The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.

Al Touthentop

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This is not MERS. MERS infected 186 people in Korea and 2500 people worldwide. COVID-19 is up to more than 700,000 confirmed cases worldwide now, with no signs of slowing down. It's clear that COVID-19 is an entirely different disease - the fact that they're both coronaviruses notwithstanding.

It's not entirely different. It's a corona virus, just like MERS. And there is no evidence that the disease spreads significantly differently. In both cases the claim that it is spread by asymptomatic people has not been proven, in both cases you will find professionals saying that it is spread by symptomatic people to other people through droplets, only. That's from their literature. I realize that the media is saying wildly different things but the media is notorious for over stating their case. And sometimes politically motivated professionals will do this also.
 
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Al Touthentop

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He's saying there is a chance, but frankly, current trends to not support that notion.

We do not AT ALL estimate or report the number of cases which did not require hospitalization or come to some bureaucrat's notice and so the "current trends" leave out those entirely.

We have Stanford professors pointing this out as well as Fauci himself. Every time a new "confirmed" case is reported, the likelihood that ten more have gone unreported is very high.

Thus the trend only reflects confirmed cases and it is inappropriate to draw conclusions about mortality rates from that.

People seem only to want to listen to the side of the story that claims this is a crisis of biblical proportions. When the very people who've preached doom change their story, that's unremarkable or false.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Here's a great blog post on Fauci's two-faced proclamations regarding Covid-19

On March 11 Dr. Anthony Fauci famously told a congressional hearing that the COVID-19 virus was “ten times worse” than the seasonal flu. Then fifteen days later, on March 26, he co-authored an article that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he wrote that the COVID-19 was “no worse” than a “very bad flu” but nothing like SARS or MERSA.

Having been involved in the academic publishing business for the past 41 years, I can say with some authority that the article published in the New England Journal of Medicine was almost certainly submitted to the journal months before March 11, probably many months. This fact suggests that Fauci knew on March 11 that he was misleading Congress — and the world — about the severity of the coronavirus.

The Two Faces of Anthony Fauci - LRC Blog LewRockwell.com
 
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RocksInMyHead

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I don't think there's a difference substantially.
Are you an epidemiologist? A virologist? If the answer to either of those questions is "No," then your personal thoughts on the similarity between MERS and COVID are irrelevant. Full stop.
On March 11 Dr. Anthony Fauci famously told a congressional hearing that the COVID-19 virus was “ten times worse” than the seasonal flu. Then fifteen days later, on March 26, he co-authored an article that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he wrote that the COVID-19 was “no worse” than a “very bad flu” but nothing like SARS or MERSA.
The seasonal flu has a 0.01% mortality rate. A "very bad flu" has a mortality rate of 0.1%. Quick math problem: what's 0.01% x 10?
 
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Al Touthentop

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Are you an epidemiologist? A virologist? If the answer to either of those questions is "No," then your personal thoughts on the similarity between MERS and COVID are irrelevant. Full stop.

I am merely commenting on THEIR literature which says that. I'm not spouting my opinion, I'm spouting theirs. If their opinions are wrong, what's your background that you can say they're wrong?

The seasonal flu has a 0.01% mortality rate. A "very bad flu" has a mortality rate of 0.1%. Quick math problem: what's 0.01% x 10?

That would be 1%, quite a bit lower than covid-19's reported mortality rate. But we're not measuring the correct numbers and so we're wild in the mortality reporting which is anywhere from .96% to 6% depending on which country you're looking at. And this is exactly why Fauci estimated that the real mortality rate was probably about .1%. Because the correct way to figure mortality of any given virus is to include ALL the cases, not just the confirmed ones.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Here's a great blog post

No, it isn't.

Then fifteen days later, on March 26, he co-authored an article that was published in the New England Journal of Medicine in which he wrote that the COVID-19 was “no worse” than a “very bad flu” but nothing like SARS or MERSA.

Quote marks are supposed to mean direct exact quotes, especially in a case like this where a blogger is leveling charges of 'two-facedness'. Neither the phrase "no worse" nor "very bad flu" appear in the article. The blog post is a lie.

The closest thing in the article is:
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

[my emphasis] In other words, two published estimates are 2% and 1.4%, but Fauci et al. allow that there is a possibility it may be considerably less, on the not unreasonable assumption that there are asymptomatic cases flying under the radar.
 
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RocksInMyHead

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I am merely commenting on THEIR literature which says that. I'm not spouting my opinion, I'm spouting theirs. If their opinions are wrong, what's your background that you can say they're wrong?
Based on the articles that you've cited so far in this discussion, I don't draw the same conclusions. I'm not a medical professional either, but I do have a scientific background and am well-versed in deciphering scientific language as used in journal articles.

The main issue I have with what you're saying is that you're making sweeping generalizations about COVID-19 based on MERS and other coronaviruses, which is not something that I see in the literature. It may seem reasonable to you as a layperson, but unless you see those same connections being drawn in the scientific literature, they likely do not exist.

That would be 1%
Bzzt. Wrong. 0.01% x 10 is 0.1%. In other words, there is no inconsistency in Fausti's numbers. A very bad flu season is about 10 times worse than a normal seasonal flu - just as COVID-19 might end up being 10x worse.

And yes, that is much lower than the current reported mortality rate. I'm well aware that it's highly likely that there are many unreported cases out there.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Bzzt. Wrong. 0.01% x 10 is 0.1%. In other words, there is no inconsistency in Fausti's numbers. A very bad flu season is about 10 times worse than a normal seasonal flu - just as COVID-19 might end up being 10x worse.

A severe flue is estimated at .1%, not .01%.
And yes, that is much lower than the current reported mortality rate. I'm well aware that it's highly likely that there are many unreported cases out there.

So you're just arguing for the sake of arguing. When Fauci testified before congress, he didn't give his estimated numbers and we can't expect Congress to understand what he means by 10x worse, that it isn't as dire as it sounds, though it would mean that something like 200-600k people would die. The statement was intended to be sensational. What he's saying to the medical community who study the numbers and know what he's saying is not the same as what he said to Congress and he didn't try and clarify. And of course that testimony went to the public the large majority of which thought the sky was falling.
 
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essentialsaltes

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A severe flue is estimated at .1%, not .01%.

Yes, but what Fauci said was (according to your source): On March 11 Dr. Anthony Fauci famously told a congressional hearing that the COVID-19 virus was “ten times worse” than the seasonal flu.

The seasonal flu is estimated at 0.01%. 10 times worse than that is 0.1%, which is the same as a 'very bad flu'.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Yes, but what Fauci said was (according to your source): On March 11 Dr. Anthony Fauci famously told a congressional hearing that the COVID-19 virus was “ten times worse” than the seasonal flu.

The seasonal flu is estimated at 0.01%. 10 times worse than that is 0.1%, which is the same as a 'very bad flu'.


Why are you quoting for Fauci when that's not what he said?

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“

I already quoted this.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Why are you quoting for Fauci when that's not what he said?

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“
 
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mark46

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Can't be as low as .1% honestly. It has already mowed down 2,200 people in ~2 months and that was with a slow start. roughly a quarter of the total dead at any given time in the last 2 weeks, died that very day. It is killing globally at twice the rate of the flu already, and that's with the flu having a several thousand year head start. It will pass the end end estimate for worldwide flu deaths by the end of september at this rate, and the rate is likely to go up considerably.

The open question is the number of individual infected in the states where there are death, or over say 10 deaths.
 
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RocksInMyHead

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Why are you quoting for Fauci when that's not what he said?

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“

I already quoted this.
He said two things, which the blog post you quoted (and said was "great") called contradictory. They were not.

1. COVID-19 might be 10 times worse than the seasonal flu (which has a mortality rate of 0.01%)

2. COVID-19 might ultimately be more akin to a severe influenza season (which is generally declared when the mortality rate approaches 0.1%)

A severe flu season is around 10x worse than normal seasonal influenza - exactly what Dr. Fausti said COVID-19 might end up as.
So you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.
At this point, I'm merely trying to correct the erroneous information that you continue to repeat. It seems like every time I correct you, you either double down on the false information or pivot to something entirely new - and also false.

I'm not trying to "argue" anything.
 
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SimplyMe

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There is a new example today where it is believed an asymptomatic person spread the Corona Virus. I'm not sure how many of read of the Skagit Valley Choir that practiced in the Mt. Vernon (WA) Presbyterian church. It appears they even tried to do a limited form of "Social Distancing", making sure people didn't have flu symptoms, having them use Purell on entering, and trying to keep distance between the choir members during the practice -- as well as not touching each other (no hugs or handshakes).

Since the Choir practiced on March 10, of the 60 people in attendance, 45 have tested positive or had Coronavirus symptoms (but not tested), three have been hospitalized, two are dead; researchers believe this is where they (possibly all but one) contracted the virus, and that they got it from aerial spread from an asymptomatic person (since no one was coughing, sneezing, etc).
 
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SimplyMe

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Are you an epidemiologist? A virologist? If the answer to either of those questions is "No," then your personal thoughts on the similarity between MERS and COVID are irrelevant. Full stop.

The seasonal flu has a 0.01% mortality rate. A "very bad flu" has a mortality rate of 0.1%. Quick math problem: what's 0.01% x 10?

I pointed out to him that both Humans and large apes are considered Primates, and that we (as humans) share roughly 99% of our DNA to chimpanzees. Yet that leaves a vast difference in the traits of apes and Humans, just as there can be vast differences in coronaviruses -- including their transmission factors (when it is contagious, how it is spread, etc).
 
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Hank77

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Except thats not what I've been hearing, you can have caught covid19 and show no symptoms from it, but you still ahve the viral particles in you if you sneeze there is a chance it could spread
Rand Paul came in contact with someone who had the virus so he was tested. He tested positive and is in quarantine even though he said he is asymptomatic.
 
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Hank77

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Consider where the cases are huge problems. You will find large, large gatherings of people. The Mardi Gras in NO. Subways in many cities. Huge numbers on the beaches of FL.
In Colorado it was at one of the ski resorts, Vail I think. They pinned it down to the first case being a guy who came from another state to ski. In NH the first case was a guy who had just returned from Italy.

I suspect that when we closed the border to people from Europe and all the Americans flooded home into jam-packed airports and then went home...
 
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SimplyMe

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In Colorado it was at one of the ski resorts, Vail I think. They pinned it down to the first case being a guy who came from another state to ski. In NH the first case was a guy who had just returned from Italy.

I suspect that when we closed the border to people from Europe and all the Americans flooded home into jam-packed airports and then went home...

While I've seen lots of Trump fans complaining about how the "media" and "Democrats" responded to his travel ban; what I've seen is that most complained that it only applied to "foreigners." Granted, you do want US citizens to be able to come home -- but the complaint was that a travel ban does no good if you don't also isolate or do a form of quarantine on any Americans coming back from those areas -- or don't do checks/surveys of foreigners entering the country to see if they've been in the "banned" area. And that doesn't even include those that might have come into contact with a person who had traveled to that area, and was a carrier of the virus.
 
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Al Touthentop

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He said two things, which the blog post you quoted (and said was "great") called contradictory. They were not.

1. COVID-19 might be 10 times worse than the seasonal flu (which has a mortality rate of 0.01%)

I'm not trying to "argue" anything.

What you're trying to do is rehabilitate his fear mongering in front of Congress and ultimately the public when in fact he, before he even talked to Congress, published an article that argued against cv-19 being any more dangerous than a severe flu season in the US, something we do not lock down the entire country for.

He misled the public even if he might have been technically within the bounds of truth. The public did not get the impression that he was arguing that the worst covid-19 would do is kill as many as the flu. Anyone who suggested the same as what he wrote in that paper has been shouted down by every media pundit BECAUSE of his speech to Congress.

Funny though that you're now agreeing with his analysis. Shouldn't you be trying to shout him down?
 
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Hank77

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but the complaint was that a travel ban does no good if you don't also isolate or do a form of quarantine on any Americans coming back from those areas -- or don't do checks/surveys of foreigners entering the country to see if they've been in the "banned" area. And that doesn't even include those that might have come into contact with a person who had traveled to that area, and was a carrier of the virus.
Exactly.
 
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