Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936

JosephZ · Oct 11, 2020

"In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point."

Former Vice President Joe Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936 - CNNPolitics

johneb · Oct 11, 2020

Trust the polls, and then run to the cave sheeple.

Blade · Oct 11, 2020

Hi

Well been here so many times before. Polls as of now can change daily. They do find fear other candidate win 63% Biden supporters vs 33% Trump. And enthusiasm for candidate 31% Biden vs 62% Trump.

But like I said.. Obama was under at this time and won so polls.. not sure I would be listening to CNN the left or Fox the right. Want to go out side of that and.. odd I don't see those being reported.

SeventyOne · Oct 11, 2020

Doesn't really align with stories like this...

Fantine · Oct 11, 2020

Well, of course. He's running against the most unlikeable opponent since King George III!

Remember him from "Hamilton?"

[Verse 3: KING GEORGE]
You’ll be back like before
I will fight the fight and win the war
For your love, for your praise
And I’ll love you till my dying days
When you’re gone, I’ll go mad
So don’t throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love

Pommer · Oct 11, 2020

SeventyOne said:
Doesn't really align with stories like this...

“If it wasn’t for cheating we wouldn’t even have an election!”

Please post better videos.

SeventyOne · Oct 11, 2020

Pommer said:
“If it wasn’t for cheating we wouldn’t even have an election!”

Please post better videos.

There's nothing wrong with that one.

Pommer · Oct 11, 2020

SeventyOne said:
There's nothing wrong with that one.

Well, yes, there’s an advertisement in it, then Hootie Blowfish talking about how we don’t need elections.
There’s plenty wrong with it.

SeventyOne · Oct 11, 2020

Pommer said:
Well, yes, there’s an advertisement in it, then Hootie Blowfish talking about how we don’t need elections.
There’s plenty wrong with it.

Get over it.

Pommer · Oct 11, 2020

SeventyOne said:
Get over it.

Oh?
Am I to assume that you’re fine with not needing elections?
Who then “decides things”?

JosephZ · Oct 11, 2020

SeventyOne said:
Doesn't really align with stories like this...

It looks like somebody didn't get the memo that this was a closed event with only a few pre-selected attendees. The Biden campaign is following the Covid rules to the letter. They would never ask supporters to come rally or show support in large numbers during a pandemic.

Gole · Oct 11, 2020

Blade said:
Hi Well been here so many times before. Polls as of now can change daily. They do find fear other candidate win 63% Biden supporters vs 33% Trump. And enthusiasm for candidate 31% Biden vs 62% Trump.

But like I said.. Obama was under at this time and won so polls.. not sure I would be listening to CNN the left or Fox the right. Want to go out side of that and.. odd I don't see those being reported.

Take the polls with a grain of salt. I went to Real Clear Politics and checked the 3 most recent polls (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html), all showing Biden up by varying amounts. I then went into the methodology for each poll and find that in each poll the sampling favored Biden, sometimes by as much as 10%. In otherwords, they sampled 10% more Democrats than Republicans.

I'm not saying that they don't do weighting or something like that, but it is hard to believe a poll's accurracy or trust it when one side is over-represented compared to the other.

JosephZ · Oct 12, 2020

Gole said:
I'm not saying that they don't do weighting or something like that, but it is hard to believe a poll's accurracy or trust it when one side is over-represented compared to the other.

538 has a useful list of pollsters that gives information on their accuracy and biases.

FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings
Based on the historical accuracy and methodology of each firm’s polls.

Nithavela · Oct 12, 2020

Pommer said:
Oh?
Am I to assume that you’re fine with not needing elections?
Who then “decides things”?

The leader, of course.

Tom 1 · Oct 12, 2020

SeventyOne said:
Doesn't really align with stories like this...

Oh if only there were only a face and a palm big enough.

He keeps missing syllables with his dramatic hand gestures.

Tom 1 · Oct 12, 2020

JosephZ said:
It looks like somebody didn't get the memo that this was a closed event with only a few pre-selected attendees. The Biden campaign is following the Covid rules to the letter. They would never ask supporters to come rally or show support in large numbers during a pandemic.

But...but...but...but...emails! Lizards, er, stuff, Clintons! Things and other things, stuff on telly. Why can’t you see it is all true?

KCfromNC · Oct 12, 2020

SeventyOne said:
Doesn't really align with stories like this...

Yeah, probably a good sign that "how many people showed up to a large public gathering during a global pandemic" isn't the best way to judge how people are planning to vote.

ETA - especially given the split in non-college educated voters for one candidate vs. the other.

hedrick · Oct 12, 2020

What you should be looking at is projections for the electoral college, e.g. 270towin. They show Biden having a lead. But state polls historically have more uncertainty than national polls.

Bobber · Oct 12, 2020

JosephZ said:
"In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time.

And has there ever been a time since 1936 where people feel intimidated or afraid to tell people who they're voting for this time?

lasthero · Oct 12, 2020

Bobber said:
And has there ever been a time since 1936 where people feel intimidated or afraid to tell people who they're voting for this time?

What makes you think people are afraid to tell people who they’re voting for on an anonymous poll?

Biden's polling better than any challenger since 1936

Well-Known Member

Active Member

Veteran

Well-Known Member

Dona Quixote

CoPacEtiC SkEpTic

Well-Known Member

CoPacEtiC SkEpTic

Well-Known Member

CoPacEtiC SkEpTic

Well-Known Member

Member

Well-Known Member

our world is happy and mundane

Optimistic sceptic

Optimistic sceptic

Regular Member

Senior Veteran

Well-Known Member

Newbie

Similar threads