Biden's VP

Radagast said:

And anything that looks like condemning the current riots will probably reduce black voter turnout.

However, anything that looks like supporting the current riots will lose the election.

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I think that takes Amy Klobuchar out of play. Kamala Harris remains a contender.

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Could be.

Albion said:

Pence, long a favorite with Conservative Republicans, was chosen in a typical ticket-balancing move, but that was because Trump did not have solid credentials as either a Conservative or a Republican.

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And Pence is a great cardboard cutout that can be transported easily.

Andrewn said:

Poll: Biden notches 10-point lead over Trump in general election matchup

It looks like Trump's position of the demonstrations has cemented his political future.

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Nothing is "cemented" at this time in the campaign, but that aside, Biden was holding almost this same lead in a number of polls even before the riots.

For instance, Fox News had Biden leading by 8 points eleven days ago. And Quinnipiac had Biden leading Trump by 11 points twelve days ago.

Albion said:

Nothing is "cemented" at this time in the campaign, but that aside, Biden was holding almost this same lead in a number of polls even before the riots.

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A rare time we agree.

For instance, Fox News had Biden leading by 8 points eleven days ago. And Quinnipiac had Biden leading Trump by 11 points twelve days ago.

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Ever heard of "margin of error"?

Andrewn said:

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This is unless Biden chooses a VP who is quite unsuitable for the job. Previous presidential candidates probably lost bec of their VP choices.

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Please list all the candidates that lost because of their VP choices. I quickly looked back in my mind (old and failing sometimes), and I don't recall any. Of course, I only only have studied the campaigns since WWII.

In US politics, the VP choice rarely makes any difference. He or she is usually an attack dog in the campaign. In this election, one might worry about Biden's age, so the choice will be more important than most.

In the end, the election is about Trump: "yes" or "no".
The election is also about turnout.

We often talk about the middle that needs to be convinced. For now, I just don't see this perspective as being applicable. The Democrats need to get their voters out. Trump needs to get his voters out. It is really that simple.

Albion said:

Nothing is "cemented" at this time in the campaign, but that aside, Biden was holding almost this same lead in a number of polls even before the riots.

For instance, Fox News had Biden leading by 8 points eleven days ago. And Quinnipiac had Biden leading Trump by 11 points twelve days ago.

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To state the obvious, winning the popular vote won't do Biden any good at all.

mark46 said:

Please list all the candidates that lost because of their VP choices. I quickly looked back in my mind (old and failing sometimes), and I don't recall any. Of course, I only only have studied the campaigns since WWII.

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Interesting point, mark. A couple of names popped into my mind as I read your challenge, but I just as quickly realized that the Presidential nominee lost those races on his own, even if the VP candidate was thought to be a weak one.

We often talk about the middle that needs to be convinced. For now, I just don't see this perspective as being applicable. The Democrats need to get their voters out. Trump needs to get his voters out. It is really that simple.

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But surely a BAD pick for VP could make that task tougher.

mark46 said:

To state the obvious, winning the popular vote won't do Biden any good at all.

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The suggestion that I replied to was that Biden is increasing his lead and is near to clinching the victory. My point was that other polls are showing that Biden's standing, relative to Trump, has not changed much.

We know that the popular vote doesn't elect, but it's only when the popular vote is close that there is a chance of the Electoral College vote going the other way.

Albion said:

The suggestion that I replied to was that Biden is increasing his lead and is near to clinching the victory. My point was that other polls are showing that Biden's standing, relative to Trump, has not changed much.

We know that the popular vote doesn't elect, but it's only when the popular vote is close that there is a chance of the Electoral College vote going the other way.

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fair enough, but I'm not sure that I would call 3 or 4 million votes close

Albion said:

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But surely a BAD pick for VP could make that task tougher.

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I suppose that a BAD pick make the task more difficult. Warren this time would fit that bill, or Sanders. But, to me, it is interesting that while this is possible, the campaign always seems to depend on the presidential candidates.

mark46 said:

Please list all the candidates that lost because of their VP choices. I quickly looked back in my mind (old and failing sometimes), and I don't recall any. Of course, I only only have studied the campaigns since WWII.

In US politics, the VP choice rarely makes any difference. He or she is usually an attack dog in the campaign. In this election, one might worry about Biden's age, so the choice will be more important than most.

In the end, the election is about Trump: "yes" or "no".
The election is also about turnout.

We often talk about the middle that needs to be convinced. For now, I just don't see this perspective as being applicable. The Democrats need to get their voters out. Trump needs to get his voters out. It is really that simple.

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McCain certainly wasn’t helped by his choice of The Masked Singer.

iluvatar5150 said:

McCain certainly wasn’t helped by his choice of The Masked Singer.

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McCain had no chance. Palin actually energized his campaign, and got lots of those on the right to be interested in the campaign, and to turn out. Palin was a long shot.

I understand that many, especially hard-core Democrats, can't see how anyone would be more inclined to vote Republican because of Palin. I get it, but IMO this is no different than not understanding why someone would vote for Trump.

mark46 said:

McCain had no chance. Palin actually energized his campaign, and got lots of those on the right to be interested in the campaign, and to turn out. Palin was a long shot.

I understand that many, especially hard-core Democrats, can't see how anyone would be more inclined to vote Republican because of Palin. I get it, but IMO this is no different than not understanding why someone would vote for Trump.

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Why do you think we don’t get it? She resonated with the hardcore partisans, but she turned off the sensible people in the middle who wanted somebody who wasn’t a joke.

Andrewn said:

What do you think of the choice of Paul Ryan as a running mate for Mitt Romney in 2012?

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Placated the concerns of Republicans that thought Romney was too liberal fiscally (launched the model for Obamacare when he was governor of Massachusetts) with a guy whose life goal was to get a massive tax cut for the rich passed.

mark46 said:

fair enough, but I'm not sure that I would call 3 or 4 million votes close

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I'd say that it was just enough...and they had to fall in just the right way (PA, MI, WI).

Therefore, if Biden actually has a 10 point lead--and maintains it--there's not going to be any cliffhanger in either the popular vote or the Electoral College vote.

mark46 said:

I suppose that a BAD pick make the task more difficult. Warren this time would fit that bill, or Sanders.

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I agree.

But, to me, it is interesting that while this is possible, the campaign always seems to depend on the presidential candidates.

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It might be a bit different this time. We normally don't have presidential candidates who are this old, and Biden is really looking and acting "his age." IMO, this time it is likely to make some difference.

But it wouldn't require a firebrand for VP, just someone who seems capable, inoffensive, and healthy, with some reassuring degree of political experience. Klobuchar, for instance.

Albion said:

I'd say that it was just enough...and they had to fall in just the right way (PA, MI, WI).

Therefore, if Biden actually has a 10 point lead--and maintains it--there's not going to be any cliffhanger in either the popular vote or the Electoral College vote.

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I think I read an 8 point lead is the point where the Electoral College won’t flip on the popular vote based on how states usually vote.

I do know someone ran the numbers and it was possible to lose the popular vote by like 27-73 and still win the electoral vote if your votes happened in just the right places but the map also didn’t look like anything we’d recognize today.

Andrewn said:

What do you think of the choice of Paul Ryan as a running mate for Mitt Romney in 2012?

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Ryan seemed like a good choice at the time, but he disappointed. Something like Jack Kemp had done earlier.