Climate models have been impressively accurate for decades, study finds

essentialsaltes

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Even the rather primitive climate computer models of the 1970s, 80s and 90s were impressively accurate, lending extra credibility to the much more advanced climate models of today. That's the conclusion of a paper released Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters, a peer-reviewed science journal.

The study comes as climate skeptics continue to cast doubt on the reliability of climate models and question the validity of human-caused climate change overall.

"We often hear that 'models always overestimate warming' from those skeptical of climate change," says the paper's lead author Zeke Hausfather. But Hausfather says that's simply not true. "Climate models have by and large gotten things right. They haven't overestimated warming, but at the same time the warming we experienced isn't worse than we thought, it is what we thought it would be," he said.

The team found that 10 of the 17 climate model projections showed results consistent with recent real world observations. Of the remaining seven model projections, four projected more warming than observed, while three projected less warming than observed.

Abstract
 

DennisTate

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But...... I like the alternative theory on stabilization of the climate put forward by a New Mexico biologist and coach that fits with Isaiah 35
a lot better than the idea of a carbon tax.

Isaiah 35

The wilderness and the dry land shall be glad; and the desert shall rejoice, and blossom as the rose.

2 It shall blossom abundantly, and rejoice even with joy and singing; the glory of Lebanon shall be given unto it, the excellency of Carmel and Sharon: they shall see the glory of Jehovah, the excellency of our God.
.....
Then shall the lame man leap as a hart, and the tongue of the dumb shall sing; for in the wilderness shall waters break out, and streams in the desert.

7 And the glowing sand shall become a pool, and the thirsty ground springs of water: in the habitation of jackals, where they lay, shall be grass with reeds and rushes.




“So how is our problem of continental drying causing global warming? It all has to do with vegetation and sunlight. When sun light hits a plant, it causes a process which we call photosynthesis where the energy from the sun light creates oxygen for us to breath, water for us to drink, and is stored as sugar for plants and animals to use. When the same sun light hits the soil, all of its energy turns into heat and is radiated back into the atmosphere, carried away by running surface water such as rain fall, is carried away to other areas by our winds, and diffuses down into the soil towards the earth's crust. All of this warms our planet increasing its average temperature.”

“Therefore, the less vegetation you have on the planet, the more sunlight is being turned into heat and the warmer the planet becomes. This is very critical because warmer and dryer winds dry out other land areas faster decreasing the vegetation on those land areas. Less humidity in the air also reflects less sun light back out into space so that more sun light strikes the earth and more heat is generated….”

“The truth is that you can do more to decrease global warming by just reducing the average temperature for the Sahara Desert by one or two degrees than if we humans completely quit using fossil fuels and returned to the cave….”

“So, how would you start working to resolve this problem? Easy, cool the deserts and get some vegetation growing on them as soon as possible. But the method is much more complex than that. You have to use the prevailing trade winds in relation to the deserts to get the best results as quickly as possible and it will be extremely expensive….”

“Then we build desalination plants along the coast near these water sheds and pipe water to the tops or ridges of the water sheds…”

“This will do a number of things. First, it will increase the moisture in the desert soil so that it will develop water tables and water will begin to run in the streams. This water will increase the amount of vegetation in the area and decrease the amount of heat being generated by sun light cooling the watered area and all areas down wind of the watered area. As more available water evaporates, it will cool the air and reflect more sun light back out into space cooling the area even more. Cooler and more humid air will have less of a heating effect on areas down wind and will reflect more sun light back into space in those areas cooling areas we won't be watering yet. Cooler and more humid air will also have less of a warming effect on our seas and oceans.”

“Rain water running off of cooler soil will decrease the heating effect on our oceans and our planet crusts which will decrease catastrophic storm activities for other areas and seismic activity for the entire planet. Also, returning more ocean water to the surface and aquifers of our continents will lower the sea levels providing more usable land for us to farm and build on.”

“With cooler desert areas and increasing vegetation, less water will evaporate from our deserts increasing the amount of surface water even more and increasing the amount of vegetation and animal life by huge amounts because deserts currently take up more than 20% of our land surface. Populations will be able to spread out and there will be less competition for existing land areas.”

“This strategy has to be done in steps with the first step being to begin slowing the rate at which our global warming is increasing. We need to focus on that until we have brought it to a point to where the temperature is not increasing any more and is reasonably stable. While we are doing this, we need to come to a global consensus of just how cool we want to cool our planet down to. If we cool it down too much, we will begin to have devastatingly harsh winters in large populated areas and even cause an ice age to set in.”

“Then we begin cooling the planet down to a point which will be most beneficial for all countries or the planet as a whole. We need to gradually bring the temperature down because there may be a lag effect in which the planet will continue cooling after we stop increasing our efforts to cool it off more. We may even want to stop cooling the planet once or twice before we reach our targeted temperatures to see if there is a lag effect…”


“We need to start working on this as soon as possible because, if the planet reaches a point to where it is warming faster than our technology can possibly stop or reverse this warming trend, then our planet is lost and all life will cease to exist on this planet within a relatively short period of time. We will need to start with the largest and hottest deserts because cooling them will have the greatest benefit in the least time. (Global Warming II by biologist Carl Cantrell).”

Every cubic meter of ocean water that is desalinated and added to the water table of a nation with lots of deserts will make life safer in New Orleans, Miami, New York, Venice, Bangladesh and the Maldive Islands.
Cheap Water from the World’s Largest Modern Seawater Desalination Plant
 
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Occams Barber

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Even the rather primitive climate computer models of the 1970s, 80s and 90s were impressively accurate, lending extra credibility to the much more advanced climate models of today. That's the conclusion of a paper released Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters, a peer-reviewed science journal.

The study comes as climate skeptics continue to cast doubt on the reliability of climate models and question the validity of human-caused climate change overall.

"We often hear that 'models always overestimate warming' from those skeptical of climate change," says the paper's lead author Zeke Hausfather. But Hausfather says that's simply not true. "Climate models have by and large gotten things right. They haven't overestimated warming, but at the same time the warming we experienced isn't worse than we thought, it is what we thought it would be," he said.

The team found that 10 of the 17 climate model projections showed results consistent with recent real world observations. Of the remaining seven model projections, four projected more warming than observed, while three projected less warming than observed.

Abstract


This paper is important.

Verifying that climate change models have been accurate in the past means that we can now have a significant level of confidence in their ability to predict what will happen in the future.

It also verifies that the concept of anthropogenic climate change is real.
OB
 
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JackRT

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DennisTate

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And what will we do with the mountains of salt that are extracted?

Ocean water is a great source of trace minerals and there are theories out there that missing trace minerals is one of the big reasons why we are relatively unhealthy in comparison to what is possible.

I live in Canada..... we put salt on our roads during the winter to melt the ice and snow.
 
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JackRT

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I live in Canada..... we put salt on our roads during the winter to melt the ice and snow.

And that salt washes off into our streams and lakes especially in the spring melt. It is affecting some fish spawning runs. Some streams for a short time are actually saltier than sea water.
 
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DennisTate

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And that salt washes off into our streams and lakes especially in the spring melt. It is affecting some fish spawning runs. Some streams for a short time are actually saltier than sea water.

I agree... but the salt may be much safer than other methods of deicing the roads and most of our fish species life in salt water for part of the year anyway.
 
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Jimmy D

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upload_2019-12-9_19-20-23.gif
 
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Bungle_Bear

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Huh? The Earth should be inhabited = the environment should be destroyed :scratch: Beautiful trees are there to be seen..... and cut down and the environment spoiled so a new tree cannot grow?

Genesis 2:15 And the Lord God took the man, and put him into the garden of Eden to dress it and to keep it.

Shouty man does not impress.
 
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JackRT

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Huh? The Earth should be inhabited = the environment should be destroyed :scratch: Beautiful trees are there to be seen..... and cut down and the environment spoiled so a new tree cannot grow?

Genesis 2:15 And the Lord God took the man, and put him into the garden of Eden to dress it and to keep it.

Shouty man does not impress.

Big Yellow Taxi

Joni Mitchel

They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
With a pink hotel, a boutique
And a swinging hot spot
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got til its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot

They took all the trees
And put 'em in a tree museum
And they charged the people
A dollar and a half to seem 'em
No no no
Don't it always seem to go,
That you don't know what you've got
Til its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot

Hey farmer farmer
Put away the DDT
I don't care about spots on my apples
Leave me the birds and the bees
Please!
Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got
Til its gone
They paved paradise
And put up a parking lot
Hey, now they paved paradise
To put up a parking lot

Why not?
 
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ViaCrucis

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If you look up to extremist nutcases like this Steven Anderson then I seriously question your state of mind.

That anyone takes Steven Anderson seriously is something I find fairly terrifying.

-CryptoLutheran
 
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essentialsaltes

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pitabread

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If you look up to extremist nutcases like this Steven Anderson then I seriously question your state of mind.

I had no idea who this guy is and this is the first thing I found Googling him:

Steven Lee Anderson (born July 24, 1981) is an American Independent Baptist pastor and founder of the nonprofit Faithful Word Baptist Church in Tempe, Arizona. The church is currently listed as a hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) because of Anderson's radical stands, including the belief that homosexuals should receive the death penalty.[2] In Anderson's opinion, all homosexuals are pedophiles and will have sex with anything.[3] In short, he is the new Fred Phelps.
Steven Anderson - RationalWiki
 
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