Well, perhaps we'll be able to take a sufficient sampling of viewpoints to see how that plays out. Already we have a single vote saying that the tree is Messiah.
24 For if you (Gentiles) were cut out of that which by nature is a wild olive tree, and grafted contrary to nature into a cultivated olive tree, how much more will these natural branches (JEWS) be grafted into
their own olive tree?
The answer is right there in the text. And I like the term cultivate instead of goodly. Which implies the wild tree is not good. It's just not cultivated.
But i still see most here completely missing Shaul's main point. It's not about who the tree is or who is grafted, it's about baseless hatred against the Jews.
18 do not consider yourself to be superior to those other branches. If you do, consider this: You do not support the root, but the root supports you. 19 You will say then, “Branches were broken off so that I could be grafted in.” 20 Granted. But they were broken off because of unbelief, and you stand by faith. Do not be arrogant, but tremble. 21 For if God did not spare the natural branches, he will not spare you either.
Gentiles considered themselves superior to Jews, why? It's the reason Shaul wrote the book to begin with. The Jews were kicked out of Rom in the late 40's leaving only non-Jewish believers in Rome. Imagine a thriving Jewish community with many believing Jews who were forming synagogues where the non-Jews are hearing the good news and becoming part of the community when Rome kicks out all the Jews leaving you there with no community to learn from and even worse, no Torah scroll or the ability to read it. They did the best they could with what they remembered, but this is where replacement theology started. They eventually thought themselves better than the Jews and started believing Jews were punished and rejected by G-d, having given the 'kingdom' to the Gentiles.
22 Consider therefore the kindness and sternness of God: sternness to those who fell, but kindness to you, provided that you continue in his kindness. Otherwise, you also will be cut off. 23 And if they do not persist in unbelief, they will be grafted in, for God is able to graft them in again. 24 After all, if you were cut out of an olive tree that is wild by nature, and contrary to nature were grafted into a cultivated olive tree, how much more readily will these, the natural branches, be grafted into their own olive tree!
In ignorance many believe that the fullness of the Gentiles implies a complete emptying of the Jews in order for that to happen. Jews have rejected G-d and are so rejected by G-d. Gentiles are now accepted by G-d. Jews, because of their unbelief are being judged and the kingdom has been given to those in the nations who 'believe'. Supersessionism is birthed. In Rome, '45-49' CE. And so Shaul is writting this letter to help the discention as Jews were starting to come back to Rome after the expulsion.
Again, imagine coming back to the home you were banished from only to find those who you were teaching now think themselves better than you and are going to teach you now.
25 I do not want you to be ignorant of this mystery, brothers and sisters, so that you may not be conceited: Israel has experienced a hardening in part until the full number of the Gentiles has come in, 26 and in this way all Israel will be saved. As it is written:
“The deliverer will come from Zion;
he will turn godlessness away from Jacob.
27 And this is my covenant with them
when I take away their sins.”
I see the same baseless hatred still existing here today. Jews are to be rejected because some of us rejected Messiah, but you who supposedly claim to have the Ruach know better, and most of all. You who reject us are to be accepted, while we who accept you are to be rejected. (sounds fair HaShem)
28 As far as the gospel is concerned, they are enemies for your sake; but as far as election is concerned, they are loved on account of the patriarchs, 29 for God’s gifts and his call are irrevocable. 30 Just as you who were at one time disobedient to God have now received mercy as a result of their disobedience, 31 so they too have now become disobedient in order that they too may now receive mercy as a result of God’s mercy to you. 32 For God has bound everyone over to disobedience so that he may have mercy on them all.
Who preaches that HaShem takes away the sins of Israel? Who here teaches that though Jews have turned godless and away from our father Jacob, yet THIS covenant made with US takes away OUR sins?
Just as you, were godless and have now received mercy, as a result of the Jews disobedience. SO TOO have the Jews become disobedient 'in order that' we too may receive mercy, because of YOU.
We are tied. You will not understand your own redemption UNTIL you understand the redemption of Yisrael. If you deny her redemption you are denying your own. If you deny the truth that our Moshiach came first and foremost to save and redeem the Jews, you will in turn deny the truth that our Moshiach came also to save and redeem you in the nations.
You can't have sinat chinam against us and still be found right in G-d's sight. Your hatred for us will keep you yourself from being redeemed. Likewise, if you love and support Yisrael as HaShem speaks and does, HaShem will support you as he has promised, us both.
I know if I reject non-Jews as being grafted into our cultivated family I will be cut out of it. Why do many here not see that if you reject Jews as being grafted into our 'own' tree, while acting superior to us because of your pride of being grafted into our tree, you too will be cut off.
This is Shaul's main point of the letter, and this chapter exemplifies it. We are both/all disobedient and require mercy and love for one another.
Baseless hatred is what led to the Jewish exile, why would you want to follow in those footsteps? It will only lead to an eternal exile out of the kingdom of heaven.