The Democratic Safe House

Shiloh Weasley said:

I don't want a debate and that's why I posted my questions in this specific thread. I simply want to discuss the questions I asked in a calm manner. I also have no intentions of insulting anyone.

Click to expand...

I think there's alot of hysteria about guns on both sides, and very different cultures in our country. Perhaps this cannot be easily resolved.

Some people associate owning a gun with security and personal independence and they aren't willing to listen to reasonable restrictions. My parents are members of the NRA and Pink Pistols and even the idea of banning bump stocks (which make it easier to spray a bunch of bullets) is reprehensible to them.

The gun ownership thing doesn't perfectly match up with the religious right, either . My uncle and my parents aren't religious, but they do own guns. And my parents are somewhat gay friendly so they work with Pink Pistols. But they still support Trump. I think they compartmentalize parts of their life, honestly, and look at the Republican party romantically and want to still pretend its the party of Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan. It's also ironic because some of the people they probably encounter in Pink Pistols are not Republicans or on the Right, and I wonder why they don't think about how Trump's rhetoric hurts sexual and gender minorities. As I said, they compartmentalize.

Dems at +7.2, and 5D-3R in the senate toss-up category. As long as there's no pro-Trump surprises between now and November, things are looking fairly good.

Kentonio said:

Dems at +7.2, and 5D-3R in the senate toss-up category. As long as there's no pro-Trump surprises between now and November, things are looking fairly good.

Click to expand...

Great, now you've jinxed it.

The key issue in the Senate is how many seats switch parties. Many moreof the toss-up states are Democratic. I believe the most likely scenario is for the Democrats to pick up one, and for the Republicans to pick up 2-3.

Kentonio said:

Dems at +7.2, and 5D-3R in the senate toss-up category. As long as there's no pro-Trump surprises between now and November, things are looking fairly good.

Click to expand...

mark46 said:

The key issue in the Senate is how many seats switch parties. Many moreof the toss-up states are Democratic. I believe the most likely scenario is for the Democrats to pick up one, and for the Republicans to pick up 2-3.

Click to expand...

I also think there is a very high chance of Republicans taking NJ, even though the state is traditionally pretty blue.

mark46 said:

The key issue in the Senate is how many seats switch parties. Many moreof the toss-up states are Democratic. I believe the most likely scenario is for the Democrats to pick up one, and for the Republicans to pick up 2-3.

Click to expand...

Depends how big the blue wave is though. 5v3 tossups isn’t ideal of course, but if there’s around a +10 Dem swing nationally then it might be enough to at least ensure they don’t lose any more seats, even if they can’t take the senate. I’m optimistic at least.

After last night's performance in Helsinki, can there be any doubt?

Trump is a disgrace to America.

https://babylonbee.com/news/facebook-updates-privacy-policy-simply-read-lol/

MENLO PARK, CA—Facebook has once again updated its privacy policy for its users, replacing the long and complex text spelling out all the ways the company can use your personal data with the term “LOL,” the tech behemoth confirmed Monday.

“We wanted to be more forthright with our users,” Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg told reporters....

“It’s short, sweet, and to the point,” he added.

Click to expand...

Might as well.

Kentonio said:

Depends how big the blue wave is though. 5v3 tossups isn’t ideal of course, but if there’s around a +10 Dem swing nationally then it might be enough to at least ensure they don’t lose any more seats, even if they can’t take the senate. I’m optimistic at least.

Click to expand...

There's been far too little polling. I think Democrats will pick up Arizona and Tennessee(this one seems to be on remarkably few people's radar, but Gov Bredesen is wildly popular in Tn).

I think Nevada is competitive and Democrats stand a good chance there.

+ 2.4 D

For losses, I think Heitkamp, McCaskil, and O'Donnley are all more likely to lose than win.

I think Bill Nelson and Rick Scott is a true toss-up.

And I think Tester will win, but I only favor him 2-1. He's had a history of narrow wins, but narrow wins never bring certainty.

+ 2.9 R

(Unquantifiable)

There is a small chance Manchin loses. He's +7 now, but if Trump decides to take serious and heated aim at him for a week or more in September or beyond, it may sink him into the toss-up range. He's running in a 2/3 Trump state, so he doesn't have a lot of margin for error.

I would agree that there is a small chance Menendez losses, but it's very small. He may only lead in polls by 1-2 points, but in the deep blue state like New Jersey, the vast majority of those "undecided" will vote Democratic. Republicans would have to nominate someone very good to stand much chance. I'd say this one is no more likely to flip than Ted Cruz's seat. A small potential but not very likely. Democrats ran a nobody against Cruz so it's not likely to be competitive. Assuming Republicans do the same in New Jersey it won't likely end in anything.

My scorecard right now is Dem -0.5 which considering the map is pretty good. If the generic Congressional ballot were R+2(like 2014), it would be a bloodbath.

Haramis said:

I would agree that there is a small chance Menendez losses, but it's very small. He may only lead in polls by 1-2 points, but in the deep blue state like New Jersey, the vast majority of those "undecided" will vote Democratic. Republicans would have to nominate someone very good to stand much chance. I'd say this one is no more likely to flip than Ted Cruz's seat. A small potential but not very likely. Democrats ran a nobody against Cruz so it's not likely to be competitive. Assuming Republicans do the same in New Jersey it won't likely end in anything.

Click to expand...

Normally I would agree, but Menendez just coming off corruption charges brought by an Obama appointed USA is going to hurt him. The Republicans are running a biotech CEO who has openly stated that he is pro marriage equality and pro-choice. It's going to be a toss up I think.

Arizona senate seat looking favourable for Dems. Likely matchup of Sinema vs McSally has Sinema up 48-44.

https://www.abc15.com/news/state/ab...ghtening-in-primary-general-election-matchups

I will be amazed if Beto O’Rourke manged to be beat ted cruz in the upcoming 2018 elections.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/democrat-beto-orourke-texas-senate-race.html

super animator said:

I will be amazed if Beto O’Rourke manged to be beat ted cruz in the upcoming 2018 elections.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/democrat-beto-orourke-texas-senate-race.html

Click to expand...

It would be crazy, but it's within the realms of possibility. This could be one of those times when Trump's savage attacks on an enemy come back to haunt him if his base don't turn out for Cruz.

nvm

Dems sitting at +8 currently. Nice, but it'd be good if they could move up and put this beyond question.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

2 A-rated polls now have Trump at 36% approval.

New poll has Dems up +14. Probably wise to wait for the RCP average, but coming on top of those polls showing Trump’s approval deep under water and the Woodward book about to hit, this could be very promising.

Lately, I have just found it difficult to engage in arguments with people, which is why I haven't come to CF in several months now. I used to do it all the time. Being the peanut gallery was like a recreational activity for me.

Now, I just see the futility of it. Oh well. No use moping about it. I have to go out and live life.