Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)
- Thread starter essentialsaltes
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It jumped because the Chinese govt replaced an older, less accurate test that took 2 days to provide a result with one that is more accurate and provided results quickly. In some cases with the old test, people had to travel to a local hospital then wait for two days for the result, meaning many people gave up or got scared waiting with other sick people and went home.
Thus a large number of un-diagnosed people have now shown up as positive. I would expect it to even out after a week or so.
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I suspect that the number of cases that we're seeing out of China are still artificially low. Communist countries tend to tightly control the flow of information, and it's usually skewed in a conservative direction when it comes to information which tends to generate fear in the population. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the number of actual cases is close to double what have been reported to date.
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If SARS is any guide - things should fizzle out (at least outside China) in about 4-6 month's time.
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I don't think you can go by the SARS scenario since this virus is *far* more contagious than SARS and also less lethal (percentage wise). Both of those key differences will increase it's ability to spread more widely than SARS. This could easily spread worldwide.
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Petros2015
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Very true.
Umm... I don't recall SARS being a 15% overall killer.
I do recall people saying it was only a 2% killer for months and months until the numbers stopped growing, and then the lagtime of kills resolved as people who were taking week to die finally passed on.
Here are the final stats for SARS
(old 2003 article SARS)
Estimates of SARS death rates revised upward
(WHO consensus on SARS, pg 13)
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf
(2020 Wikipedia article SARS)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome - Wikipedia
Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory disease of zoonotic origin caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries (9.6% fatality rate),[1] with the majority of cases in mainland China and Hong Kong.[2]
This is outmatching it...
Like SARS, very age dependant. So, if you are around 20 yrs old or less, no problem. But as you get older and older above that, bigger and bigger problem. Ask the 34 year old who whistleblower who died of it.
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Tanj
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Please just stop with this "militarization" meme. It's not a thing. Apart from handing virus contaminated blankets to indigenous peoples, there hasn't been a single instance of a weaponized virus in the history of humankind, and if we were going to weaponize one, it wouldn't be one with an envelope.
It also cannot "mutate into anything", and given the history of most other viruses on the planet, any mutating it does will be towards less lethality, not more.
They aren't low due to artificiality. They are low because of the saturated Chinese medical system, and the vast number of people that get a disease so mild they don't bother going to hospital, current modelling suggests about 200 000 cases.
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timothyu
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This one apparently has gone from contact to airborne and as of today the 14 day window is out as a woman who was well past that quarantine came down with the virus. But such is life. For all of our human bravdo we can still be humbled by a virus.
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Tanj
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It was never just contact. It has always been airborne.
The fact we don't know enough about it doesn't mean it's mutating. It means we don't know enough about it.
Entirely true, but there are far more interesting examples of this than corona, which at 40k is on the hefty side. polio has a 7.5k genome and encodes 10 proteins. Now that's humbling.
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I've seen a couple of interviews with Australian scientists directly involved with analysing the virus and developing a vaccine. Given past experience with corona type virus' they appear to be fairly optimistic that, given no unexpected complications, a vaccine may be possible in 4 to 6 months. The major delay appears to be the human testing phase.
OB
OB
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It could be debated how likely they would be to mutate that direction naturally. But there were some trying to do these gain of function experiments.
Inside America's secretive biolabs
At a few labs, experiments have been done with strains of flu and other viruses purposely made to be more dangerous in studies that seek to understand how they might mutate naturally. White House science advisers called for a temporary halt of that kind of "gain of function" research last fall while expert scientific panels spend the next year studying its risks and benefits.
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San Diego lab claims to have discovered a coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours — but testing it will take months
It is claimed they already have one ready for testing.
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Tanj
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My blood lights up like a Chistmas tree when tested for any flavivirus, including all 4 dengues, japanese encephalits and yellow fever.
Phhbt. The major delay with be the clinical phase testing. A year. Maybe.
With some well known, and extensively well studied existing human pathogens. And not even a hint of a whiff of a trace of being in even a neighboring universe of "militarized", nor, from the article any evidence they succeeded.
Polio is a fatal disease causing, water borne picornavirus
rhino virus is a trivial disease causing airborne picornavirus
Both have been know and studied for decades. Can we point to the genetics of why one is a trivial airborne and the other a fatal water borne? No, no we can't.
But yeah, some ultragenious took a virus we dont care much about and made a nasty human pathogen out of it and released it in a Chinese food market because reasons.
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