and Harris were all for the peaceful protestors congregating en masse ("and only a couple bad ones in the bunch!"). So yeah, when it suits their purposes...congregate folks!

Not being able to generate enough excitement to fill venues, they make excuses (a few preselected attendees, a few weeks out from Election Day?!?).