Bernie May Be Unstoppable By March 18th (or even by March 4th)

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

There is an underreported aspect of the Sanders win yesterday. Bernie's support among Latinos was huge. This will likely continue in Texas and California and Florida.

timothyu · Feb 23, 2020

Beware the Ides of March

St_Worm2 · Feb 23, 2020

mark46 said:
Bernie May Be Unstoppable By March 18th (or even by March 4th)

Superdelegates?

athenken · Feb 23, 2020

He may develop a strong following in Texas, but not enough later on to actually win the state.

Stellar Vision · Feb 23, 2020

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

St_Worm2 said:
Superdelegates?

If Sanders gets 1991 delegates, then it's over on the 1st ballot, as it has been in every election since 1956.

Superdelegates vote on the 2nd round.

Of course, we should remember that the position of Sanders LAST TIME was that a candidate should need more than most of the popular vote going into the convention.

ZNP · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
He may develop a strong following in Texas, but not enough later on to actually win the state.

there are 11 million hispanics in Texas and Republicans won the last election by about 1 million votes, also only about 3 million people voted in Texas, in total. So yes, if Hispanics are actually very motivated to vote for Sanders it could be a very big deal. Likewise in Florida which is a swing state. At the very least this could cause Trump to have to defend Texas.

athenken · Feb 23, 2020

ZNP said:
there are 11 million hispanics in Texas and Republicans won the last election by about 1 million votes, also only about 3 million people voted in Texas, in total. So yes, if Hispanics are actually very motivated to vote for Sanders it could be a very big deal. Likewise in Florida which is a swing state. At the very least this could cause Trump to have to defend Texas.

Honestly, the only hispanics, as well as members of other groups, that would consider voting for Bernie are either illegals or on welfare. And even then you would have to convince them to actually get out and vote.

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
Honestly, the only hispanics, as well as members of other groups, that would consider voting for Bernie are either illegals or on welfare. And even then you would have to convince them to actually get out and vote.

So you believe that half the Democrats in NV and a large percentage in Iowa and NH meet these criteria. What rubbish!

ZNP · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
Honestly, the only hispanics, as well as members of other groups, that would consider voting for Bernie are either illegals or on welfare. And even then you would have to convince them to actually get out and vote.

It seems to me that anyone who earns in the bottom 50% of the US, or who has a kid about to go to college, or who doesn't have health care would vote for Sanders. Any Hispanics in Texas fall into one of those categories?

GodLovesCats · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
Honestly, the only Hispanics, as well as members of other groups, that would consider voting for Bernie are either illegals or on welfare. And even then you would have to convince them to actually get out and vote.

Illegal immigrants are not allowed to vote, so they would never consider voting for him.

I guess you paid no attention to the Nevada caucus. The reason Bernie Sanders blew out everyone else is a lot of voters in that state are Hispanics.

athenken · Feb 23, 2020

mark46 said:
So you believe that half the Democrats in NV and a large percentage in Iowa and NH meet these criteria. What rubbish!

I didn't say the group would exclusively include those people. There are other idiots who simply want a free ride that will vote for him.

athenken · Feb 23, 2020

ChristianForCats said:
Illegal immigrants are not allowed to vote, so they would never consider voting for him.

I guess you paid no attention to the Nevada caucus. The reason Bernie Sanders blew out everyone else is a lot of voters in that state are Hispanics.

Was that an open primary?

GodLovesCats · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
Was that an open primary?

No, it was a closed caucus. South Carolina has an open primary.

Aldebaran · Feb 23, 2020

athenken said:
Honestly, the only hispanics, as well as members of other groups, that would consider voting for Bernie are either illegals or on welfare. And even then you would have to convince them to actually get out and vote.

If they do, it will still be claimed that illegals can't actually vote.

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

ZNP said:
It seems to me that anyone who earns in the bottom 50% of the US, or who has a kid about to go to college, or who doesn't have health care would vote for Sanders. .

This is probably the worst political analysis I've seen in awhile. There are lots of other issues. Even some of those who might get the free gifts understand this may not be the right candidate.

ZNP · Feb 23, 2020

mark46 said:
This is probably the worst political analysis I've seen in awhile. There are lots of other issues. Even some of those who might get the free gifts understand this may not be the right candidate.

In the end it comes down to 3 choices, A, B, or none of the above. In previous elections the vast majority of eligible voters in Texas have chosen "none of the above". College can easily cost $240,000 over 4 years, I have yet to see a Presidential campaign that was offering to impact my life by that amount. Seriously, if choice A is save $240,000 and choice B is Trump how can that not be a major motivating issue?

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

ZNP said:
In the end it comes down to 3 choices, A, B, or none of the above. In previous elections the vast majority of eligible voters in Texas have chosen "none of the above". College can easily cost $240,000 over 4 years, I have yet to see a Presidential campaign that was offering to impact my life by that amount. Seriously, if choice A is save $240,000 and choice B is Trump how can that not be a major motivating issue?

HOW CAN VOTING TO SAVE $240K ISN"T A MOTIVATING ISSUE?
1) when the candidate has zero chance of winning with his platform.
2) when the candidate, if elected has exactly zero chance of passing legislation so that I save $240K

ZNP · Feb 23, 2020

mark46 said:
HOW CAN VOTING TO SAVE $240K ISN"T A MOTIVATING ISSUE?
1) when the candidate has zero chance of winning with his platform.
2) when the candidate, if elected has exactly zero chance of passing legislation so that I save $240K

That is funny, made me laugh.

That is like voting to impeach a president when you know there is zero chance of the Senate removing him from office.

mark46 · Feb 23, 2020

yup, just as wasteful

So, a candidate promises you $240k that he has no chance of giving you, and your response is to vote for him. I guess the other candidate should offer more, since actual results don't matter.

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