Terrible month for The Donald

trunks2k

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The polls also said that Hillary had a 98% chance...we see how that turned out. Polls are meaningless.
no, they didn't. People, using some faulty assumptions, interpreted the polls as giving hillary a 90+% chance of winning, but that wasn't the polls were actually saying.

The polls were saying that Hillary was almost certainly going to win the overall popular vote (she did), but the race was tight in key swing states and while Hillary was the most likely to win, Trump still had a decent chance of pulling off an upset. Five Thirty Eighty was giving Hillary, IIRC, a 70% chance of winning, and noted that 3 in ten chances happen all the time.

Biden is also polling much better right now than Clinton did at any point during the race. Sure, things can change, but the whole argument that "polls are meaningless" is stupid. They aren't meaningless, what matters is how people interpret them. In 2016, Democrats ignored what the polls were saying to their detriment. Similar thing for 2012 for the republicans (though not to the extent of 2016). I get the impression that the Trump campaign is going to go down the "ignore the polls" route too.
 
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only a sojourner

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no, they didn't. People, using some faulty assumptions, interpreted the polls as giving hillary a 90+% chance of winning, but that wasn't the polls were actually saying.


The polls were saying that Hillary was almost certainly going to win the overall popular vote (she did), but the race was tight in key swing states and while Hillary was the most likely to win, Trump still had a decent chance of pulling off an upset. Five Thirty Eighty was giving Hillary, IIRC, a 70% chance of winning, and noted that 3 in ten chances happen all the time.

Biden is also polling much better right now than Clinton did at any point during the race. Sure, things can change, but the whole argument that "polls are meaningless" is stupid. They aren't meaningless, what matters is how people interpret them. In 2016, Democrats ignored what the polls were saying to their detriment. Similar thing for 2012 for the republicans (though not to the extent of 2016). I get the impression that the Trump campaign is going to go down the "ignore the polls" route too.
 
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only a sojourner

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Biden is leading in nearly all of the swing states in some cases by significant margins, which is critical for an electoral college win. Overall he has a significant lead over Trump. The odds are in Biden's favor at this point.
 
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Aryeh Jay

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Biden is leading in nearly all of the swing states in some cases by significant margins, which is critical for an electoral college win. Overall he has a significant lead over Trump. The odds are in Biden's favor at this point.

I hope he doesn’t feel bad when he gets Trumped by a landslide.
 
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jayem

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Albion

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Then why are Republicans starting to panic?
It doesn't look as though they are.

Some unconfirmed reports are that a few strategists are worried, but there is no sign that the Party overall is in that mindset at present. Contributions remain good and many of the polls that are cited by the worriers are known to be unreliable...as they were in 2016.
 
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98cwitr

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cow451

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It doesn't look as though they are.

Some unconfirmed reports are that a few strategists are worried, but there is no sign that the Party overall is in that mindset at present. Contributions remain good and many of the polls that are cited by the worriers are known to be unreliable...as they were in 2016.
Comrades, not to worry. Presidential Trump is strong like bull. He will landslide over Biden, but by even greater margin than last time. He will have biggest inauguration in history... bigger than Obama, bigger than Lincoln, bigger than Jefferson Davis!
 
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jayem

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It doesn't look as though they are.

Some unconfirmed reports are that a few strategists are worried, but there is no sign that the Party overall is in that mindset at present. Contributions remain good and many of the polls that are cited by the worriers are known to be unreliable...as they were in 2016.

If Donald Trump’s re-election was so certain, why would any Republican be worried? Why are some Republican governors now distancing themselves from him? (And not just social distancing.)

Cracks in the Republican Party establishment are getting bigger

Sure, it’s tabloid theater. But why would Kanye West, a DJT supporter, even consider running as an independent candidate? Does he think the only way Donald Trump can win is if he siphons off some likely Biden votes in a few key swing states?

It’s certainly true that circumstances can change. But as of now, your man is in deep political trouble. Denying that is whistling past the graveyard.
 
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Albion

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If Donald Trump’s re-election was so certain, why would any Republican be worried?
I didn't say it was certain.

What I said was that there is no reason to believe the following:
Then why are Republicans starting to panic?
 
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ZNP

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The Palestinians have no intention of signing a peace treaty with Israel - the Israelis haven't rebuilt the Temple since they regained statehood over 70 years ago for a reason!
I plan to revisit this in September when the UN reconvenes. But I just thought an update was in order.

The Palestinians have been told sign the treaty or else we will annex your land. In the past the Palestinians have had 3 ways in which to stop Israel.

1. Go to Iran -- check the news. Iran is being hit harder by the pandemic than any other country. They recently said that the true numbers of people who have gotten the disease could be 10 or 20 times higher.
COVID-19: Iranian Think Tank Says Infection Figures Likely Much Higher; Turkmen Soccer League Resumes

Oil has taken a huge hit with vehicle miles travelled down about 30-40%. It is very easy to enforce an embargo with a surplus of oil. Iran is virtually totally dependent on oil exports for currency with which to do foreign trade.

Also, with trade down 30% or more it makes it much easier for border security from the US and Israel to make sure Iran is not sneaking supplies to Hezbollah or the Palestinians. As a result they are hardly making a peep about this.

2. If you can't go to Iran they go to the UN. How can the UN send peace keepers to Israel with the pandemic raging, especially in Israel. It is very easy in this environment of quarantines and lockdowns for countries to refuse to send anyone.

3. If all else fails they ask Opec for an oil embargo. With an oil glut and oil sales down 30-40% there is no way they are going to do an embargo. That would simply give Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and the US a chance to regain lost market share. Besides every oil exporter is hurting from the pandemic.

So then the Palestinians are given a choice -- "you can sign the peace treaty or else Israel will annex your land"
 
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jgarden

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Somewhat over a month ago I felt the political dynamics somewhat favored Trump's reelection, with the caveat that conditions were volatile and subject to change. I listed several reasons for this prediction. However I am now leaning toward a Biden victory and the possibility that Republican's could lose the Senate.

Trump's missteps have been considerable including problematic tweets, a confused approach to the Corona Virus, his handling of the Russian Bounty allegations. Despite an incendiary start the George Floyd protests have mellowed. If they can continue on this trajectory focusing on racism and heavy handed policing as opposed to the more radical agenda of the Occupy movement they will be able to receive wider approval from the public and media. Biden is also a moderate, candidate, who is not threatening any systemic change who will be able to win support from independents and perhaps even some disenchanted Republicans.

The surge in US cases does not bode favorably for Trump. However if death rates remain low with the infected population being younger-this will help Trump. Presumably there has been a learning curve and nursing home residence will be more protected, older, more vulnerable people more vigilant and medical rechniques have improved. However fatalities lag by at least 2 to 3 weeks and hospitalizations and serious/critical cases have risen.
Terrible month for The Donald

In "crass" terms, the COVID-19 Pandemic provided this President with a potential political "lifeline" - if he could rise to the occasion, provide some semblance national leadership, rally the nation and get beyond his personal demons, Trump might have been able to put 3 years of constant turmoil behind him!

Instead, a flip of the coin would have provided more inspired leadership during the current COVID-19 Pandemic - at least the nation would have had confidence that this Administration was making the right decisions 50% of the time!
 
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ZNP

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In "crass" terms, the COVID-19 Pandemic provided this President with a potential political "lifeline" - if he could rise to the occasion, provide some semblance national leadership, rally the nation and get beyond his personal demons, Trump might have been able to put 3 years of constant turmoil behind him!

Instead, a flip of the coin would have provided more inspired leadership during the current COVID-19 Pandemic - at least the nation would have had confidence that this Administration was making the right decisions 50% of the time!
He has responded to the occasion. He sees an opportunity to foment riots in the street, which will cause fear and mobilize his base. It isn't going to be enough to win an election, but it might be enough to cancel the election.
 
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ZNP

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The Palestinians have no intention of signing a peace treaty with Israel - the Israelis haven't rebuilt the Temple since they regained statehood over 70 years ago for a reason!
UAE is signing a peace treaty, Kuwait has told the Palestinians to sign. Lebanon has been obliterated for the time being, you can forget about Hezbollah or Syria coming to their aid, Iran is being hit very hard by the drop in oil exports due to the pandemic and also from people being sick from the pandemic. China is on the precipice of a food crisis and therefore will need the US to come to their aid with food, so I don't see them nixing the deal, and Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports to keep their country afloat so that gives the US leverage with them. What allies do the Palestinians have left?
 
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