I do not necessarily agree. I definitely do not think you are way off base, my reasoning is a lot of people that have been traditionally Dem are voting Trump. Im literally asking who these swing voters are?
The loss of traditanly dem votes is going to have an impact.
But again, look at the definity, particularly, "liberal Republicans, and conservative Democrats are considered "swing voters."" So, yes, a particular group of conservative Democrats voted for Trump in 2016 -- largely the typical union voter who is a middle aged white male.
And the question exists of who they'll vote for in 2020. Some analysts claim that they voted for Trump because of "Hillary" -- the whole "slimy-ness" some felt about her, the fact she didn't court union voters with no real campaign stops in the Midwest, etc.
I suppose you could also say that the Bernie voters were, in a sense, "swing voters" last time, since many allegedly stayed home. And if they vote in greater numbers than last election, that could be real trouble for Trump (where he won key states by very narrow margins.
There are the liberal Republicans -- though that may not be a good gauge for 2020 as my thought is liberal Republicans are likely quite happy with Trump. If there are defections, my thought is it would be members from groups like the Log Cabin Republicans (though they already have endorsed Trump), seeing how Trump broke pretty much all the promises he made to the LGBT community -- or other groups that feel that Trump has not served them (such as farmers).
In some ways, I feel the 2020 election may be a "backwards" 2016 election -- with Trump playing the role of Hillary. Trump will get the "party loyalists," or in this case maybe they should be called "Trump loyalists." Of course, Democrats will likely be more motivated this time and come out and vote heavily -- barring DNC screw ups like 2016. And then I think you'll have a large number of people that try to decide to "hold their nose" and vote for Trump, vote for the Democrat, or vote third party. And, of course, some will depend on who the Democrats nominate.
What is interesting about Trump is that his polling has been fairly constant, unlike other Presidents, who see much greater variability in their polling numbers. It appears Trump has a rather firm 40+% support, and a roughly equal number that have consistently disliked him -- the country is very polarized. So the swing would likely be that last 10-15% that at times has thought he's done a decent job and at times not liked him, and how they vote in each state. My personal guess is Trump once again gets close to 50% of the vote, though slightly less, and that the results will depend on if Trump can again take Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
