As I've discovered it's hard not to make a fool of one's self when projecting the future of Covid-19 morbidity and mortality.
1. One theory is that it is so infectious that it is already too widespread to be stopped and evidently a lot less harmful as the number of people who have had it is large so proportionately the risk of harm is small.
2. The opposite theory is that it is not that infectious, has yet to peak, and is really very harmful.
It is easy to be convinced by either theory, only experience will tell.
A few weeks ago the lack of prison outbreaks and the peak reached by the disease in Sweden indicated theory 1 was correct. Now there have been prison outbreaks and the daily confirmed cases of Corona virus in Sweden is higher than it has ever been.
So it is beginning to look more like 2. is true.
In addition though the 'flatten the curve' strategy is a good one to follow because if you do get the disease, even if the curve is going down, you still want available ventilators and staff when you get it, so you still want to delay it as much as possible. And as the disease often causes permanent damage you would ideally not want to get it until a good cure arrives.
