The trouble with envisioning Covid-19 growth.

keith99

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The reason his new projections are lower is because the original ones were based on nothing being done, and the new ones are based on the lockdown that has been implemented. 'Confusion': Imperial College scientist says 500K coronavirus death projection in UK remains unchanged

"Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged," he continued."

It is interesting that some people are ignoring the part of the original statement IF NOTHING IS DONE and trying to make it out that the original statement was wrong. When in fact drastic measures were taken and it avoided a far worse disaster.
 
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hedrick

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It is interesting that some people are ignoring the part of the original statement IF NOTHING IS DONE and trying to make it out that the original statement was wrong. When in fact drastic measures were taken and it avoided a far worse disaster.
The reason is that they were looking at an article in RT, which was misleading. Where possible I try to track information back to either its source or an established news source. In this case it wasn't hard to find the correction.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Russia Times. Outstanding. Another American spreading Russian propaganda.

It is ironic that the former Pravda produces more truth than American media.
 
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Al Touthentop

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It is when you are misunderstanding what it is: an NIH library.



No, that's disinformation from Russia Today.

But in fact, Ferguson had not revised his projections in his testimony, which he made clear in interviews and Twitter. His earlier study had made clear the estimate of 500,000 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the United States projected what could happen if both took absolutely no action against the coronavirus. The new estimate of 20,000 deaths in Britain was a projected result now that Britain had implemented strict restrictions, which this week came to include a full lockdown.


It's not disinformation. It's his spin. And there's no evidence that martial law has any positive effect. South Korea flattened their curve without hysterical responses. They learned their lesson from 2015. Since coronaviruses do not propagate except through symptomatic persons, they used a different approach this time.

The WHO recommended against quarantining asymptomatic persons based on their knowledge of how coronaviruses spread and the economic damage which occurred during the 2015 MERS epidemic in South Korea at that time, which was not necessary.

This right here is exactly why I am against what is being done right now, a totally draconian and inappropriate action which will do nothing to reduce cases and likely will cause more cases.

Rhode Island Police to Hunt Down New Yorkers Seeking Refuge
 
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Al Touthentop

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It’s ironic that you’re pretending to be patriotic while helping spread Russian propaganda.

Ad hominem. Last resort of someone who has no real argument.
 
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Kentonio

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Ad hominem. Last resort of someone who has no real argument.

So far in this thread you’ve made a series of completely untrue statements. You’ve then been told by various people why those statements are untrue and been supplied with links and information proving this. Instead of listening, reading and learning, you’ve doubled down and repeated those falsehoods while insisting everyone else is wrong.

I don’t think you’re in any position right now to be lecturing anyone on ‘real arguments’.
 
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Al Touthentop

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So far in this thread you’ve made a series of completely untrue statements. You’ve then been told by various people why those statements are untrue and been supplied with links and information proving this. Instead of listening, reading and learning, you’ve doubled down and repeated those falsehoods while insisting everyone else is wrong.

I don’t think you’re in any position right now to be lecturing anyone on ‘real arguments’.

Oh, there's people who are reading who know that this is untrue. The two main objections are that asymptomatic people are contagious, which the CDC and WHO affirm are not the accepted facts, and lockdowns are the only way to keep CV from spreading.

And then there's the canard that the mortality rate of CV is much higher than other diseases which is why these lockdowns are necessary. That's based on inappropriate calculations which assume that the only cases of CV that exist are those that are confirmed through testing. We know this isn't the case at all as the Stanford article I posted a link to confirms and common sense also. (not Pravda or RT).

I haven't only provided links to "propaganda" sites. Most of the things I've linked are from so-called "acceptable" sources. It is totally unremarkable that statists hate alternative media sources. The old media itself hates alternative sources.
 
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Kentonio

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Oh, there's people who are reading who know that this is untrue. The two main objections are that asymptomatic people are contagious, which the CDC and WHO affirm are not the accepted facts, and lockdowns are the only way to keep CV from spreading.

And then there's the canard that the mortality rate of CV is much higher than other diseases which is why these lockdowns are necessary. That's based on inappropriate calculations which assume that the only cases of CV that exist are those that are confirmed through testing. We know this isn't the case at all as the Stanford article I posted a link to confirms and common sense also. (not Pravda or RT).

I haven't only provided links to "propaganda" sites. Most of the things I've linked are from so-called "acceptable" sources. It is totally unremarkable that statists hate alternative media sources. The old media itself hates alternative sources.

How quickly we forget your repeated claims that Monkeypox and Smallpox are the same disease, because you didn’t know what ‘clinically indistinguishable’ actually meant..

As for asymptomatic cases, no the CDC didn’t say it doesn’t happen, they said:
  • Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this occurring with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
I have no idea why you think it’s ok to turn ‘not thought to be the main way the virus spreads’ into ‘this isn’t real’. It’s wildly irresponsible for one thing.

As for the mortality rate, you’re just bordering on bizarre. Countries all over the world are bringing in lockdowns that they know will cripple their economies based on the very best expert scientific advise in the world. But no, Al Toutenhop knows better than them..
 
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Al Touthentop

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How quickly we forget your repeated claims that Monkeypox and Smallpox are the same disease, because you didn’t know what ‘clinically indistinguishable’ actually meant..

I know what it means. And the WHO says you can't even tell the difference under an electron microscope. The mistake was to claim that 'clinically indistinguishable' only applies to the outward signs of the disease. That was false and I quoted the same 'acceptable' source showing that to be the case.

I have no idea why you think it’s ok to turn ‘not thought to be the main way the virus spreads’ into ‘this isn’t real’. It’s wildly irresponsible for one thing.

I have no idea why you would read their suppressing of rumor, as anything other than their confirmation that the facts, asymptomatic people do not spread the virus, remains the accepted norm.

As for the mortality rate, you’re just bordering on bizarre. Countries all over the world are bringing in lockdowns that they know will cripple their economies based on the very best expert scientific advise in the world. But no, Al Toutenhop knows better than them..

They're not listening to the WHO's advice on this. If you accept their authority, why wouldn't you also accept their recommendations against lock downs?
 
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RocksInMyHead

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They're not listening to the WHO's advice on this. If you accept their authority, why wouldn't you also accept their recommendations against lock downs?
Please provide a source for your claim that the WHO recommends against lockdowns. I'm unable to find anything saying that - in fact, I can find a WHO official saying in an interview today that lockdowns will be necessary for at least two weeks to stop the spread: Can I go for a run? When will this end? How should testing work? Q&A with a WHO expert on coronavirus

The closest thing I can find to your claim is a statement from the WHO in January that the initial lockdown in Wuhan was not at their recommendation: Wuhan lockdown 'unprecedented', shows commitment to contain virus: WHO representative in China

However, the language used makes it clear that they weren't recommending against the lockdown.

I can find other language from the WHO recommending against travel bans, but those aren't the same as the local quarantine/lockdown procedures that we're seeing.
 
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Kentonio

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I know what it means. And the WHO says you can't even tell the difference under an electron microscope. The mistake was to claim that 'clinically indistinguishable' only applies to the outward signs of the disease. That was false and I quoted the same 'acceptable' source showing that to be the case.

“Monkeypox virus (MPV) causes a human disease which resembles smallpox but with a lower person-to-person transmission rate. To determine the genetic relationship between the orthopoxviruses causing these two diseases, we sequenced the 197-kb genome of MPV isolated from a patient during a large human monkeypox outbreak in Zaire in 1996. The nucleotide sequence within the central region of the MPV genome, which encodes essential enzymes and structural proteins, was 96.3% identical with that of variola (smallpox) virus (VAR). In contrast, there were considerable differences between MPV and VAR in the regions encoding virulence and host-range factors near the ends of the genome. Our data indicate that MPV is not the direct ancestor of VAR and is unlikely to naturally acquire all properties of VAR.”
Human Monkeypox and Smallpox Viruses: Genomic Comparison - PubMed

Now please stop making things up, or sharing nonsense you’ve read on conspiracy websites.

I have no idea why you would read their suppressing of rumor, as anything other than their confirmation that the facts, asymptomatic people do not spread the virus, remains the accepted norm.

Stop making things up please. If they knew it couldn’t be spread asymptomatically then they’d say so.

They're not listening to the WHO's advice on this. If you accept their authority, why wouldn't you also accept their recommendations against lock downs?

Quote the WHO recommendations against lock downs please. Including a link.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Stop making things up please. If they knew it couldn’t be spread asymptomatically then they’d say so.

They have said that. They have written that some people have asserted it to be so but that they do not believe it.

Oh...by the way, here's Fauci writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, and asserting that the mortality rate of Covid-19 is probably barely above that of the flu, if that.

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“

Less than one 1%. Far less.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#
 
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Vylo

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They have said that. They have written that some people have asserted it to be so but that they do not believe it.

Oh...by the way, here's Fauci writing in the New England Journal of Medicine, and asserting that the mortality rate of Covid-19 is probably barely above that of the flu, if that.

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2“

Less than one 1%. Far less.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387#
He's saying there is a chance, but frankly, current trends to not support that notion. This disease has infected a fraction of the swine flu in 2009, but already has over 60% more total confirmed deaths and has been around a quarter of the time. As this disease peaks, we are going to see a much higher death count. The numbers are already soaring upwards.
 
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Al Touthentop

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Quote the WHO recommendations against lock downs please. Including a link.

I've already posted them. But I'll post them again:

Costly Lessons From the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Outbreak in Korea

According to the WHO, there is no evidence that MERS can be transmitted before symptom development or in early symptomatic stages. Therefore the WHO does not recommend quarantine nor isolation of asymptomatic contacts during this period [10].

Kaldor–Hicks efficiency - Wikipedia

MERS is a coronavirus.
 
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Al Touthentop

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He's saying there is a chance, but frankly, current trends to not support that notion. This disease has infected a fraction of the swine flu in 2009, but already has over 60% more total confirmed deaths and has been around a quarter of the time. As this disease peaks, we are going to see a much higher death count. The numbers are already soaring upwards.

And still doesn't approach flu yet. Not saying it positively won't, but it is unlikely. In Germany where they are testing and confirming more cases, the mortality rate is .75%. That is not an indication that they have some magic treatment that is better than other countries, but that they are identifying more cases overall, including the mild ones. In the US we have examples of people who came in with mild cases and were refused testing, the excuse being that only serious cases were being tested. This has the unfortunate result of making the mortality rate worse than it is.
 
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Kentonio

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I've already posted them. But I'll post them again:

Costly Lessons From the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Outbreak in Korea

According to the WHO, there is no evidence that MERS can be transmitted before symptom development or in early symptomatic stages. Therefore the WHO does not recommend quarantine nor isolation of asymptomatic contacts during this period [10].

Kaldor–Hicks efficiency - Wikipedia

MERS is a coronavirus.

So basically you were talking absolute nonsense, and just talking about their advice for a completely different coronavirus? Remember Dr. Fauci? This is what he said about MERS:

Dr. Fauci said:
does not spread in a sustained person to person way at all.
This seems to be backed up solidly by the evidence, given that there’s only been a few thousand MERS cases. Now what do you think might be the difference in terms of transmission between that and the Covid-19 virus that is currently exploding in numbers around the world?
 
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RocksInMyHead

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I've already posted them. But I'll post them again:

Costly Lessons From the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Outbreak in Korea

According to the WHO, there is no evidence that MERS can be transmitted before symptom development or in early symptomatic stages. Therefore the WHO does not recommend quarantine nor isolation of asymptomatic contacts during this period [10].

Kaldor–Hicks efficiency - Wikipedia

MERS is a coronavirus.
This is not MERS. MERS infected 186 people in Korea and 2500 people worldwide. COVID-19 is up to more than 700,000 confirmed cases worldwide now, with no signs of slowing down. It's clear that COVID-19 is an entirely different disease - the fact that they're both coronaviruses notwithstanding.
 
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Al Touthentop

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So basically you were talking absolute nonsense, and just talking about their advice for a completely different coronavirus? Remember Dr. Fauci? This is what he said about MERS:


This seems to be backed up solidly by the evidence, given that there’s only been a few thousand MERS cases. Now what do you think might be the difference in terms of transmission between that and the Covid-19 virus that is currently exploding in numbers around the world?

I don't think there's a difference substantially. They are both corona viruses and if you look at the literature MERS was clearly passed person to person. Not sure where that quote is coming from but I suppose you'd have to parse "sustained way."

South Korea did things differently this time around based on what they learned from the MERS outbreak. They obviously did not think covid-19 was so different from MERS that they needed to panic and lock down the entire country. Why, if MERS is completely different?

I want you to explain to me how this says MERS didn't spread by person to person contact. Be precise. Perhaps I've totally misread here. Explain how I did.

It is worth evaluating the major reasons for the rapid spread of MERS-CoV in Korea. Several health care system issues seem to be linked with the rapid transmission of MERS-CoV that occurred in Korea. The Korea-World Health Organization (WHO) MERS Joint Mission reported on the main factors contributing to the MERS transmission in Korea to the WHO Committee in charge of dealing with this outbreak [3]. These factors included lack of awareness among health care professionals and the public about new emerging infectious disease like MERS; weakness in preventing and controlling healthcare associated infections in hospitals; close and prolonged contact of infected MERS patients in crowded emergency rooms and multibed rooms in hospitals; the system permitting patients’ free choices in seeking care (known as “doctor or hospital shopping”); the custom of family members and visitors spending time with infected patients in hospital rooms facilitating the secondary spread of infections among contacts."
Costly Lessons From the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Outbreak in Korea

Did they have common contact with pigs, mice or other livestock? Or did they pass it person to person?
 
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