Sifting through news for "truth" - covid vs. flu question

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I often wonder if modernity is a more fertile ground for COVID than, say, 100 years ago. While they didn't have the technology back in those days, people didn't have pre-conditions and comorbidities like they do now. For the love of Pete, everybody has diabetes these days! I can't get over it! My wife says every single shift at the hospital, the entire floor is 80% diabetic patients.

If people don't have diabetes, they have heart disease or some oddity. I think with GMO's, fast food diet, an emphasis on medication over natural healing, people being overworked and paradoxically stuck in a sedentary lifestyle, Americans are COVID nightmares waiting to happen.

Lord have mercy. I’m glad they are better now. Thanks for letting me know. I’m sure they were in a higher risk category compared to me.
 
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ArmyMatt

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Yeah, the chip part I don’t necessarily believe, but there are other parts that I do believe. Parts have truth, but the chip part sounds like a strong opinion that could be wrong.

just like a lot of stuff, there is truth mixed with (even unintended) falsehood.
 
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prodromos

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I doubt that there will ever be a need for authorities to insist on chip implants, not as long as our love affair with the gps tracked, always on microphone that we call a "smart phone" continues. They would never have a need.
 
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SingularityOne

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The thing is, if someone exhibits paranoid or incoherent thinking, all their thinking becomes suspect. Masks have nothing to do with chips. So look elsewhere to make your decisions.

In my opinion, exercise a lot of caution, but not to the point of insanity.
The jump from masks to chips is a large jump, I agree. I’m trying to seek the truth as best I can. But, the mainstream media is definitely a place I’m skeptical of at the moment. But, the other extreme isn’t much better either. The middle path is hard to find.
 
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SingularityOne

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I often wonder if modernity is a more fertile ground for COVID than, say, 100 years ago. While they didn't have the technology back in those days, people didn't have pre-conditions and comorbidities like they do now. For the love of Pete, everybody has diabetes these days! I can't get over it! My wife says every single shift at the hospital, the entire floor is 80% diabetic patients.

If people don't have diabetes, they have heart disease or some oddity. I think with GMO's, fast food diet, an emphasis on medication over natural healing, people being overworked and paradoxically stuck in a sedentary lifestyle, Americans are COVID nightmares waiting to happen.
Yeah. There are a lot of variables to the declining health of some of the people in our society. Our diets and our lack of activity seem to be a major two variables in it though.
 
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Phronema

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100,000/20,000,000 = 0.5% which is not "much lower" than previously thought, it's around the lower end of what we thought it might be.

We'll have to agree to disagree. I remember early on that mortality rate quoted was 4%. So with being what I recall it is much lower.

And it's much lower than the mortality rate if the same number have died after only 2.4 million having caught it.
 
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SingularityOne

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just like a lot of stuff, there is truth mixed with (even unintended) falsehood.
What would you say would be the best way to go about knowing the signs of the times without going to either extreme?
 
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SingularityOne

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I doubt that there will ever be a need for authorities to insist on chip implants, not as long as our love affair with the gps tracked, always on microphone that we call a "smart phone" continues. They would never have a need.
Yeah, I’ve thought about that from time to time... the only thing that keeps me from getting rid of this iPhone I have right here is it’s wonderful calendar system.
 
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SingularityOne

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We'll have to agree to disagree. I remember early on that mortality rate quoted was 4%. So with being what I recall it is much lower.

And it's much lower than the mortality rate if the same number have died after only 2.4 million having caught it.
This was what I was looking for. What site/source did you find that on?
 
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Phronema

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This was what I was looking for. What site/source did you find that on?

I mean if you look at the current coronavirus numbers with current confirmed cases they are 3.4M in the US with 137K deaths. That number comes out to almost exactly (slightly higher) than 4%.

As for where I read it months ago I can't recall. I'm fairly certain it was from the CDC though as I prefer to get it from the source.
 
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SingularityOne

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I mean if you even look at the current coronavirus numbers with current confirmed cases they are 3.4M in the US with 137K deaths. That number comes out to almost exactly (slightly higher) than 4%.

As for where I read it months ago I can't recall. I'm fairly certain it was from the CDC though as I prefer to get it from the source.
I guess I need some simple math still training then, lol. Now to try to find the flu mortality rate... then compare! I appreciate your insight and help.
 
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Phronema

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I guess I need some simple math still training then, lol. Now to try to find the flu mortality rate... then compare! I appreciate your insight and help.

It differs year to year because some strains are worse, and some vaccines are more effective than others. Honestly I really would caution you not to compare the two. They are similar in some ways, but they're really not comparable.

Coronavirus is worse because of the respiratory issues that it causes when compared to the regular flu, and those complications usually worsen with age, and risk factors.

Here's a link that may help some :
Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu
 
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~Anastasia~

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I would agree that trying to compare coronavirus with the flu via death rate is not (in the end) a useful way to understand its effect. From the first, it was the measure I tried to use for comparison as well, so I can understand why intuitively it makes sense. But death rate is not the whole story.

There are apparently lasting and significant effects from Covid-19 for many who recover which should not be ignored, so that makes simple death rate too limited an understanding.


As far as masks leading to tracking devices, I find this to be conspiracy-theory nonsense. As others gave said, we already HAVE tracking devices, that we pay for willingly and don’t want to be without.

But any attempt to assign a nefarious intent to masks undermines the willingness of many to wear them at all. I find this to be dangerous and irresponsible, since now many people are protesting wearing them ever in any situation, and that puts people at risk because masks can decrease transmission rates. This is the worst effect among people’s thinking that I often see on social media.

I think I’ve had it too. A student returned from Korea and immediately got very sick in February, and I spent time taking care of her, very much breathing her exhalations, and I got very sick directly after. It lasted for weeks, and at the worst I was just about to go to the ER because I had so much trouble breathing, but got a little better. I just recently noticed I could smell things again (I normally have a very sensitive ability to smell) and that has come out as another effect of coronavirus. However, I also still have some minor problems with breathing that are ongoing, and I have discovered that my resting heart rate has increased by an alarming rate - I’m going to get checked out. (It may just be stress from the general state of things)

I’ve had the flu many times. I don’t usually remember particular episodes and they have no lasting effects. I don’t think I’ll be forgetting this one. I wish I’d had a mask in February, and wish even more my student had worn one. I wear them now every time I go out, even though it’s unlikely imo that I could infect anyone or become infected. But I could be wrong, and so for that reason I consider wearing the mask to be a reasonable precaution.
 
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ArmyMatt

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What would you say would be the best way to go about knowing the signs of the times without going to either extreme?

pray, talk to your spiritual father, think, stay calm.
 
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gzt

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We'll have to agree to disagree. I remember early on that mortality rate quoted was 4%. So with being what I recall it is much lower.

And it's much lower than the mortality rate if the same number have died after only 2.4 million having caught it.
An early estimate of the case fatality rate was roughly that, but that's a point estimate and it's a case fatality rate. In other words, you take the number of identified deaths and divide by the number of identified cases, possibly with some correction for the fact of right-censoring. A responsible scientist, of course, will try to quantify the uncertainty in this estimate and provide a range of plausible values. Now, an infection fatality rate is different from a case fatality rate: it's the proportion of people infected who end up dying. The number of people infected is going to be larger than the number of identified cases, though sometimes we manage to get very good estimates of this. Very early on in the pandemic, we had the case of the Diamond Princess, with like 14 deaths out of 700 cases and a good bit of confidence that all the infections on the ship were detected. Which yields a point estimate of the IFR of 0.5%. Granted, the demographics of that ship are different from the population as a whole. I'm not sure what sources you were hearing that from early on in the pandemic so I can't comment in more detail. But 0.5% is not a surprising figure.
 
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It differs year to year because some strains are worse, and some vaccines are more effective than others. Honestly I really would caution you not to compare the two. They are similar in some ways, but they're really not comparable.

Coronavirus is worse because of the respiratory issues that it causes when compared to the regular flu, and those complications usually worsen with age, and risk factors.

Here's a link that may help some :
Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu
I see. Yeah, I’m sure they are different in many ways. I was more trying to find the similarities and differences between the two. Thanks for the link!
 
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SingularityOne

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I would agree that trying to compare coronavirus with the flu via death rate is not (in the end) a useful way to understand its effect. From the first, it was the measure I tried to use for comparison as well, so I can understand why intuitively it makes sense. But death rate is not the whole story.

There are apparently lasting and significant effects from Covid-19 for many who recover which should not be ignored, so that makes simple death rate too limited an understanding.


As far as masks leading to tracking devices, I find this to be conspiracy-theory nonsense. As others gave said, we already HAVE tracking devices, that we pay for willingly and don’t want to be without.

But any attempt to assign a nefarious intent to masks undermines the willingness of many to wear them at all. I find this to be dangerous and irresponsible, since now many people are protesting wearing them ever in any situation, and that puts people at risk because masks can decrease transmission rates. This is the worst effect among people’s thinking that I often see on social media.

I think I’ve had it too. A student returned from Korea and immediately got very sick in February, and I spent time taking care of her, very much breathing her exhalations, and I got very sick directly after. It lasted for weeks, and at the worst I was just about to go to the ER because I had so much trouble breathing, but got a little better. I just recently noticed I could smell things again (I normally have a very sensitive ability to smell) and that has come out as another effect of coronavirus. However, I also still have some minor problems with breathing that are ongoing, and I have discovered that my resting heart rate has increased by an alarming rate - I’m going to get checked out. (It may just be stress from the general state of things)

I’ve had the flu many times. I don’t usually remember particular episodes and they have no lasting effects. I don’t think I’ll be forgetting this one. I wish I’d had a mask in February, and wish even more my student had worn one. I wear them now every time I go out, even though it’s unlikely imo that I could infect anyone or become infected. But I could be wrong, and so for that reason I consider wearing the mask to be a reasonable precaution.
I’m glad you’re mostly feeling better. I hope the rest of the symptoms (from stress, the virus, or both) clear up soon for you too. Yeah, I’m trying to find the middle path through all of this. It’s just been a lot trying to figure out who to trust through all of this tbh.
 
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gzt

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The Santa Clara study has been thoroughly criticized for its statistical and design-based failings, though their updates to it fixed some of its failings. Ioannidis kind of beclowned himself. Here are a couple chatty, web-log notes on them which explain some of the criticisms from somebody I take a lot of my approach to statistics from (note: I'm a statistician) Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science and an updated note: Updated Santa Clara coronavirus report « Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

EDIT: it seems a couple of days ago, he wrote up a substantial piece on this which will appear in JRSS series C, see here: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/specificity.pdf I have not read it but guarantee it's good.
 
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