2020 Electoral Map With One Year To Go

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

This shows the Republicans with 248 electoral votes with 270 needed to win. This is without
NH
AZ
MN
WI
MI
PA
===
I will state the obvious. The Democrats are capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating Warren or Sanders and having one these far left north easterners being forced to win in the Midwest. Healthcare would become a winning issue for Republicans (ridiculous given what Trump has done). Campaigning for more government control, taking away our insurance plans, and taxing the rich (over and over again) just won't won't work. This is in addition to both candidates having plans that will cost in the tens of TRILLIONS. Even Warren says that the forecasts are irrelevant (some say that her plans are light by ten trillion or more); no one can know she says.
=======
The alternative is to have a moderate ticket camp out in the MidWest. The chances of Biden or Buddigieg or Klobuchar losing one of the four Midwest swing states (listed above) is very small indeed.

super animator · Nov 6, 2019

mark46 said:
The Democrats are capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating Warren or Sanders

They are not Neo-liberals like Hillary is.

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

What is a "neoliberal"? I've followed politics in the US for 60 years and haven't a clue what you are talking about.

With regard to Clinton, she was a flawed candidate. This had nothing to do with her center-left liberal policies.

super animator said:
They are not Neo-liberals like Hillary is.

A Realist · Nov 6, 2019

A whole heck of a lot can happen in one year.

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

Sure; but this a political forum, a place to speculate.

For example, at this point (very early), I think that the Democratic nomination is down to 6: Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, Biden, Klobuchar and Harris. That is a reasonable number to be down to at this point.

Of course, one of the dark horses could still emerge. They still have almost 3 months to campaign before Iowa votes.

A Realist said:
A whole heck of a lot can happen in one year.

Silverback · Nov 6, 2019

A Realist said:
A whole heck of a lot can happen in one year.

If you look at what's out there, the only Democrat that has a chance, IMHO, of defeating the ?President is Buddigieg, Biden, and Sanders are to old, and it's showing, neither would be effective as President...even if they survived their term in office. I like Klobuchar the most, but she has not really caught on.

The Democrats will however, nominate either Biden, or, Warren. The President will destroy Biden at the Presidential Debates, and I think Warren is to far left.

Hillary may try to jump in, if it looks like she could have a chance, but it will be as an independent, which will split the Democrats and throw the election to Trump.

The President will be reelected, again by the electoral college. If that is the case, I would expect some degree of civil unrest.

It really depends on the economy, if people have jobs, can pay their bills, take a vacation, and have affordable healthcare through their employer, then barring a stiff economic downturn, the President will be reelected...it's hard to fight against a 3.5% unemployment rate, when all you can offer is a tax increase on the 50% of households who already carry 100% of the tax burden, and tax increases, and additional layers of regulation on employers, that will adversely affect their ability to be profitable, and competitive.

Thankfully, Beto O'Rouke is out of the race, but he has tarred every Democrat with the anti gun, anti faith brush, and it will stick. Sanders aligning himself the likes of AOC will hurt him as well.

If people are doing well, or, even OK, they will not toss it away for an experiment in Socialism that ultimately will, in the end, fail.

Additionally, the crying of the millennial generation, over things like paying their just education debts, and, wanting everything free (although nothing is free) healthcare, childcare, maternity leave, senior care, open borders, slave reparations, green new deal, I could go on, is starting to ware thin on most people's nerves, and will also hurt the Democrats.

The Senate will not convict the President, he will Finnish his term, and win re-election.

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

Biden-Klobuchar would beat Trump-Pence. Trump will not win the Midwest because his debate performances. Buttigieg-Klobuchar would have a good chance as well as Klobuchar-Buttigieg. The election wouldn't be that complicated with a Democratic moderate running. The election would be all about Trump, passing the torch to a new generation, and winning back the MidWest.

You talk about too old, as if Trump is a youngster.

With regard to the economy, I agree that this is Trump's strongest issue, especially if Warren or Sanders is nominated. The bottom line is that all the campaigning about socialism is irrelevant against a moderate candidate.

Silverback said:
If you look at what's out there, the only Democrat that has a chance, IMHO, of defeating the ?President is Buddigieg, Biden, and Sanders are to old, and it's showing, neither would be effective as President...even if they survived their term in office. I like Klobuchar the most, but she has not really caught on.

The Democrats will however, nominate either Biden, or, Warren. The President will destroy Biden at the Presidential Debates, and I think Warren is to far left.

Hillary may try to jump in, if it looks like she could have a chance, but it will be as an independent, which will split the Democrats and throw the election to Trump.

The President will be reelected, again by the electoral college. If that is the case, I would expect some degree of civil unrest.

It really depends on the economy, if people have jobs, can pay their bills, take a vacation, and have affordable healthcare through their employer, then barring a stiff economic downturn, the President will be reelected...it's hard to fight against a 3.5% unemployment rate, when all you can offer is a tax increase on the 50% of households who already carry 100% of the tax burden, and tax increases, and additional layers of regulation on employers, that will adversely affect their ability to be profitable, and competitive.

Thankfully, Beto O'Rouke is out of the race, but he has tarred every Democrat with the anti gun, anti faith brush, and it will stick. Sanders aligning himself the likes of AOC will hurt him as well.

If people are doing well, or, even OK, they will not toss it away for an experiment in Socialism that ultimately will, in the end, fail.

Additionally, the crying of the millennial generation, over things like paying their just education debts, and, wanting everything free (although nothing is free) healthcare, childcare, maternity leave, senior care, open borders, slave reparations, green new deal, I could go on, is starting to ware thin on most people's nerves, and will also hurt the Democrats.

The Senate will not convict the President, he will Finnish his term, and win re-election.

iluvatar5150 · Nov 6, 2019

mark46 said:
2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

This shows the Republicans with 248 electoral votes with 270 needed to win.

The only prediction on there that gives 248 to the Republicans is the "Sabatos Crystal Ball". The rest give 248 (or more) to the Democrats.

mark46 said:
What is a "neoliberal"? I've followed politics in the US for 60 years and haven't a clue what you are talking about.

Welcome to that debate. The answer to your question depends on who you ask and when they were answering it. It can mean anything from Reagan/Thacher/Hayek capitalism-idolizing conservatives to left-center technocrats like Obama.

Silverback · Nov 6, 2019

mark46 said:
Biden-Klobuchar would beat Trump-Pence. Trump will not win the Midwest because his debate performances. Buttigieg-Klobuchar would have a good chance as well as Klobuchar-Buttigieg. The election wouldn't be that complicated with a Democratic moderate running. The election would be all about Trump, passing the torch to a new generation, and winning back the MidWest.

You talk about too old, as if Trump is a youngster.

With regard to the economy, I agree that this is Trump's strongest issue, especially if Warren or Sanders is nominated. The bottom line is that all the campaigning about socialism is irrelevant against a moderate candidate.

Let's hope a moderate wins!

Nithavela · Nov 6, 2019

mark46 said:
2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map

This shows the Republicans with 248 electoral votes with 270 needed to win. This is without
NH
AZ
MN
WI
MI
PA
===
I will state the obvious. The Democrats are capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by nominating Warren or Sanders and having one these far left north easterners being forced to win in the Midwest. Healthcare would become a winning issue for Republicans (ridiculous given what Trump has done). Campaigning for more government control, taking away our insurance plans, and taxing the rich (over and over again) just won't won't work. This is in addition to both candidates having plans that will cost in the tens of TRILLIONS. Even Warren says that the forecasts are irrelevant (some say that her plans are light by ten trillion or more); no one can know she says.
=======
The alternative is to have a moderate ticket camp out in the MidWest. The chances of Biden or Buddigieg or Klobuchar losing one of the four Midwest swing states (listed above) is very small indeed.

They're gonna send Biden like they sent Hillary. Trump 2020.

GodLovesCats · Nov 6, 2019

The only way I ever see this topic reported in news articles is who won each state during the last election or the previous X number of presidential elections. For example, because Utah is always a deep red state, the safe expectation is Donald Trump will win it (along with Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi). New York is unlikely to support Trump. So is California. But what about states that alternated between red and blue in the last 8-16 years?

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

States are usually labelled based on past experience
safe Democratic
solid Democratic
leans Democratic
competitive or tossup
leans Republican
solid Republican
safe Republican

States that have not established a recent pattern are tossups.

ChristianForCats said:
The only way I ever see this topic reported in news articles is who won each state during the last election or the previous X number of presidential elections. For example, because Utah is always a deep red state, the safe expectation is Donald Trump will win it (along with Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi). New York is unlikely to support Trump. So is California. But what about states that alternated between red and blue in the last 8-16 years?

GodLovesCats · Nov 6, 2019

What you call tossups are officially known as "swing states" in news articles. We always see Florida in one of them even though three consecutive governors are Republican. Trump won Florida in 2016.

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

yup.

In my own projections (see initial post in this thread), I have FL and Ohio as Republican, where they've been for awhile.

ChristianForCats said:
What you call tossups are officially known as "swing states" in news articles. We always see Florida in one of them even though three consecutive governors are Republican.

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

Consensus Forecast Electoral Map

This the consensus forecast. I give FL and NC to Trump. I also don't consider MI or MN a lock for Democrats.

iluvatar5150 said:
The only prediction on there that gives 248 to the Republicans is the "Sabatos Crystal Ball". The rest give 248 (or more) to the Democrats.

Welcome to that debate. The answer to your question depends on who you ask and when they were answering it. It can mean anything from Reagan/Thacher/Hayek capitalism-idolizing conservatives to left-center technocrats like Obama.

GodLovesCats · Nov 6, 2019

Yeah, John Kasich was Ohio's governnor for eight years, so I was not surprised Trump won it. Bush won it both times too. But they never stop calling Ohio a swing state.

GodLovesCats · Nov 6, 2019

Michigan was the state that sealed it for Trump, but Obama won it both times. So it could be a tossup.

super animator · Nov 6, 2019

mark46 said:
What is a "neoliberal"?

A follower of Neoliberalism.
Neoliberalism - Wikipedia

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

Just as the original meaning of "liberal" and "conservative", I doubt very much that this is what folks mean by the term. I suspect that the word means whatever the speaker/writer wants it mean.

I suspect that folks mean "fake liberal", with connotation they are the true "liberals" by which they mean something different than what this word has meant since the early 50's.

super animator said:
A follower of Neoliberalism.
Neoliberalism - Wikipedia

mark46 · Nov 6, 2019

Trump won in the rust belt by winning PA, MI and WI; MN was close. I would consider all of them toss-ups (pretty much the only toss-ups in a close election)
.
These states will be the focus of the Republicans, and also the Democrats (should they choose to actually attempt to win).

ChristianForCats said:
Michigan was the state that sealed it for Trump, but Obama won it both times. So it could be a tossup.

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