THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS

pitabread · May 19, 2019

Figured this deserved its own thread, since I've noticed a number of posters are still clinging to myth that scientific consensus from the 1970's was in favor of global cooling and predicting a coming ice age.

There was no scientific consensus in the 1970s that the Earth was headed into an imminent ice age. Indeed, the possibility of anthropogenic warming dominated the peer-reviewed literature even then.

FIG. I. The number of papers classified as predicting, implying, or providing supporting evidence for future global cooling, warming, and neutral categories as defined in the text and listed in Table I. During the period from 1965 through 1979, our literature survey found 7 cooling, 20 neutral, and 44 warming papers

Source: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1

AV1611VET · May 19, 2019

pitabread said:
"... our literature survey found 7 cooling, 20 neutral, and 44 warming papers"

Conflicting evidence?

pitabread · May 19, 2019

AV1611VET said:
Conflicting evidence?

*sigh*

Speedwell · May 19, 2019

AV1611VET said:
Conflicting evidence?

No conflict at all. The assertion that there was overwhelming scientific consensus for global cooling in the 70s is false. The majority of scientists did not think that there would be global cooling.

AV1611VET · May 19, 2019

Speedwell said:
The majority of scientists did not think that there would be global cooling.

What made some scientists hold out?

crossnote · May 19, 2019

If memory serves me right, there was also predictions of shortages galore in the 1970's.

AV1611VET · May 19, 2019

crossnote said:
If memory serves me right, there was also predictions of shortages galore in the 1970's.

If everything happened that scientists predicted was going to happen, we wouldn't be here.

I don't know how many different ways we were supposed to die.

Strathos · May 19, 2019

AV1611VET said:
If everything happened that scientists predicted was going to happen, we wouldn't be here.

I don't know how many different ways we were supposed to die.

A lot of people have died. We're just lucky to not be among them.

USincognito · May 19, 2019

crossnote said:
If memory serves me right, there was also predictions of shortages galore in the 1970's.

Some of those were based on actual information at the time, specifically oil shortages. Some of them were based on Malthusian predictions about population growth.

None of those things change the fact that even when an impending ice age was a pop culture trope, the actual science was saying we were warming.

Ophiolite · May 20, 2019

crossnote said:
If memory serves me right, there was also predictions of shortages galore in the 1970's.

These were all based on one serious study conducted on behalf of the Club of Rome, titled Limits to Growth, that looked at the rate, processes and consequences of resource depletion. This was a rather simplistic analysis and work on a more complex simulation, by more than two orders of magnitude, was already underway when the first report was published. That one, according to wikipedia, "gave a more optimistic prognosis for the future of the environment, noting that many of the factors involved were within human control and therefore that environmental and economic catastrophe were preventable or avoidable".

We are still over-extended, we are still depleting our resources at an unacceptable rate, we are still grossly overpopulated. If we stick to a "business as usual" approach our grandchildren will curse us.

crossnote · May 20, 2019

Ophiolite said:
These were all based on one serious study conducted on behalf of the Club of Rome, titled Limits to Growth, that looked at the rate, processes and consequences of resource depletion. This was a rather simplistic analysis and work on a more complex simulation, by more than two orders of magnitude, was already underway when the first report was published. That one, according to wikipedia, "gave a more optimistic prognosis for the future of the environment, noting that many of the factors involved were within human control and therefore that environmental and economic catastrophe were preventable or avoidable".

We are still over-extended, we are still depleting our resources at an unacceptable rate, we are still grossly overpopulated. If we stick to a "business as usual" approach our grandchildren will curse us.

Sounded like a lot of hysteria to me back then, and still does.

Ophiolite · May 20, 2019

crossnote said:
Sounded like a lot of hysteria to me back then, and still does.

Well, if you consider diligent research intended to inform political decision making with a view to minimising future risks and ensuring a sustainable and equable growth, then it was definitely hysterical. However, such a classification is myopic. If you aren't concerned about the future of the planet, then the politic thing to do would be remain silent when that future is being discussed.

crossnote · May 20, 2019

Ophiolite said:
Well, if you consider diligent research intended to inform political decision making with a view to minimising future risks and ensuring a sustainable and equable growth, then it was definitely hysterical. However, such a classification is myopic. If you aren't concerned about the future of the planet, then the politic thing to do would be remain silent when that future is being discussed.

God holds the future of this planet. I'm more concerned about the future of lost souls as revealed in his Word...it is an eternal thang.

Ophiolite · May 20, 2019

crossnote said:
God holds the future of this planet. I'm more concerned about the future of lost souls as revealed in his Word...it is an eternal thang.

So, express your concern for souls and leave discussion of the planet's future to those of us who are concerned about it. That would be the polite thing to do.

crossnote · May 20, 2019

Ophiolite said:
So, express your concern for souls and leave discussion of the planet's future to those of us who are concerned about it. That would be the polite thing to do.

I've been trying to do that as of late but people keep responding, so I politely don't ignore them...(unlike so many of them that ignore God's warnings).

Ophiolite · May 20, 2019

crossnote said:
I've been trying to do that as of late but people keep responding, so I politely don't ignore them...(unlike so many of them that ignore God's warnings).

They can only respond if you initiate. I'll help you out here - if you respond to this post, I shall remain silent.

crossnote · May 20, 2019

Ophiolite said:
They can only respond if you initiate.

I didn't initiate this thread. I gave my 2 cents and got responded to. Ciao.

TBDude65 · May 20, 2019

It's also important to note that based on the paleoclimate record and the largely Milankovitch-driven climate variability we have experienced over the last ~400,000 years, we would predict that we should be entering an overall cooling phase, but we are not. Thus, why are we not cooling? And, in addition, why are we warming? The answer is simple, humans are altering the global carbon cycle in a way that is unparalleled with respect to what we consider to be "normal" or "background" climate change trends/rates.

pitabread · May 20, 2019

crossnote said:
I gave my 2 cents and got responded to.

Here, have a refund.

The IbanezerScrooge · May 22, 2019

crossnote said:
God holds the future of this planet. I'm more concerned about the future of lost souls as revealed in his Word...it is an eternal thang.

You're in the wrong forum then.

THE MYTH OF THE 1970s GLOBAL COOLING SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS

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