Need some advice, coronavirus, expecting social and service distruptions

Petros2015 · Feb 16, 2020

Hello,

I am expecting possible quarantines, entering voluntary quarantine for my own safety, possible service disruptions as a result of coronavirus spread if it occurs unchecked in the US. We have never seen a pandemic like this in our current 'just in time' global economy. I'm not sure what is going to happen. It does, in my opinion, have the potential to get Bad.

I live in the city, plan to stay there unless things get really bad. (i.e. full on riots I can't handle, or unchecked fire with no fire department support). I do have a fall back area outside of the city if I need it, though it's possible in a quarantine situation the ability to leave the city may not be present. Preparing for brown-outs, possible black outs (hopefully not extended ones) and food shortages. I've been doing some basic supply prepping for about 3 weeks both of food stock, masks, home defense.

But... I've never done this before. What I would like is some advice for a good preppers book; rain water collection, useful things to do with stuff that I have a lot of (cardboard?) and other things. Any kind of prepping for quarantine or city living. I don't feel like I can 100% depend on power, water, grocery food stocks (not sure I would want to go out to get them anyway even if there were there) or police/military control of the population. I do feel like I have (some) time, though I'm not sure how much. I could probably ride out about 6 months now with intermittant service disruptions, but... there's a real possbility in my mind that it might get worse than that.

Any advice on good books covering the basics of this situation, please let me know. Amazon and telecommuting are presently my friends

I want to make as good use of them as I can while I can.

SkyWriting · Feb 16, 2020

Petros2015 said:
Hello,

I am expecting possible quarantines, entering voluntary quarantine for my own safety, possible service disruptions as a result of coronavirus spread if it occurs unchecked in the US. We have never seen a pandemic like this in our current 'just in time' global economy. I'm not sure what is going to happen. It does, in my opinion, have the potential to get Bad.

I live in the city, plan to stay there unless things get really bad. (i.e. full on riots I can't handle, or unchecked fire with no fire department support). I do have a fall back area outside of the city if I need it, though it's possible in a quarantine situation the ability to leave the city may not be present. Preparing for brown-outs, possible black outs (hopefully not extended ones) and food shortages. I've been doing some basic supply prepping for about 3 weeks both of food stock, masks, home defense.

But... I've never done this before. What I would like is some advice for a good preppers book; rain water collection, useful things to do with stuff that I have a lot of (cardboard?) and other things. Any kind of prepping for quarantine or city living. I don't feel like I can 100% depend on power, water, grocery food stocks (not sure I would want to go out to get them anyway even if there were there) or police/military control of the population. I do feel like I have (some) time, though I'm not sure how much. I could probably ride out about 6 months now with intermittant service disruptions, but... there's a real possbility in my mind that it might get worse than that.

Any advice on good books covering the basics of this situation, please let me know. Amazon and telecommuting are presently my friends I want to make as good use of them as I can while I can.

The US has never had the problems China has. Their population "rubs shoulders" much more than the US does. Rather than pack a train full for example, people in the US will stay home rather than rub shoulders with other people.

This version of the virus is not showing signs of an extended incubation period and has a low fatality rate. Likely it won't be an issue in the US for most to worry about.

The Wuhan coronavirus seems to have a low fatality rate,

All but two of those fatalities occurred in China, where the virus emerged.

Richard T · Feb 17, 2020

I think I am in about the same place as you with this as a possible pandemic. I would look at getting more food and water, especially the means to collect water as you suggest. I too have a fallback rural position and will go there at the first hint of a quarantine. I could be wrong, but it seems unlikely that they would ban all travel throughout the states all at once, though one could find themselves trapped in a hot zone. (Usually governments are one step behind, Katrina showed us that even the USA government can be incompetent) One thing I am impressed on is to have dental, medical and pharmacy items as up-to-date as possible. The last thing you want is to find some medical provider during a crisis for something unrelated. Hopefully some others will chime in with suggested books for specific, practical ways to prep.

Spiritlight · Feb 17, 2020

I am not a prepper however dont like seeing people in distress. It has the same statistics as the common flu regarding mortality and recovery. the best defence against it is having your bodies immunities in peak condition. Anxiety and stress lower your immunities and make it easier to catch it and sadly the media is causing a lot of anxiety in the population that may not be warranted and certainly not beneficial. It is a bigger issue in countries with big populations and low quality healthcare.

My prepping for this is..

Relax.

Eat healthy amounts of fresh fruit and veg to get immunities high.

Get plenty of exercise and some sunlight exposure for immunities to fight off illnesses.

I do hope that helps a bit.

Petros2015 · Feb 17, 2020

SkyWriting said:
The US has never had the problems China has.

Looking for book recommendations from experienced preppers; to discuss opinions on my opinion, I would recommend the thread

Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

To monitor spread, I would recommend

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

To calculate expected mortality, I would recommend

IXL | Online math and English language arts practice.

SkyWriting · Feb 17, 2020

Petros2015 said:
Looking for book recommendations from experienced preppers;

Then the most awesome prepper I've ever read about:

The Miracle Morning - Amazon.com

Arbown · Feb 17, 2020

My thoughts:

Make sure you have two or three months of food stocked. Not hard to find emergency buckets. Get'em now to avoid shopping with the sick folks later. If you have water barrels already, fill them up as you sense things getting close. You can use some bleach or iodine to store water long term and avoid bacteria.
Gloves, boots, rain suit, N95 mask and swim goggles with duct tape to seal the sleeves/pants/ edges will give you a ghetto hazard suit for avoiding at least some of the germs, hopefully all of them.
Stock up on medicine you need as China has been the manufacturer of a lot, and now they aren't doing squat. Prices are gonna soar there. Stock now. Check your medicine cabinet. You want some Colloidal Silver/Iodine/Elder Berry products to kill viruses, pain killers, and the usual flu stuff. Make sure you have medical supplies NOW. Not later.
Bleach. You can never have too much. Ghetto suit will need to be washed down outside the house with bleach water to kill germs on the surface. Get a sprayer to be able to spray your bleach onto your suit while you are wearing it. 1 gallon of water to 1/4 cup of bleach. Kill the bio-engineered monster dead.
Candles will give you light if the power goes out. Grab some cheap ones. Batteries are good to have if you don't already have stock, and if you can, a solar recharger for batteries is great. Basically stock up on things you should be keeping around for power outages.
Toilet paper - do you have a month's worth? What other things do you buy and use daily? Stock up on those non-perishables. Cleaner, soap, shampoo, etc. Hygiene is critical for keeping germs off. You will want o shower each time you come into your house, or even better, outside with a camping shower before entering.

Petros2015 · Feb 22, 2020

SkyWriting said:
Then the most awesome prepper I'm ever read about:

The Miracle Morning - Amazon.com

Touche' my friend

Petros2015 · Feb 22, 2020

Arbown said:
My thoughts:

Make sure you have two or three months of food stocked. Not hard to find emergency buckets. Get'em now to avoid shopping with the sick folks later. If you have water barrels already, fill them up as you sense things getting close. You can use some bleach or iodine to store water long term and avoid bacteria.

Gloves, boots, rain suit, N95 mask and swim goggles with duct tape to seal the sleeves/pants/ edges will give you a ghetto hazard suit for avoiding at least some of the germs, hopefully all of them.

Stock up on medicine you need as China has been the manufacturer of a lot, and now they aren't doing squat. Prices are gonna soar there. Stock now. Check your medicine cabinet. You want some Colloidal Silver/Iodine/Elder Berry products to kill viruses, pain killers, and the usual flu stuff. Make sure you have medical supplies NOW. Not later.

Bleach. You can never have too much. Ghetto suit will need to be washed down outside the house with bleach water to kill germs on the surface. Get a sprayer to be able to spray your bleach onto your suit while you are wearing it. 1 gallon of water to 1/4 cup of bleach. Kill the bio-engineered monster dead.

Candles will give you light if the power goes out. Grab some cheap ones. Batteries are good to have if you don't already have stock, and if you can, a solar recharger for batteries is great. Basically stock up on things you should be keeping around for power outages.

Toilet paper - do you have a month's worth? What other things do you buy and use daily? Stock up on those non-perishables. Cleaner, soap, shampoo, etc. Hygiene is critical for keeping germs off. You will want o shower each time you come into your house, or even better, outside with a camping shower before entering.

Most of the basics here we should be good on we've got at least 6 months food if not more - solar charger is a great idea, hadn't thought of that. Bleach is on the to-get list. TP, we are great on some of the other basics of hygiene we could use some extras. More basic med supplies definitely a good idea. More duct tape! lol. Candles never bad, I picked up a generator a couple weeks ago when the # of cases his 20000. 15 gallons of gas storage currently (empty at moment, but ready to fill). I might increase that a little. Battery power for laptops... Tools checked and sorted.

When the # of cases hit 30000 I negotiated for a telecommuting arrangement with my boss at work. I get 1 day a week at 40000 + 1 day for every 20000 known active cases over that.

Thinking about picking up a 3d printer, I've always wanted one but I could see that being very useful, especially one that could run off batter. Generator = brief power as needed for laptop and printer. Printer = create any small component I find necessary for repair or other use. Kinda handy to have during a Global Catastrophic Society Fail...

Took Handgun Qualification Licenses class yesterday - fiance' already had a couple of pistols in the house for personal protection and enjoyment. Good class, I learned a lot, she retook it to refresh. Instructor was great, gave us a couples discount and we'll enjoy doing target practice safely while we can. That plus a few other things used in creative ways = home defense and crowd control as needed.

I might pick up some canvas's and more supplies; fun things to do around the home. Got some garden seeds, going to get a few more tools and things at home depot that would be useful anyway.

We have a brief 'breather' at the moment; I expect the number of Known Active cases to be going down this month. Known Active = Confirmed - Recovered - Dead

Current Known Active peaked around 60000
Is currently 77918 - 2361 -21250 = 54,307

But I also expect it to come ROARING back in March
There are probably at least 5x that amount Unknown Active
These will be younger people age 20 or less which the virus causes mild to known symptoms in, but are still contagious. They get the sniffles, we get the pneumonia.

Big problems are

#1 China ended their extended work holiday about a week ago, so China you'll see China come screaming back
#2 South Korea has been doubling every couple of days, not good
#3 Japan has been climbing by about 10% per day? I think? Haven't run an exact #. Was 74 on 2/18
#4 India has reported only 3 cases in Dehli and that was weeks ago. Hah! Very unlikely, probably booming there, they just don't know where they are
#5 Iran has reported 5 cases and 5 deaths. That doesn't jive. That number would work if they had about 600 confirmed cases with 200 of them currently in severe condition. This morning I checked and they are up to 28 cases, which is at least better than before
#6 Global spread is occurring, with cases cropping up that have nothing to do with China
and #7...

... Everything else.

SkyWriting · Feb 22, 2020

Petros2015 said:
I am expecting possible quarantines, entering voluntary quarantine for my own safety, possible service disruptions as a result of coronavirus spread if it occurs unchecked in the US.

Any US outbreak will be temporary and limited to a few locations. Our communication channels are more open than in communist countries. Ours are instantaneous through digital media. In China communication takes a couple months and needs government approval.

It might be useful to note that zooming in on the China map, the cases are all focused in rural areas or outside of the cities. The data suggests that the cities are safer. Consider staying out of rural areas. Likely wearing face masks is socially acceptable when everyone is doing it around you.

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

No deaths, just cases:
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

The fatality rate looks to be 11%

I like these items:

91bJOjMfhJL._SX425_PIbundle-48,TopRight,0,0_SX425SY459SH20_.jpg

Petros2015 · Feb 23, 2020

SkyWriting said:
In China communication takes a couple months and needs government approval.

... I'm not sure this is representative of the state of communication in China... ?
Do Chinese not have cell phones? Social media or internet is more restricted, monitored or filtered.

SkyWriting said:
Any US outbreak will be temporary and limited to a few locations.

Umm... Wuhan was a city of 11 million people, New York City has 8, I believe. The quarantine of Wuhan was roughly equivalent to us quarantining Manhattan Island. I doubt we would be able or willing to do that as quickly as they did when they understood the problem...

SkyWriting said:
the cases are all focused in rural areas or outside of the cities. The data suggests that the cities are safer.

I think that's probably an issue where if they don't have exact lat/long data for the cases, they use GPS 'dead center' of the province/state/county. I zoomed in on one the US cases and got City Hall for the state lol. But I doubt that's really representative of where the single case was. Most of the 64000 cases in Hubei province are in the city of Wuhan, I believe, though zooming in on the red dot won't look like that. It will look like they are all congregated in a farm field in the center of Hubei province.

FreeinChrist · Mar 1, 2020

Petros2015 said:
Hello,

I am expecting possible quarantines, entering voluntary quarantine for my own safety, possible service disruptions as a result of coronavirus spread if it occurs unchecked in the US. We have never seen a pandemic like this in our current 'just in time' global economy. I'm not sure what is going to happen. It does, in my opinion, have the potential to get Bad.

I live in the city, plan to stay there unless things get really bad. (i.e. full on riots I can't handle, or unchecked fire with no fire department support). I do have a fall back area outside of the city if I need it, though it's possible in a quarantine situation the ability to leave the city may not be present. Preparing for brown-outs, possible black outs (hopefully not extended ones) and food shortages. I've been doing some basic supply prepping for about 3 weeks both of food stock, masks, home defense.

But... I've never done this before. What I would like is some advice for a good preppers book; rain water collection, useful things to do with stuff that I have a lot of (cardboard?) and other things. Any kind of prepping for quarantine or city living. I don't feel like I can 100% depend on power, water, grocery food stocks (not sure I would want to go out to get them anyway even if there were there) or police/military control of the population. I do feel like I have (some) time, though I'm not sure how much. I could probably ride out about 6 months now with intermittant service disruptions, but... there's a real possbility in my mind that it might get worse than that.

Any advice on good books covering the basics of this situation, please let me know. Amazon and telecommuting are presently my friends I want to make as good use of them as I can while I can.

For the current situation, I would have about 2 weeks worth of food supplies (maybe more), and if you are on a medication, make sure you have enough for awhile.

As for sources for information, I like this site:

Get Prepared: What You Need to Know to Get Started!

and regularly read articles here:
www.offthegridnews.com

Jok · Mar 4, 2020

Petros2015 said:
We have never seen a pandemic like this in our current 'just in time' global economy. I'm not sure what is going to happen. It does, in my opinion, have the potential to get Bad.

The reaction to it is the part that I believe could be bad. I'm not exactly trembling at this pandemic. I have no clue how they would have even an accurate guess at how many have the virus based on incubation period, how contagious it is, and how they have almost tested nobody at all for it. It make no sense. How there is any confidence it this 2% death rate is a mystery to me. So I think that any panic would be short lived. Maybe just load up the panty and refrigerator very well.

Julian of Norwich · Mar 9, 2020

Jok said:
The reaction to it is the part that I believe could be bad. I'm not exactly trembling at this pandemic. I have no clue how they would have even an accurate guess at how many have the virus based on incubation period, how contagious it is, and how they have almost tested nobody at all for it. It make no sense. How there is any confidence it this 2% death rate is a mystery to me. So I think that any panic would be short lived. Maybe just load up the panty and refrigerator very well.

And TP!

Need some advice, coronavirus, expecting social and service distruptions

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