Border Patrol apprehensions along the Southwest border in FY 2018 were the
5th lowest level of illegal entry recorded in the past 46 years. (Apprehensions are a proxy for illegal entry.) While the 396,579
apprehensions in FY 2018 represented a 30% increase from FY 2017, that’s largely because the 303,916 apprehensions in FY 2017 were the
lowest number of apprehensions recorded along the Southwest border since 1972 – nearly a half century ago.
Digging deeper into the data, in the first three months of FY 2019, the number of apprehensions and inadmissible encounters at ports of entry was higher than during the first three months of FY 2018. However, the number of apprehensions and people deemed inadmissible at ports of entry the first three months of FY 2019 was actually
lower than during those same three months in FY 2017 (the year DHS referred to as the “lowest level…on record”). (See
here and
here for data.) Again, this indicates there is not a national crisis, but rather developments that should be monitored and addressed with reasonable measures (see below).
Even these monthly figures can miss sudden changes. “There have been signs that the migration surge has abruptly receded in recent days,” reports Nick Miroff of the
Washington Post in a January 9, 2019
article. “Border stations and shelters that were at crisis levels in late December experienced a sudden drop in the number of families arriving in the past week, according to lawmakers and charity groups.”
Here is the big picture: The most important overlooked immigration development is that illegal entry by individuals from Mexico has
plummeted by more than 90% since FY 2000, according to Border Patrol apprehensions data. That means large-scale illegal migration by Mexicans to the United States – the original public justification Donald Trump used for building a wall along the border – is simply over. Demographics and improved economic conditions in Mexico ended it.
