Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

Goonie said:
I was hoping for 'Captain Trips'

I prefer "The Thunberg Solution"

durangodawood · Feb 11, 2020

Petros2015 said:
Oh thank goodness. There, problem solved.

At least its no longer a "nameless terror".

durangodawood · Feb 11, 2020

Petros2015 said:
I prefer "The Thunberg Solution"

I dont recall her advocating a cull.

But if you say so...

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

durangodawood said:
I dont recall her advocating a cull. But if you say so...

She didn't advocate this as a solution (and I don't imagine she would), but if you listen to her speech again, and then go back and look at the expected kill distribution by age, and the empty highways of Wuhan, it makes me wonder if someone might have chosen to implement it on her behalf.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Goonie said:
Captain Trips

King's best book.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

durangodawood said:
At least its no longer a "nameless terror".

But the minute you name it, it becomes yours.

durangodawood · Feb 11, 2020

timothyu said:
But the minute you name it, it becomes yours.

Is this some kind of country wisdom regarding pets?

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Petros2015 said:
She didn't advocate this as a solution (and I don't imagine she would), but if you listen to her speech again, and then go back and look at the expected kill distribution by age, and the empty highways of Wuhan, it makes me wonder if someone might have chosen to implement it on her behalf.

Consider that with the regular flu, and the corony corony (as Yosemite Sam would say) Germany is now being hit hard with a bird flu. Seems rather all too convenient to be coincidence.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

durangodawood said:
Is this some kind of country wisdom regarding pets?

Pets, women, flu, all the same

Bobber · Feb 11, 2020

timothyu said:
That reminds me of an old joke.
A woman was sitting on her porch as flood waters rose. A rescue truck driving by offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me. The flood continued, forcing her to the second floor of her home. A rescue boat came by and offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me.

The water rose and she was forced onto the roof. A rescue helicopter came by and offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me. The waters rose and she drowned.

Upon meeting God she asked, I trusted you, why didn't you save me? God said 'Hey, I sent you a truck and boat and a helicopter.'

And then there's the story of two people on an airplane that's going to crash. One says to the other who is very upset, "No need to be upset. You should just know when you're number is up your number is up!" The other responds, "Yeah but maybe your number is up but mine isn't and I'm just in the wrong place at the wrong time!"

Bobber · Feb 11, 2020

Let me ask this...is it right to say that within the next three to four weeks all countries in the world might enter into an absolute panic? Speaking of North America how can one envision what would take place? And how soon would we see the stock market effected? It seems like at least right now there's confidence this thing will eventually wane. Is that pure presumptuous thinking? Thoughts?

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Bobber said:
Is that pure presumptuous thinking? Thoughts?

Think it might effect turnout at Democrat rallies? Would the fear factor be politically advantageous? The markets are already effected. Fear is a great means of control. Global fear indicates an opportunity for great changes.

But realistically all the focus has been on how long the virus takes to show itself. No one is talking how long before it kills. Day"s? Weeks? That would indicate how long a world wide quarantine where everyone was isolated takes place. Stay home. When it is quarantined and all effected survive or die without any more spread, the clock is reset back to before the outbreak is it not? Can those with money to be lost under those conditions condone such an action or will money prove more essential than common sense?

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

timothyu said:
No one is talking how long before it kills. Day"s? Weeks?

Roughly 3-4 weeks with good hospital treatment 'invasive oxygenation' i.e. mechanical breathing. Something on the order of 2-3 weeks I expect if no or poor treatment available i.e. sorry wait in line for the next available respirator.

Bobber said:
Speaking of North America how can one envision what would take place?

Panic, I think, will not set in until suddenly they realize there have been infected riding major metros or subways, and those public transports need to close. Contact tracing will be infeasible at that point. About that same time, I imagine (within a couple of weeks), an elected official will be confirmed positive.

I think that should do it, expect a snowball from there if you see that.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

If they panic over bread and milk for an inch of snow I can imagine what a month at home will do.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Come to think of it, the baby boom after being cooped up at home for a month would probably repopulate the world on the plus side in no time .

Petros2015 · Feb 12, 2020

First time I've been able to say this in about a month, but I think we are going to be OK. As long as everyone in the global theater plays nice, and there are no 'invisible Wuhans' brewing somewhere in the slums of some 3rd world nation or the New York subway. I ran some projections using rolling 7 day average growth rates of all known outbreaks. Wuhan growth rate has dropped to about 5% and most other provinces or areas while in danger of Wuhan'ing, shouldn't. I assumed a continued 5% growth rate in Wuhan, but also a rolling 21 day removal of cases (if, 21 days ago there were 270 cases, the current case # grows by 5%, and then gets the cases from 21 days ago removed - they are recovered, fatalities, or more or less resolved. Regardless, they shouldn't be contributing to further growth, confirmed cases are usually in lockdown). The other provinces with slower growth rates due due quarantine and not being caught off guard initially as bad a Wuhan was can't make up for the cases that Wuhan won't generate and that eventually it loses due to resolution. This actually results in a peak of about 60k cases in a week or so, and then, as you remove the resolved cases, a drop of the confirmed cases that really matter from a contagion/growth perspective. Things potentially start to look sane by the end of February. The death toll will keep rolling in behind it unfortunately, nothing to be done about that. I'm not an epidemiologist, just a numbers guy. I scream a lot when I see numbers I don't like, but these are good numbers to see projecting into the future at the moment, whereas 12 days ago they were catastrophic. I'm sure you will hear more from me if they trend back that way, but for the moment... it looks like I get to see Cirque du Soleil in July after all.

Goonie · Feb 12, 2020

Petros2015 said:
First time I've been able to say this in about a month, but I think we are going to be OK. As long as everyone in the global theater plays nice, and there are no 'invisible Wuhans' brewing somewhere in the slums of some 3rd world nation or the New York subway. I ran some projections using rolling 7 day average growth rates of all known outbreaks. Wuhan growth rate has dropped to about 5% and most other provinces or areas while in danger of Wuhan'ing, shouldn't. I assumed a continued 5% growth rate in Wuhan, but also a rolling 21 day removal of cases (if, 21 days ago there were 270 cases, the current case # grows by 5%, and then gets the cases from 21 days ago removed - they are recovered, fatalities, or more or less resolved. Regardless, they shouldn't be contributing to further growth, confirmed cases are usually in lockdown). The other provinces with slower growth rates due due quarantine and not being caught off guard initially as bad a Wuhan was can't make up for the cases that Wuhan won't generate and that eventually it loses due to resolution. This actually results in a peak of about 60k cases in a week or so, and then, as you remove the resolved cases, a drop of the confirmed cases that really matter from a contagion/growth perspective. Things potentially start to look sane by the end of February. The death toll will keep rolling in behind it unfortunately, nothing to be done about that. I'm not an epidemiologist, just a numbers guy. I scream a lot when I see numbers I don't like, but these are good numbers to see projecting into the future at the moment, whereas 12 days ago they were catastrophic. I'm sure you will hear more from me if they trend back that way, but for the moment... it looks like I get to see Cirque du Soleil in July after all.

For invisible wuhans I'd look at Indonesia, who claim to have zero cases, and is not even testing those returning from China.

Petros2015 · Feb 12, 2020

Petros2015 said:
As long as everyone in the global theater plays nice, and there are no 'invisible Wuhans' brewing somewhere

Unfortunately, there must have been something; the numbers just jumped by 15,000(!).
I think still in Hubei, not sure what happened.
If everyone has been under reporting, then I'm not 3 steps ahead like I thought.
I'll have to take a closer look a little later.

Yeesh.

tall73 · Feb 13, 2020

Yeah, unfortunately it jumped quite a bit: 60,331 official cases, 1,369 deaths.

New COVID-19 Cases Surge 10-Fold in Hubei Province

The new classification system of COVID-19 was meant to ensure that “patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment,” according to the Hubei Province Health Commission.

The statement hinted that Hubei may have previously been under-counting the number of official cases of the coronavirus, adding that the change was “in order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...0c3606-4d21-11ea-b721-9f4cdc90bc1c_story.html

China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency announced Thursday that national health authorities issued revised guidelines to consider “clinically diagnosed” coronavirus cases in the confirmed total. Chinese officials previously only counted cases confirmed by nucleic acid tests, which critics said were faulty and greatly underestimated the true magnitude of the epidemic.

For weeks, Chinese doctors and patients have complained about a lack of nucleic acid testing kits and their accuracy. The dramatic jump in cases in Hubei essentially confirms longtime suspicions that China was for weeks vastly undercounting cases of the virus.

tall73 · Feb 13, 2020

Zero Hedge continues to look at the possibility that the virus was bio-engineered, and inadvertently released.

Sudden Militarization Of Wuhan's P4 Lab Raises New Questions About The Origin Of The Deadly Covid-19 Virus

Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

Well-Known Member

Dis Member

Dis Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Dis Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Well-Known Member

Not so Mystic Mog.

Well-Known Member

Sophia7's husband

Sophia7's husband

Similar threads