Antibody test study indicates official figures might be reporting only 2 percent of cases.

Halbhh said:

Is that the 'projection' you were referring to?

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The "original projected death rate" I was referring to was 3.4%.

paul1149 said:

The "original projected death rate" I was referring to was 3.4%.

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The early projected death rates I recall were more in the range of 0.5% to 1.0%.

Let's assume it's really true, and death rates are on the same order as the flu. How does that impact public policy? I think it impacts it mostly after the initial wave.

At least in the early states, closures are mostly because hospitals are becoming overloaded. This requires no models and no projections. It's an observed fact. It could happen even if the death rate is .1%. In 2019, about 30M people got the flu in the US. Why not the whole population? I'd assume it's because lots of people get flu shots and there's lots of partial immunity out there from past seasons.

For Covid-19, there's no reason to think that anyone is immune. In populations where it has gotten established, growth rates have been exponential until stopped by social distancing. Even if the death rate was .1%, it is easy to see that it would produce the results we've seen, simply because no one is immune, and it seems to spread twice as fast as flu (R0 of 2.5 instead of 1.3).

The main difference if the Stanford estimate is right would be that a huge number of people have it, and we stand some chance of reaching herd immunity. But not immediately. If the models are right, and 60,000 people die in this wave, even with .1% death rate, that's 60 M having gotten it. Only 20% of the population. So there will likely be several more waves. Unless we're willing to just let it go and saturate hospitals. In that case "only" 300K die (realistically a bit less -- it's unlikely that literally 100% of the population would get it), but we lose other people as well when the medical system collapses.

The alternative is we get to the point where we can do good enough contract tracing to stop growth. But if that happens, a huge number of asymptomatic cases may actually be bad news, because it's going to make contact tracing a lot harder.

But it's good news for NJ. With 4000 deaths, and likely 7000 by the end of the first wave, we'll have herd immunity. We can now sit back and watch the red states struggle for the next year.

But I think that's a fantasy.

hedrick said:

The alternative is we get to the point where we can do good enough contract tracing to stop growth.

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If communicability is high, the rate of growth might be slowed, but the growth itself cannot be stopped, especially with asymptomatic transmission. IOW, virtually everyone gets the disease, sooner or later. And we can look forward to new mutations and new strains, due to the reproduction rate of viruses. We can modulate the growth rate so our facilities are not overwhelmed, but we need a more fundamental defense plan.

To my mind, that plan is to strengthen our immune systems. We have had our fill of junk food for too long. The American diet has been in the hands of Big Agrabiz and the television marketers for too long. We need to return to a sound diet and we need to rediscover the power of herbs, supplements, and sound nutrition to build, maintain, and defend health.

With a strong immune system many of us will be able to contract the disease and slough it off, and then have the antibodies to prevent reinfection. And that will lead to some degree of herd immunity, which will help everyone.

At 2Chr 36.21 the writer traces the desolation of Israel, which had been taken captive to Babylon, back to its abuse of the land.


Until we restore the soil to a healthy condition, with weakened immune systems we are going to be at the mercy of new diseases arising.

Goonie said:

Antibody study suggests coronavirus is far more widespread than previously thought

Interesting, if correct the mortality rate might be just .12 to .2 percent. Though given the fact that it is just one study, not yet peer reviewed, it's early days.

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Just 458,000 to 658,000 dead in the US? The problem with herd immunity is the number of herd members that have to die first.

paul1149 said:

If communicability is high, the rate of growth might be slowed, but the growth itself cannot be stopped, especially with asymptomatic transmission. IOW, virtually everyone gets the disease, sooner or later. And we can look forward to new mutations and new strains, due to the reproduction rate of viruses. We can modulate the growth rate so our facilities are not overwhelmed, but we need a more fundamental defense plan.

To my mind, that plan is to strengthen our immune systems. We have had our fill of junk food for too long. The American diet has been in the hands of Big Agrabiz and the television marketers for too long. We need to return to a sound diet and we need to rediscover the power of herbs, supplements, and sound nutrition to build, maintain, and defend health.

With a strong immune system many of us will be able to contract the disease and slough it off, and then have the antibodies to prevent reinfection. And that will lead to some degree of herd immunity, which will help everyone.

At 2Chr 36.21 the writer traces the desolation of Israel, which had been taken captive to Babylon, back to its abuse of the land.

Those who had escaped from the sword he carried away to Babylon; and they were servants to him and to his sons until the rule of the kingdom of Persia,
to fulfill the word of the LORD by the mouth of Jeremiah, until the land had enjoyed its sabbaths. All the days of its desolation it kept sabbath until seventy years were complete. -2Chr 36:20-21​

Until we restore the soil to a healthy condition, with weakened immune systems we are going to be at the mercy of new diseases arising.

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From what I have been reading, a vaccine is a long ways off and we can't count on it sparing significant number of American lives before the pandemic ends. Immune therapies and repurposing of existing drugs have alot more promise.

Owing to the frequency of cytokine storms among the severely ill with COVID-19 (and the relative lack of severe illnesses in youth), the issue may not be just having a strong immune system, but a well-regulated one. Drugs like hydroxychloroquine work in diseases like lupus and rheumatoid arthritis precisely because they are capable of modulating immune responses in people with disregulated immune systems, where the body is attacking itself.