Of course Trump can win

Michie

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Feb 5, 2002
165,483
55,182
Woods
✟4,582,836.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
A repeat of 2016 would reveal the centre-Left as having no response to populism

It is entirely plausible — likely even — that Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House. Readers who are following the election through the polls will likely disagree. According to the latest snapshots the race is still Joe Biden’s to lose. The Democratic challenger is enjoying average leads of more than six points in the national polls and four points across the all-important battleground states. Today, Trump leads in just three crunch states: Georgia, Iowa and Texas. If the polls are correct, then the path that Trump took to victory four years ago is simply no longer available.

Biden can also point to other strengths: he remains in a stronger position than Hillary Clinton was four years ago; his ratings have been higher and more durable; he is routinely hitting or surpassing the 50% mark while in the latest polls he leads Trump by an impressive 16-points among women, 20-points among graduates, 20-points among Millennials, 23-points among the slightly younger Zoomers, 39-points among Hispanics and Latinos and 67-points among African Americans.

While there is evidence to suggest that Biden is failing to inspire strong support among the latter two groups, this should be seen alongside the fact that he is polling significantly stronger than recent Democratic challengers among pensioners who, crucially, are more likely to vote. Look at all of this and you might conclude that Trump, rather than winning four more years in power, is actually on course to become the first one-term President since George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton in 1992.

But what if the polls are wrong? What if people are lying? And what if Trump’s voters are more committed to this election than their opponents? The fact that the polls give Biden a strong chance of victory but the bookies give him only a 54% chance suggests that I am not the only one pondering these questions.

Indeed, it is not hard to tell a different story. One reason why I went against the grain four years ago by warning that Trump would pull off a surprise was because of a collective failure to interrogate groupthink, question the polls and ignore his in-built advantages, including strong support for his national populist message among key groups of voters who had been cut adrift by the liberal consensus that had ruled America for decades, irrespective of whether there was a Democrat or a Republican in the White House.

Continued below.
Of course Trump can win - UnHerd
 

thecolorsblend

If God is your Father, who is your Mother?
Supporter
Jul 1, 2013
9,199
8,425
Gotham City, New Jersey
✟308,231.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
President Trump has support in the black community in the vicinity of 20%. All a Republican really needs is 15% or so to ensure victory.

He has something like 30% in the hispanic community. Experts say a Republican really only needs 15 or 20% to win.

Something like 50% of white gay men quietly support him too. Honestly, this group is so small that they probably can't tip an election by themselves. But still, this speaks to the lack of appeal the far left has to even one of their supposed core client groups.

And let's be realistic, we already know that a lot of the "progressives" won't vote for Joe no matter what he does or says.

Between that stuff and #WalkAway, 2020 is shaping up to be electoral death by a thousand cuts for Joe. At this point, I have to wonder who's supposed to vote for him. If the Democrats can't do their trademark voter fraud, this might be a landslide for President Trump.
 
Upvote 0

Bobber

Well-Known Member
Feb 10, 2004
6,584
3,076
✟213,623.00
Faith
Non-Denom
But what if the polls are wrong? What if people are lying? And what if Trump’s voters are more committed to this election than their opponents? The fact that the polls give Biden a strong chance of victory but the bookies give him only a 54% chance suggests that I am not the only one pondering these questions.

Could be wrong but I'm guessing Trump will win. If there ever has been a time where people have been afraid or walk in fear to tell pollsters the truth now would be that time. I suspect that while many don't like Trump really though....soft supporting Dems have become very concerned about what their Party has become. I suspect many Dems secretly do believe their party needs a time in the wilderness to recapture a sense of balance and will give Trump the extra 4 years .

They might wish they didn't have to but they might feel it's really in the nation's best interest. People yap a lot of things in their displeasure maybe of a President they don't like. In that last sober moment however when they cast their vote.....they ask themselves the real question who REALLY would be the best the lead.
 
Upvote 0

Basil the Great

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Mar 9, 2009
4,766
4,085
✟721,243.00
Faith
Christian
Marital Status
Private
Politics
US-Green
President Trump has support in the black community in the vicinity of 20%. All a Republican really needs is 15% or so to ensure victory.

He has something like 30% in the hispanic community. Experts say a Republican really only needs 15 or 20% to win.

Something like 50% of white gay men quietly support him too. Honestly, this group is so small that they probably can't tip an election by themselves. But still, this speaks to the lack of appeal the far left has to even one of their supposed core client groups.

And let's be realistic, we already know that a lot of the "progressives" won't vote for Joe no matter what he does or says.

Between that stuff and #WalkAway, 2020 is shaping up to be electoral death by a thousand cuts for Joe. At this point, I have to wonder who's supposed to vote for him. If the Democrats can't do their trademark voter fraud, this might be a landslide for President Trump.

Even if Trump gains ground with Blacks and Hispanics compared to 2016, polls show him losing considerably with suburban women since 2016, which seems to be a continuation of the trend that swept Madam Speaker and the Dems into power in the House in 2018.
 
Upvote 0

thecolorsblend

If God is your Father, who is your Mother?
Supporter
Jul 1, 2013
9,199
8,425
Gotham City, New Jersey
✟308,231.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Even if Trump gains ground with Blacks and Hispanics compared to 2016, polls show him losing considerably with suburban women since 2016, which seems to be a continuation of the trend that swept Madam Speaker and the Dems into power in the House in 2018.
We live in a time and place right now where wearing a MAGA hat could land you in the hospital. Or the morgue. The riots have reinforced a chilling effect where real social (and perhaps physical) consequences are attached to supporting President Trump. On that basis, I'm not sure how much we should trust the polls when it comes to Biden's support here or there.

Rather, I see the polls as suggestive of where President Trump's actual support in those communities begins and (likely) builds up from.

Assuming a fair election (which could be foolish this year), I see nothing standing between President Trump and a pretty comfortable reelection.
 
Last edited:
Upvote 0

RushMAN

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Jul 13, 2020
750
668
54
West Coast
✟78,856.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
And let's be realistic, we already know that a lot of the "progressives" won't vote for Joe no matter what he does or says.

Now that plugs (Biden) said he beat that socialist Bernie, plugs has guaranteed "progressives" won't vote for him now
 
Upvote 0

thecolorsblend

If God is your Father, who is your Mother?
Supporter
Jul 1, 2013
9,199
8,425
Gotham City, New Jersey
✟308,231.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Now that plugs (Biden) said he beat that socialist Bernie, plugs has guaranteed "progressives" won't vote for him now
There seems to be two predominant schools of thought among the hard left.

The first says that Joe is a product of the corporate establishment. Therefore, it's not worth voting for him, no matter how many SCOTUS Justices he may or may not hypothetically nominate. Because those Justices will be every bit as tainted as Joe himself.

A (relatively) more pragmatic contingent thinks differently. They believe that President Trump is a genuine fascist (laughable as that claim may be to normal people) while Joe is a tired old man. It's a lot easier to bully an old man around than it is a confirmed fascist. So they support Joe in the sense that they want to push him around because they know they really can't push President Trump around.

Unfortunately, I'm not in any position to say for sure which side outnumbers the other. However, I tend to think that the former (corporate establishment) types are in the majority among Progressives. Because I have a real soft spot for stirring up dissension among the other side's ranks, I created a Twitter where I pose as a semi-literate progressive hardliner (a rather laughable caricature that people nevertheless fall for) who refuses to vote for Joe.

I've talked dozens of non-progressive normie liberals out of supporting Joe using caustic, obnoxious, openly pro-communist tweets. That type of thing alienates mainstream liberals who don't want anything to do with progressivism from supporting Joe.

And anything positive for Joe that comes up on Twitter finds me announcing that real progressives want nothing to do with him. I notice that I get minimal pushback from anybody on the left. Some but not very much. Mostly from 40+ year old feminists. Everybody else either agrees with me or seems to get turned off from Joe's campaign.

Nonsense like that isn't much but it adds up.
 
  • Winner
Reactions: RushMAN
Upvote 0

RushMAN

Well-Known Member
Supporter
Jul 13, 2020
750
668
54
West Coast
✟78,856.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Because I have a real soft spot for stirring up dissension among the other side's ranks, I created a Twitter where I pose as a semi-literate progressive hardliner (a rather laughable caricature that people nevertheless fall for) who refuses to vote for Joe.

Love it!
 
Upvote 0

Wolseley

Beaucoup-Diên-Cai-Dāu
Feb 5, 2002
21,073
5,543
63
By the shores of Gitchee-Goomee
✟272,747.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
There seems to be two predominant schools of thought among the hard left.

The first says that Joe is a product of the corporate establishment. Therefore, it's not worth voting for him, no matter how many SCOTUS Justices he may or may not hypothetically nominate. Because those Justices will be every bit as tainted as Joe himself.

A (relatively) more pragmatic contingent thinks differently. They believe that President Trump is a genuine fascist (laughable as that claim may be to normal people) while Joe is a tired old man. It's a lot easier to bully an old man around than it is a confirmed fascist. So they support Joe in the sense that they want to push him around because they know they really can't push President Trump around.

Unfortunately, I'm not in any position to say for sure which side outnumbers the other. However, I tend to think that the former (corporate establishment) types are in the majority among Progressives. Because I have a real soft spot for stirring up dissension among the other side's ranks, I created a Twitter where I pose as a semi-literate progressive hardliner (a rather laughable caricature that people nevertheless fall for) who refuses to vote for Joe.

I've talked dozens of non-progressive normie liberals out of supporting Joe using caustic, obnoxious, openly pro-communist tweets. That type of thing alienates mainstream liberals who don't want anything to do with progressivism from supporting Joe.

And anything positive for Joe that comes up on Twitter finds me announcing that real progressives want nothing to do with him. I notice that I get minimal pushback from anybody on the left. Some but not very much. Mostly from 40+ year old feminists. Everybody else either agrees with me or seems to get turned off from Joe's campaign.

Nonsense like that isn't much but it adds up.

I would respectfully submit that there is a third contingent: those who acknowledge that Stumblin' Joe is a senile old man who needs help finding the bathroom, but it doesn't matter, because he will be removed for one reason or another within a very short time of his election----and then we would have Führerin, Oberbefehlshaberin, und Reichskanzlerin des Grossamerikanischen Reiches, Kamala Harris. Joe will soon evaporate, and all the funding for Trump's Wall will be re-purposed for building concentration camps for conservatives.
 
Upvote 0

Wolseley

Beaucoup-Diên-Cai-Dāu
Feb 5, 2002
21,073
5,543
63
By the shores of Gitchee-Goomee
✟272,747.00
Country
United States
Faith
Catholic
Marital Status
Married
Politics
US-Others
I can't predict who will win (although I strongly suspect it will be Trump---keep your fingers crossed and pray for suppression of voter fraud), but when the dust settles, I hope Trump's victory looks like these majority wins:
1936.png
1972.png
1984.png
 
Upvote 0
This site stays free and accessible to all because of donations from people like you.
Consider making a one-time or monthly donation. We appreciate your support!
- Dan Doughty and Team Christian Forums