Media focuses on CV spike yet US sees lowest death count

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The low numbers now are due to declining transmissions in the previous two to three weeks.

If fatality numbers remain low, that's excellent. However, with record numbers of transactions, the likelihood is that fatalities will spike.

Even if the overall fatality rate declines, a doubling of the infection rate is certain to lead to more deaths.

Gene2memE said:

Deaths are a lagging indicator. The low numbers now are due to declining transmissions in the previous two to three weeks.

If fatality numbers remain low, that's excellent. However, with record numbers of transactions, the likelihood is that fatalities will spike.

Even if the overall fatality rate declines, a doubling of the infection rate is certain to lead to more deaths.

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Yeah, there's several issues at play that can be a very big concern. First is, as you mentioned, the lagging indicator. We may be better at treating the disease which will means a lower death rate, which is good. However, the big issue is going to be the ability of the health system to handle it all. When ICU beds fill up, as is being seen in some areas, you've got a big issue on your hands that affects people other than just covid patients.

Mountainmanbob said:

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

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If the author of your article applied some clear thinking to the Covid 19 numbers for the US, he (or she) would have realised that the numbers fall into an obvious repeating 5 days high/two days low pattern. The lows are figures recorded for Sundays and Mondays suggesting an issue with slow number reporting from Saturday and Sunday. Pick any Sunday figure and it will inevitably be much lower than the previous day.

Having said that, the death trend has been downward although the downward trend appears to be easing off. The new case trend has definitely been rising. Using the 7 day rolling average option on the Worldometer new cases or deaths graph makes things more obvious.

Unless someone has discovered a way of reducing the death rate it seems inevitable that the death rate must start to rise as new cases increase. As @Gene2memE has observed, there is a lag of 2-3 weeks between increasing new infections and an increase in deaths.

OB

Mountainmanbob said:

US Sees Lowest COVID Death Count Since March, but Media Focuses on Cases Rising

The past few months of the coronavirus pandemic have been a master class in how legacy media manipulate numbers to stoke fear. Case in point: Have you heard that on Sunday, the United States reported its lowest single-day death count in three months?

You probably have not, but it is true, according to a website tracking COVID-19 cases.

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

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Seriously? You do realize that deaths happen AFTER one contracts the disease.

So do you actually think that if we now have more daily new case of COVID 19 that we will, in the not too distant future not have more daily new deaths from COVID 19? How do you think diseases work?

Last I checked we don't have a cure for COVID 19 yet. Do you know something we don't?

trunks2k said:

We may be better at treating the disease which will means a lower death rate, which is good.

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I would question this one. What have learned about COVID since April that would improve our ability to treat a given case? I'm not being snarky here, but seems to me we don't really have much more new abilities vs COVID. Perhaps I missed something in the news coverage.

However, the big issue is going to be the ability of the health system to handle it all. When ICU beds fill up, as is being seen in some areas, you've got a big issue on your hands that affects people other than just covid patients.

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This is definitely the biggie. I am hopeful that our lackluster approach to preparing over the past couple months will keep us from facing down the same thing we were facing in April....but now that our daily new case numbers are HIGHER than our peak in April I worry that our "planning" (as meager as it was) will still be swamped.

Couple that with government leadership being of the opinion that this is all over now, I don't see how this is going to be anything but an unmitigated disaster.

Mountainmanbob said:

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

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And back up to 867 on the 23rd of June.

Mountainmanbob said:

US Sees Lowest COVID Death Count Since March, but Media Focuses on Cases Rising

The past few months of the coronavirus pandemic have been a master class in how legacy media manipulate numbers to stoke fear. Case in point: Have you heard that on Sunday, the United States reported its lowest single-day death count in three months?

You probably have not, but it is true, according to a website tracking COVID-19 cases.

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

Click to expand...

Since the others have addressed the facts and evidence, I will stick to the other question that comes to mind:

Why are you propagating disinformation?

It it for some political narrative? Do you think it will "own the libs" to point this out or something? (You did post this to the US politics section of CF after all.

Do you think that you're so isolated on your mountain you can't possibly get it that you just don't care about the rest of the country?

Are you incapable of digesting the basic facts about the disease? (Like people are sick for a while before they die.)

Do you think this only harms other groups of people and you and your kin are safe from it? (If so, you would be wrong.)

Are you in a COVID death cult? (Seriously, some of you act like you are.)

Are you incapable of comprehending what you read and hear?

Do you consider Fox News to be left-wing? (I ask because so many of the furthest right media site have really gone spelunking in the stupid hole.)

I know you've been engaging people on this forum about COVID-19 topics for several months. You must have surely heard that infections rise before deaths. What is happening in Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, Tucson, etc. is almost exactly what happened in the hospitals of Seattle, New York (metro), Detroit, Chicago, and New Orleans 3 months ago, except that now there is more available PPE and testing, and no one is making any efforts to provide outside surge capacity. Where is the Army Corps of Engineers, the Navy hospital ships, etc. (The hospital ships seem to have been poorly used previously and the only major local in a dire shortage of space at the ocean is Houston and we're in hurricane season so that may not be the best idea.)

Please stop posting these things! They can harm real people.

istodolez said:

I would question this one. What have learned about COVID since April that would improve our ability to treat a given case? I'm not being snarky here, but seems to me we don't really have much more new abilities vs COVID. Perhaps I missed something in the news coverage.

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Oh, I'm not saying it's happened. But I can see the possibility that just simple experience with treatment has made treatment more effective. Like, doctors knowing better what to look out for and take some preventative measures.

istodolez said:

I would question this one. What have learned about COVID since April that would improve our ability to treat a given case? I'm not being snarky here, but seems to me we don't really have much more new abilities vs COVID. Perhaps I missed something in the news coverage.

Click to expand...

I’ve heard people do better on ventilators if they spend part of the day on their stomach. Some drug protocols have eased symptoms (though none have come close to being an actual cure). Just seeing the disease in action and knowing what is likely to happen is allowing medical staff to act sooner. All of this amounts to a bandaid on a bullet wound right now but it is helping a little.

Mountainmanbob said:

US Sees Lowest COVID Death Count Since March, but Media Focuses on Cases Rising

The past few months of the coronavirus pandemic have been a master class in how legacy media manipulate numbers to stoke fear. Case in point: Have you heard that on Sunday, the United States reported its lowest single-day death count in three months?

You probably have not, but it is true, according to a website tracking COVID-19 cases.

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

Click to expand...

Are you suggesting the press should ignore the new case count and rising hospitilizations?

trunks2k said:

Yeah, there's several issues at play that can be a very big concern. First is, as you mentioned, the lagging indicator. We may be better at treating the disease which will means a lower death rate, which is good. However, the big issue is going to be the ability of the health system to handle it all. When ICU beds fill up, as is being seen in some areas, you've got a big issue on your hands that affects people other than just covid patients.

Click to expand...

My husband had an appointment with his pulmonologist yesterday (done by Teleconference as he is high risk). She told us the hospitals are near capacity here in Houston and that the ICU's are 97% full -- that he shouldn't go to the hospital unless he is basically critical, as they likely will not have a bed for him. There is such a shortage of hospital beds in Houston that the Texas Children's Hospital is admitting adult patients.

We will definitely seeing the death toll rising over the next two weeks.

Mountainmanbob said:

US Sees Lowest COVID Death Count Since March, but Media Focuses on Cases Rising

The past few months of the coronavirus pandemic have been a master class in how legacy media manipulate numbers to stoke fear. Case in point: Have you heard that on Sunday, the United States reported its lowest single-day death count in three months?

You probably have not, but it is true, according to a website tracking COVID-19 cases.

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

Click to expand...

This is an article from the Washington Post of 25 June. Note that it acknowledges the downward trend in death figures. The article also quotes experts like Anthony Fauci on the probable consequences of the current increase in cases.

The article is accessible (i.e. it's not behind the WaPo paywall). This is an excerpt (my bolding):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...263b50-b620-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html
OB

Mountainmanbob said:

US Sees Lowest COVID Death Count Since March, but Media Focuses on Cases Rising

The past few months of the coronavirus pandemic have been a master class in how legacy media manipulate numbers to stoke fear. Case in point: Have you heard that on Sunday, the United States reported its lowest single-day death count in three months?

You probably have not, but it is true, according to a website tracking COVID-19 cases.

The “Daily Deaths” chart at Worldometer shows the dramatic decline: The 267 coronavirus deaths recorded Sunday were less than half the total of the previous day (573) and the fewest since March 23, when the site listed a total of 180 deaths.

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

Click to expand...

And how is media wrong


Daily New Case

United States Coronavirus: 2,535,012 Cases and 127,169 Deaths - Worldometer



Daily New Death




same website you have provided .. seems like you want to ignore other date and just focus on the 2 days where number were low ( defiantly good)

Another point to consider about the death rate is the matter of reporting by state officials. I understand, for example, that some states don’t report Covid deaths that occur in the home, some no longer report nursing home deaths as Covid-related, while others won’t report the situation occurring in meat processing facilities...?

Mountainmanbob said:

But if you are watching CNN, you are only hearing more panic and fear, with headlines highlighting worries about the increased spread of the virus.

Click to expand...

As we learn more about COVID-19, we're also learning there is more to it than just dying. It apparently can and has caused lingering health issues even among individuals that are younger/healthier.

I even just read a scientific paper studying hearing damage as a result of COVID-19 infections: Audiological profile of asymptomatic Covid-19 PCR-positive cases

This does not sound like a disease one should be in a hurry to contract.

There are several possible explanations for low deaths.

The most obvious is that deaths lag by almost a month. People who end up dying are often in the ICU for weeks, and it takes time for paperwork listing cause of death.

There have been some improvements in treatment. A few drugs have modest effects, and proning helps some patients. You'd expect that doctors would have learned at least something over a few months.

There's also reason to think that many of the new cases are among younger patients. They are going to have lower death rates.

I'd argue that as long as they need hospitalization (and those numbers are going up) it's something to worry about.

Come back in a few weeks and we'll see what's happening to deaths.