Who will be the democratic nominee?

HTacianas · Feb 18, 2020

Place your bets now.

I'm thinking it will be Bloomberg. It seems like the Democrats weren't happy with any of their organic candidates then Bloomberg made himself available.

It will end up another brokered convention and the superdelegates will have their way.

mark46 · Feb 18, 2020

HTacianas said:
Place your bets now.

I'm thinking it will be Bloomberg. It seems like the Democrats weren't happy with any of their organic candidates then Bloomberg made himself available.

It will end up another brokered convention and the superdelegates will have their way.

BLOOMBERG seems most likely. The Vegas betting lines favor him winning the nomination and then beating Trump. I have BIDEN as next most likely, and also beating Trump. Then there is the possibility of Sanders and an Electoral College disaster, as well as well as losing the House to the Republicans.

The Democratic Party hasn't had a brokered convention since there were primaries.

In 2016, Clinton had a majority before the adding of super delegates. This year, the super delegates won't be allowed to vote in the first round. So, Sanders will have additional opportunities to get 50% before the second round starts.

IMO, Sanders incapable of getting more than 45% of the delegates (basically his, most of Warren's and a few more).

Silverback · Feb 18, 2020

mark46 said:
BLOOMBERG seems most likely. The Vegas betting lines favor him winning the nomination and then beating Trump. I have BIDEN as next most likely, and also beating Trump. Then there is the possibility of Sanders and an Electoral College disaster, as well as well as losing the House to the Republicans.

The Democratic Party hasn't had a brokered convention since there were primaries.

In 2016, Clinton had a majority before the adding of super delegates. This year, the super delegates won't be allowed to vote in the first round. So, Sanders will have additional opportunities to get 50% before the second round starts.

IMO, Sanders incapable of getting more than 45% of the delegates (basically his, most of Warren's and a few more).

Bloomberg

Trading in one narcissist for another narcissist, one billionaire for another billionaire, and one dinosaur for another dinosaur.

Might as well keep President Trump.

Albion · Feb 18, 2020

Honestly, there's no telling.

Kentonio · Feb 18, 2020

Bernie by a landslide. Bloomberg is about to have a very bad few weeks.

Bobber · Feb 18, 2020

Bloomberg I suspect but if he thinks or imagines it'll be a walk in the park to beat Trump he'll face a reality check quite quick. Trump came out with an agenda that resonated with the American people and that was to create major change in Washington. (as in drain the swamp) Bloomberg wants to bring back the old. Even Bernie supporters DON'T WANT THAT.

Rubiks · Feb 18, 2020

Kentonio said:
Bernie by a landslide. Bloomberg is about to have a very bad few weeks.

Iowa and New Hampshire are most likely going to be just about his best performances. Not a "landslide victory" by any means.

Albion · Feb 18, 2020

While I'm hesitant to pick a probable winner at this point, something in the back of my mind tells me it won't be Bloomberg, despite his money.

He's not very likeable or personable, from what I can tell, not a great public speaker, and much about him cuts across the grain of Democratic Party activists.

He is a political "party hopper" having been a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican in a relatively short period of time--all coinciding with what would be most advantageous to him at the moment.

We already have seen how his public remarks in the past were cold-blooded and offended several Democratic constituencies.

He IS "trying to buy the nomination." That's sort of a well-travelled charge to level at any well-heeled candidate, but in this case, it's all his own money and he brags about how much he has. The amount spent probably will break all records by the time it's done. This profile cannot sit well with Democratic activists and delegates..

mark46 · Feb 18, 2020

Rubiks said:
Iowa and New Hampshire are most likely going to be just about his best performances. Not a "landslide victory" by any means.

I presume that this is your wish. Please post any evidence that this is likely to be the best performances of Sanders.

Sanders get about 26% of the vote in Iowa and NH.

The latest polls in NV and SC average about the same with Bernie having 31% of Nevada and 20% of SC. Bernie is at 26% in CA.

mark46 · Feb 18, 2020

This is a fine analysis.

Older blacks and Latinos are in the same position as white evangelicals were in the 2016 Republican race. Will they hold their collective noses and vote for Bloomberg if their candidate (Biden) doesn't do better too? Or, do they allow the Democratic party to nominate Sanders, and work with Bloomberg and Steyer to save House seats.

It is indeed very difficult to turn back these left wing waves that occur after an electoral loss. If Trump weren't so awful, the moderates wouldn't be trying so hard. They would simply focusing on the Senate, the House, on state races, and on local races. Surely, they would hope to pick up the pieces after a Sanders loss.
===========
The ads showing Obama praising Trump are probably playing in every primary state on an hourly basis.
I don't anything will convince older women of color to vote for Sanders (or for Buttigieg or Warren).

Albion said:
While I'm hesitant to pick a probable winner at this point, something in the back of my mind tells me it won't be Bloomberg, despite his money.

He's not very likeable or personable, from what I can tell, not a great public speaker, and much about him cuts across the grain of Democratic Party activists.

He is a political "party hopper" having been a Democrat, an Independent, and a Republican in a relatively short period of time--all coinciding with what would be most advantageous to him at the moment.

We already have seen how his public remarks in the past were cold-blooded and offended several Democratic constituencies.

He IS "trying to buy the nomination." That's sort of a well-travelled charge to level at a well-healed candidate, but in this case, it's all his own money and he brags about how much he has.

Plus, it probably will break all records, by the time it's done. This cannot sit well with Democratic leaders, by which I mean convention delegates who are not just nice people who volunteered to attend the convention but are loyal, usually longtime, party workers.

GodLovesCats · Feb 18, 2020

I started a thread on the same topic with a poll.

Kentonio · Feb 18, 2020

Rubiks said:
Iowa and New Hampshire are most likely going to be just about his best performances. Not a "landslide victory" by any means.

I think you’ll be very surprised with what’s about to come if you think that.

Rubiks · Feb 18, 2020

mark46 said:
I presume that this is your wish. Please post any evidence that this is likely to be the best performances of Sanders.

Sanders get about 26% of the vote in Iowa and NH.

The latest polls in NV and SC average about the same with Bernie having 31% of Nevada and 20% of SC. Bernie is at 26% in CA.

Sanders Voters are disproportionally white and Iowa/New Hampshire are mostly white.

Who will be the democratic nominee?

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