Wuhan coronavirus (global health emergency)

grasping the after wind

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Guess it will take another plague of epic proportions like the middle ages or 1917 to wake people up.

I';m still asleep I guess. What exactly am I supposed to be waking up to understand?
 
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timothyu

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I';m still asleep I guess. What exactly am I supposed to be waking up to understand?
That the powers that be shouldn't play games to protect images or economics but instead act quickly to isolate the problems in a globalized community. Even viruses are smarter than man and prove our wish to control things always fails because our motives are protecting the wrong things. God has been trying to tell us that from the beginning.
 
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Yusuphhai

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实时更新|新型冠状病毒肺炎全国疫情地图The Map of the Disease

确诊Confirmed, 疑似Suspected, 死亡Death,治愈Healedhttps://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121
美国U.S.A(update:11 confirmed)https://news.sina.cn/zt_d/yiqing0121
 
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Petros2015

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Best information central I have seen, you can download the historical data too - time series in lower right, so it has a good amount of history.

If you think this is going to be contained, I would encourage everyone to think real, real hard about human nature and geopolitics... if you do, I think you'll realize the conclusion will be inevitable.

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tall73

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I was concerned about reports of the need for quick-built hospitals, the drones spraying chemicals, enforced quarantines with bars, the repressing of reports, because it suggested that China may know this is far worse than they are letting on. But this article may be the most disturbing yet.

Tencent may have accidentally leaked real dat... | Taiwan News


On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.


The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.


Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

If those numbers are real that means survival rates are minuscule. On the other hand, if that were the case we would expect more deaths outside of China. So likely their interpretation of this as the real, but repressed, numbers is unlikely, as we would see the same type of rate in these other countries. Unless it is a case where they are just overwhelmed and cannot provide even the most basic treatment.
 
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tall73

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tall73

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Hm . Some may have followed the controversy with the apparently non-peer reviewed study in India that suggested the virus was engineered, including insertions from HIV.

This article discusses another unusual claim, that China's military news network claimed the US constructed it.

Chinese military news agency discloses 2019-n... | Taiwan News

Guo called Xilu the Chinese version of the Pentagon's news network and a mouthpiece for China's People's Liberation Army. It published an article on Jan. 21 denying a statement by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) regarding animal-to-human transmissions, instead claiming that "four critical spike proteins" have been replaced in a SARS coronavirus to create a bioweapon-level virus capable of attacking certain groups of people.


However, renowned Taiwanese-American professor Ching Lin on Saturday (Feb. 1) refuted the "bioweapon" allegation, saying the aforementioned "four critical spike proteins" are actually four amino acids and that their replacement is not as "critical" as the Xilu had claimed.

Lin also cast doubt on the credibility of the paper (Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag) being cited in the conspiracy theories. He first suggested that the platform bioRxiv, on which the paper was published, is untrustworthy as most of the literature it posts does not undergo peer review.
 
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essentialsaltes

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The tencent stuff doesn't pass the smell test for me. Why would the authorities give media the 'real' numbers and then tell them to report the 'for public consumption' numbers? I don't mean to suggest that China is telling the complete truth, but this 'story' doesn't make sense.
 
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The tencent stuff doesn't pass the smell test for me. Why would the authorities give media the 'real' numbers and then tell them to report the 'for public consumption' numbers? I don't mean to suggest that China is telling the complete truth, but this 'story' doesn't make sense.

I agree it doesn't make sense that the government would give them the real numbers (unless by mistake), and it doesn't make sense with the survival rate outside of China. The article notes that it could mean someone in the company is trying to leak the actual data apart from government wishes. But if that were the case you would think they would catch on to that pretty quickly and it wouldn't happen three times.

On the other hand, the news story offers this as just one explanation of what apparently happened multiple times with the numbers changing. They include screenshots of the data sets, though I don't read the language to verify.

Bias checkers rate the reporting source as pretty middle of the road for bias, and factual for reporting. Which certainly doesn't mean their theory as to the possible explanation is true. But it does suggest that this discrepancy in numbers likely happened, and in a way that increased each time. Which is strange whatever might account for it.
 
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Petros2015

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I thought I would repost this. My request was granted. Perhaps the suggestion at the end would be useful for others to communicate to their HR departments, and it could actually do some pre-emptive good. I have removed company specific information here.

=======================================

Hi xxxxxxx,

As my manager, I wish to negotiate a temporary telecommuting agreement with you as part of my employment. Although I am very happy to contribute to company culture during normal circumstances and times by being present in the office building and enjoying the company of my coworkers, and we may wish for normal circumstances, the present times are not normal.

A coronavirus similar to SARS is currently circulating, mostly in Asia, but with some detected confirmations in the USA and other countries. This virus has transmissibility approaching or exceeding Spanish Influenza and is considerably more lethal, with lethality increasing with the age of the person infected if it is following the SARS model. As I have mentioned before, although it is being cited as 2-3% fatality rate, it is in fact much higher. 13% of all confirmed cases are in critical condition, and yesterday the doctor who blew the whistle on it died of it.

Doctor who blew whistle over coronavirus has died, hospital says

What are the odds of that? Considerably higher than 2-3% I expect. He was 34. If it was SARS his odds of dying would have been roughly 9%. I'm not certain if this is the same as or worse than SARS yet, but it does seem to be at least as bad.

I have already stated that because coronaviruses like this one weigh their fatalities with increasing severity as the age of a person increases, I feel my own personal vulnerability is approximately 25% IF I was exposed to it. But, a virus is only dangerous if exposure occurs. If I reduce my exposure chance to 10% or less, then my vulnerability is reduced to .25 x .1 = 2.5% 2.5% is acceptable to me, whereas 25% is not.

Unfortunately, I can not determine my exposure risk at the office at this time. I believe that it is very low. However, this virus has a mean time between infection and symptoms showing of about 6 days, meaning it could take as long as 2 weeks. I have also seen several articles stating that it may be contagious prior to showing symptoms, which is especially dangerous if these are confirmed.

Based on this:
  • I suspect that if it were to enter the office, we would not know until transmission to one or more office mates had already occurred
  • I suspect that if it were to enter the office, the likely vector would be through exposure of one or more office mates who became exposed on the xxxx metro or other form of public transportation.
  • We have office mates who use the xxxx metro and other forms of public transportation every day to get to work
  • I do not know if transmission is occurring on the xxxx metro, no one does at this time. And when we know, it will probably be on the order of 7 days after it has started and another 7 days until confirmed.
  • If it has not started already, it probably will be soon. xxxx metro is a hub of activity, domestic and foreign. It could easily enter and take root naturally there.
  • (other reason removed from this re-post)
To put it another way, although I realize most confirmed cases are abroad and the CDC is doing everything they can, (redacted, related to other reason), when the excrement hits the fan in our area, people won't know. It may have already hit the fan, and we don't know. And once it starts hitting the fan, it will keep hitting the fan at a growing rate for probably about 7-14 days. Only then will people begin to smell the excrement.

But at that point it will be everywhere, and possibly in our office.

So in light of this, and my personal estimated vulnerability to it, I am requesting permission to optionally telecommute for a portion of my workweek, keeping my current shift. When I first contacted you regarding this on Feb 4, the number of confirmed cases was 20000. As it rises and hits 40000, I would like the option to exercise 1 day of telecommuting (Monday), 60000 (Tuesday), 80000 (Wednesday), 100000 (Thursday) and 120000+ (Friday). As the number of cases resolve and drop, and the threat subsides, I will cease using my option to telecommute.

I am open to negotiation as necessary and being at the office on an as-needed basis (within reason to let maintenance into the server room for example), or to make other concessions, but this is the agreement I would like to negotiate with you personally. Of course, I will be as flexible as I possibly can within the bounds of reason.

On a business level, telecommuting policy was recently re-stated along these lines:

(removed direct quote of company policy on telecommuting from this re-post, but essentially they had decided to start discouraging it as of this Feb lol. Extremely bad timing!)

This is a fine policy that I could and would have supported during normal times; however a pandemic with a contagion and mortality rate exceeding Spanish Influenza and approaching that of a bioweapon at loose in the wild qualifies as extenuating circumstances.

With a pandemic of this sort, it is important to stay a few steps ahead, and not behind. I would suggest to senior management that they may keep this policy for the time being, but amend it (slightly) as follows:

"Recognizing the potential threat of the new coronavirus circulating globally and acknowledging CDC guidance that the threat is proportional to exposure - we will support and encourage telecommuting for employees that use crowded public transportation such as metro and rail daily to get to work to reduce their risk of exposure"

This has a few advantages -

1) Employees most likely to be suddenly exposed will not be
2) Other employees most likely to be suddenly exposed by them will not be
3) As an Organization, we will be a few steps ahead of the problem, instead of a few steps behind it.
4) It's a calm, safe and rational approach to conducting business at the initial stages of what it about to be a pandemic, which no one is used to doing, but I think it's going to be important to get very good at doing it

So this is my recommendation and my request, I hope you consider both of them

Thank you for your time
 
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If I might ask a question not to get people into any more fear BUT what about material things as in all the shipment of products that come from China. Can these viruses actually be on something physical you buy? Is that of any concern or is it just person to person contact? How real if any is that concern?
 
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Petros2015

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Are stocks rising?

I am considering shorting International airlines (short = betting against them) ...

Good news, the growth rate has backed off a bit, we are seeing drop in cases from the quarantines that started going into place 1/23. I was expecting they would start to put the breaks on things with some lag time since symptoms don't show for 7-14 days. FINALLY that has started to happen. Daily growth of cases by 20-15% compounded growth of confirmed cases is terrifying, it has started to slip from 15% to 11% and lower. 8% yesterday from 37558 to 40573

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200209-sitrep-20-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6f80d1b9_4

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We may see it spring up again out of control in other areas or countries. China is actually VERY good at controlling populace and implementing quarantines when they want to be and they have taken this seriously. I'm not sure how the governments in other countries will do.

I think we REALLY dodged a bullet here, thanks to this guy who risked his life to get the word out and later died of the virus. Probably single handedly saved more lives that we will ever comprehend.

Wuhan hospital announces death of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang - CNN

- but it's important to remember, the bullet that we dodged was from a machine gun clip, and the shooter is still active.
 
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Goonie

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I am considering shorting International airlines (short = betting against them) ...

Good news, the growth rate has backed off a bit, we are seeing drop in cases from the quarantines that started going into place 1/23. I was expecting they would start to put the breaks on things with some lag time since symptoms don't show for 7-14 days. FINALLY that has started to happen. Daily growth of cases by 20-15% compounded growth of confirmed cases is terrifying, it has started to slip from 15% to 11% and lower. 8% yesterday from 37558 to 40573

https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...20200209-sitrep-20-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=6f80d1b9_4

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View attachment 271774

We may see it spring up again out of control in other areas or countries. China is actually VERY good at controlling populace and implementing quarantines when they want to be and they have taken this seriously. I'm not sure how the governments in other countries will do.

I think we REALLY dodged a bullet here, thanks to this guy who risked his life to get the word out and later died of the virus. Probably single handedly saved more lives that we will ever comprehend.

Wuhan hospital announces death of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang - CNN

- but it's important to remember, the bullet that we dodged was from a machine gun clip, and the shooter is still active.
According to research by the Imperial College London the mortality/fatality rate of coronavirus likely to be 18%
 
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