Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

Petros2015 · Feb 10, 2020

Goonie said:
According to research by the Imperial College London the mortality/fatality rate of coronavirus likely to be 18%

Do you have a link for their statement or paper?

Unfortunately, I would have to agree. I knew it was at least SARS level (10%). But as the numbers come in... yeesh.

This ratio:

Is not good. Double Plus Bad. It is not finalized, but it is a much, much, more accurate picture than looking at total fatality (910) / total confirmed (40,573) = 2.2% which does not reflect reality AT ALL.

Hubei/Wuhan is where it started and where there has been time for things to resolve as recovered vs fatal. Takes time to resolve, about 2-3? weeks. I was estimating 3,300 dead by Feb 22, but might be higher. There were only 2714 cases TOTAL in Wuhan/Hubei province on Jan 27 - that's how screamingly fast this thing was growing.

Those numbers I have circled add up almost EXACTLY to 2714... 2,699 only 15 off.

871 fatalities / 2714 confirmed cases = that is a staggering 32%, almost a 1 in 3 kill.

If that's roughly the case, and God I hope it isn't, then this isn't the SARS warhead on this thing...
...it's the MERS warhead.

"He who has ears, let him hear..."

essentialsaltes · Feb 10, 2020

Bobber said:
If I might ask a question not to get people into any more fear BUT what about material things as in all the shipment of products that come from China. Can these viruses actually be on something physical you buy? Is that of any concern or is it just person to person contact? How real if any is that concern?

Flu viruses can only survive about 24 hours on a hard surface like a desk or doorknob. I don't think imported products pose any risk.

Goonie · Feb 10, 2020

Petros2015 said:
Do you have a link for their statement or paper?

Unfortunately, I would have to agree. I knew it was at least SARS level (10%). But as the numbers come in... yeesh.

This ratio:

View attachment 271776

Is not good. Double Plus Bad. It is not finalized, but it is a much, much, more accurate picture than looking at total fatality (910) / total confirmed (40,573) = 2.2% which does not reflect reality AT ALL.

Hubei/Wuhan is where it started and where there has been time for things to resolve as recovered vs fatal. Takes time to resolve, about 2-3? weeks. I was estimating 3,300 dead by Feb 22, but might be higher. There were only 2714 cases TOTAL in Wuhan/Hubei province on Jan 27 - that's how screamingly fast this thing was growing.

Those numbers I have circled add up almost EXACTLY to 2714... 2,699 only 15 off.

871 fatalities / 2714 confirmed cases = that is a staggering 32%, almost a 1 in 3 kill.

If that's roughly the case, and God I hope it isn't, then this isn't the SARS warhead on this thing...
...it's the MERS warhead.

"He who has ears, let him hear..."

News / 2019-nCoV | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

timothyu · Feb 10, 2020

Bobber said:
Can these viruses actually be on something physical you buy? Is that of any concern or is it just person to person contact? How real if any is that concern?

Viruses cannot live in an open environment like on a dry surface for more than 24 hrs as a rule. Humans make good hosts so unless you are buying a wife or adopting a child you should be safe.

The problem comes with so much counting on cheap Chinese labour, that financial interest and product availability which will effect prices will be the outcome of illness and quarantine over there. It becomes a snowball effect.

tall73 · Feb 10, 2020

Petros2015 said:
We may see it spring up again out of control in other areas or countries. China is actually VERY good at controlling populace and implementing quarantines when they want to be and they have taken this seriously. I'm not sure how the governments in other countries will do..

I sure hope not. There is a new wrinkle that could make that slightly more likely.

Coronavirus could have incubation period of 24 days — 10 days longer than previously thought

Medical researchers in China have found the incubation period for coronavirus ranges up to 24 days — 10 days longer than experts previously thought.

The research was co-authored by Dr Zhong Nanshan, who discovered the SARS coronavirus in 2003 and has been appointed as a leading advisor in managing the current coronavirus crisis.

They have revised the upper end of the incubation period (for a fraction of the cases) to 24 days. That means those two week quarantines put in place based on the previous estimate may be insufficient.

timothyu · Feb 10, 2020

At least those who believe in predestination are sitting comfortable and relaxed. They know it will either kill them or not and there is no sense taking precautions.

durangodawood · Feb 10, 2020

timothyu said:
At least those who believe in predestination are sitting comfortable and relaxed. They know it will either kill them or not and there is no sense taking precautions.

But what if it was predestined that you take precautions?

timothyu · Feb 10, 2020

durangodawood said:
But what if it was predestined that you take precautions?

That reminds me of an old joke.
A woman was sitting on her porch as flood waters rose. A rescue truck driving by offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me. The flood continued, forcing her to the second floor of her home. A rescue boat came by and offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me.

The water rose and she was forced onto the roof. A rescue helicopter came by and offered her a ride to safety. She said no thanks God will save me. The waters rose and she drowned.

Upon meeting God she asked, I trusted you, why didn't you save me? God said 'Hey, I sent you a truck and boat and a helicopter.'

tall73 · Feb 10, 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...eading-rapidly-so-is-misinformation-about-it/

This article claims that reports of Chinese media releases of larger numbers was a Russian misinformation campaign. But it didn't explain how they knew that, or how the Russians put the information in a Taiwanese outlet.

The article indicates to go to gatekeeping groups for official info.

If they have evidence it was the Russians, why not post that?

Goonie · Feb 11, 2020

According to research upto 60% of the world could be infected if unchecked.
Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'
Chinese style quarantines are being urged.

Worrying,. Especially if the Imperial college prediction of an 18% fatality rate is correct.

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

Goonie said:
According to research upto 60% of the world could be infected if unchecked.

Very possible. Highly likely if the below is true. Plus, see my notes on age distribution as well, which will lend itself to this.

tall73 said:
Medical researchers in China have found the incubation period for coronavirus ranges up to 24 days — 10 days longer than experts previously thought.

Yep I saw that yesterday too. Unbelievable, but I'm not sure that it's wrong either. Another bad sign.

Goonie said:
Worrying,. Especially if the Imperial college prediction of an 18% fatality rate is correct.

If that 18% fatality (over all cases, ignoring age) is age distributed like SARS, then roughly:

<= 20 = ~0%, (achoo! virus, what virus? MOM! Where's the allergy medicine??)
21 =~ 1%, (sniffle, I don't see what everyone is so concerned about. Stupid quarantines!)
22 = ~2% (cough cough, I don't feel so good...)
23 = ~3% (this flu SUCKs! - lower estimated kill % of Spanish Influenza)
24 = ~4% (roughly the average kill strength of 'the Big One', Spanish Influenza of 1918)
25 = ~5% (maybe I should be concerned about this?)
26 = ~6% (upper estimated kill % of Spanish Influenza)
27 = ~7% (median age of Indian population)
34 = ~14% (I guess I should have been concerned about this - age of whistleblower Chinese Dr. Li Wenliang who died a hero Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor)
37 = ~17% (median age of American citizens and roughly most other countries)
47 = ~27% (median age of Japanese citizens, very crowded there, ouch, sayonara)
48 = ~28% (my age... warranty has expired, DUCK!!!)
58 = ~38% (median age of American congress members probably still deadlocked by the time it hits them and claiming "fakenews! seasonal flu is a bigger concern!", also, probably most other political controllers/figures internationally of other governments are in this age range)
65 = ~45% (median age of American 'babyboomer' generation everyone is concerned about not being able to pay their social security benefits...)

Huge international and domestic socio-economic-political impact, cannot be understated or really predicted in any way.

Also, think about what happens to the military chain of command under this scenario? In all governments, not just your own. They will certainly be called in and necessary. Here are some average ages for upper ranks of UK, for example. Food for thought.

Rank Average age
Lieutenant colonel 45
Colonel 49
Brigadier 50
Major general 52

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

Of course, to be killed, one must be exposed.

If I behave intelligently and stay a few steps ahead, I (believe) I can still function and reduce my exposure chance to 10% or less, instead of the global 60% chance for exposure in the coming year that was mentioned if this progresses uncontained.

10% chance of exposure at 28% of mortality if exposed is a 97.2% chance of surviving the coming storm this year. Which is FINE with me; probably as good as I have any year, coronavirus or no coronavirus. It requires some calm thinking and planning, some preparations to be made which are well within my means, and are frankly (at this point in time) kind of amusing. I would encourage others to review their own expected risk level and 'decide their own level of involvement' as it were.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Gee... they might have to call off the election indefinitely.

Goonie · Feb 11, 2020

timothyu said:
Gee... they might have to call off the election indefinitely.

Don't give Donald ideas!

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

Goonie said:
Don't give Donald ideas!

Doh !

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

Goonie said:
Don't give Donald ideas!

Donald, I would point out, referencing my posts above, is 73.

I didn't bother to chart the likely fatality % that far.

And, I expect that you will find, that I was being conservative.

pleinmont · Feb 11, 2020

This new strain of the coronavirus has been officially named Covid-19 by the WHO.

Petros2015 · Feb 11, 2020

pleinmont said:
This new strain of the coronavirus has been officially named Covid-19 by the WHO.

Oh thank goodness. There, problem solved.

timothyu · Feb 11, 2020

pleinmont said:
This new strain of the coronavirus has been officially named Covid-19 by the WHO.

At last. Some headway in fighting this thing.

Goonie · Feb 11, 2020

pleinmont said:
This new strain of the coronavirus has been officially named Covid-19 by the WHO.

I was hoping for 'Captain Trips'

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