ZNP
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- Feb 20, 2020
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The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.[13] In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century.[14] It took 200 years for Europe's population to recover to its previous level,[15] and some regions (such as Florence) did not recover until the 19th century.[16][17][18] Outbreaks of the plague recurred until the early 20th century.
I think this is an excellent example of what is possible. Yes, it killed a fourth of the people in Europe. No doubt it killed people in other parts of the world, but when it says the plague has power over a fourth of the earth that can be interpreted two ways -- plagues generally hit in certain regions. A worldwide plague is something quite special, perhaps only possible after the industrial revolution. So if "one fourth of the earth" represents a region of earth within that region you get death due to famine, sword, and plague.
I don't think anyone has really considered the impact of this pandemic.
1. Insurance companies are hit with a double whammy, at the same time payouts are skyrocketing their investments are plummeting.
2. It is estimated that there is a loss of $350 billion in trade every quarter that this pandemic is in place. That also adds to bankruptcies which can have a domino effect.
3. Airlines and hotels are being especially hard hit.
4. Unemployment is skyrocketing, which in turn is dealt with by government programs which cause inflation. This of course has happened before, but worldwide, all at once? I think this has to be unprecedented in the speed and scope of this collapse.
5. Stock market collapse is staggering, especially for those who have retired. It is not simply the stocks but also bond yields will likely fall dramatically.
6. The Russel 2000 is an index of small businesses. Prior to this event many of them were not profitable, even operating at a loss. This could easily be a critical domino where we get a rash of bankruptcies, which would acerbate unemployment, inflation, and in turn push other businesses to the brink of bankruptcy.
Now imagine you are still trying to recover from hurricane Harvey, or the fires in Australia or California. Puerto Rico and the Bahamas are trying to recover from terrible storms, how is that going to work without any tourism? If this were a prize fight how many punches can you take before you go down?
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