Report: Social Security And Medicare Will Bankrupt America Faster Than We Thought

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

dogs4thewin said:
Just like life insurance or really any other insurance. If I have life insurance I will not see a penny of that money whether whomever I name will get that money when I pass away. If you have dependents that are depending on your income and you either pass away or become disabled they are still depending on you to provide and so they draw off your record (the money you paid in, however they get less than you would have. and I know because as a disabled adult child when my father passed away I get about 75% of the money a month he would have gotten.

It is mathematically unfair, and unsustainable ... no matter how we might feel about it, unfortunately.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

dogs4thewin said:
What is so wrong about it? The need based program has a different rate than the rate for those who paid in the system ( The latter has a set formula to determine monthly payments. What are they supposed to do keep a record of every penny you ever paid into the system?

No - get rid of the program completely.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
If that were the case, then why did the panic/depression of 1893 begin while U.S. money was redeemable in gold?

When you do learn about Debt Deflation, it's obvious in hindsight it's real --

Debt deflation - Wikipedia

Now, we can say that bank loan speculation is a vaguely 'fiat' kind of thing, if one likes. But, both bubbles and depressions happening nations' hard currency regimes (including a gold standard) are just fact.

"Debt" aka "credit" is also a form of deception & is a variation of fiat currency, which I do not endorse. If the depression happened because of debt, then it had nothing to do with gold or silver. If it happened because of fiat currency, it too has nothing to do with gold or silver.

Halbhh · Jun 12, 2018

ananda said:
"Debt" aka "credit" is also a form of deception & is a variation of fiat currency, which I do not endorse. If the depression happened because of debt, then it had nothing to do with gold or silver. If it happened because of fiat currency, it too has nothing to do with gold or silver.

The classic case, repeated over and over in various forms, like other bubbles, in the age of hard currency: Tulip mania - Wikipedia

As Fisher explained, some people start to sell the high priced asset (stocks, tulips, railroads, bonds, you name it), then since many have borrowed money (real, hard money, gold, etc.) from banks to buy that same asset, they try to sell also, then --

Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to
Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and of their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes
A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be
A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and
A like fall in profits, which in a "capitalistic," that is, a private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make
A reduction in output, in trade and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies and unemployment, lead to
pessimism and loss of confidence, which in turn lead to
Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation.
The above eight changes cause
Complicated disturbances in the rates of interest, in particular, a fall in the nominal, or money, rates and a rise in the real, or commodity, rates of interest.

— (Fisher 1933)

Translated into simpler language -- people naturally make bubbles, like the Tulip Mania bubble, and then some start to sell, and others that borrowed to buy start to sell, and the whole thing goes south in a big way, with bankruptcies, and banks shutting down, and people losing their deposits even, and demand for ordinary goods like carriages, etc., falls, and more people lose jobs, and the entire thing spirals down.

Naturally.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
then since many have borrowed money (real, hard money, gold, etc.) from banks ... the entire thing spirals down.

You made my point.

Halbhh · Jun 12, 2018

ananda said:
You made my point.

As some anti-debt crusaders explain, there is good borrowing and bad borrowing.

Good Borrowing -- for instance your delivery service got a huge new contract, and needs more trucks, and borrows the money to buy the trucks to meet the demand. Borrowing to increase the ability to earn money in a situation of clear demand and insufficient ability to meet that demand, so that the machinery etc. purchased with the loan soon is earning money.

Same thing for roads -- governments need at times to do a huge project that pays back over many years of time, like a big new road, and sells bonds (debt) as a way to borrow money to build the road, which in turn improves the economy generally, and therefore increases tax revenue from that same economic expansion. Same for schools -- free K-12 education increases productive capacity usually (when done well), and pays back more than it cost, historically. It can be done poorly and not pay well, but most of the time it's been done well enough, and pays off the cost with profits to the society (including fewer criminals, not the least).

drjean · Jun 12, 2018

Radagast said:
Jesus said that?

You're probably thinking of Paul, and he said something different: ... we gave you this rule: “The one who is unwilling to work shall not eat.” (2 Thessalonians 3:10)

Social Security is aimed at people who are unable to work. This verse doesn't apply to them.

Jesus IS the Word.

He says the poor we will always have with us.

I've said nothing about those who are unable to work, unless they are here illegally.

Social security was created to cover you in that final year or two of life... when created man retired about one year before the average man died.

Yes I know of those using TIN numbers to pay taxes, God bless them. But they do so to obey the laws and with hope of receiving back once citizens. They are not the ones coming here only for a free handout without excuse.

Proverbs 18:9-10 Whoever is lazy regarding his work is also a brother to the master of destruction. The name of the Lord is a strong tower; a righteous person rushes to it and is lifted up above the danger.

Proverbs 10:3-5 The Lord won’t cause the righteous to hunger, but he will reject what the wicked crave. Idle hands bring poverty, but hard-working hands lead to wealth. Whoever harvests during summer acts wisely, but the son who sleeps during harvest is disgraceful.

Proverbs 21:25 The craving of a sluggard will be the death of him, because his hands refuse to work.

Deuteronomy 5:13 Six days you shall labor and do all your work.

Genesis 2:15 The Lord God took the man and put him in the garden of Eden to work it and keep it.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
As some anti-debt crusaders explain, there is good borrowing and bad borrowing.

Good Borrowing -- for instance your delivery service got a huge new contract, and needs more trucks, and borrows the money to buy the trucks to meet the demand. Borrowing to increase the ability to earn money in a situation of clear demand and insufficient ability to meet that demand, so that the machinery etc. purchased with the loan soon is earning money.

Same thing for roads -- governments need at times to do a huge project that pays back over many years of time, like a big new road, and sells bonds (debt) as a way to borrow money to build the road, which in turn improves the economy generally, and therefore increases tax revenue from that same economic expansion. Same for schools -- free K-12 education increases productive capacity usually (when done well), and pays back more than it cost, historically. It can be done poorly and not pay well, but most of the time it's been done well enough, and pays off the cost with profits to the society (including fewer criminals, not the least).

I don't believe in good or bad borrowing, and believe it to be a major basis for most of the economic problems we have now.

I believe in paying for things with money I have already worked for ... not by deceptively borrowing from my future self (or - worse - pass the debt on to burden others who didn't ask for it, if I should pass early).

drjean · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
Illegal immigrants are not qualified to get Social Security, but many of them go ahead and pay the Federal taxes, like FICA, anyway.

Did you get that? (since it could be quite surprising possibly)

Millions of illegal immigrants (not all, but millions) are paying the taxes that you yourself will draw benefits from...but they themselves are not getting the benefits.

See? They are helping to pay for your own retirement, but themselves not getting that same SS benefit.

(I repeated since it will be so very surprising to many)

Millions more illegals are here only for the benefits including that of social security which they are receiving, even if by illegal means (stealing dead people's ssn's). Those who are here as overstays and still working pay in to try and hope they will receive benefits retroactive once made citizens and not break any real US laws (criminal). If government does a look back for citizenship and see they have paid for 10 years, it would be a benefit to them.

Social Security was not made for a retirement income only, but supplemental for that one or two years of end of life.

I paid in for those ahead of me needing it. Those behind me are doing likewise. It must be fixed because, imo, 2 factors that have changed: increased number of fraudulent receivers, and the lack of children being born to cover the vast number millennials who are not even marrying, much more having children. There is no one to pay for them.

(Not to mention how the government has stolen from it from time to time from the get-go... my dad lost all of his originally because I think it was Kennedy who dissolved the monies into another fund?)

Halbhh · Jun 12, 2018

ananda said:
I don't believe in good or bad borrowing.

I believe in paying for things with money I have now ... not by deceptively borrowing from my future self (or - worse - pass the debt on to burden others who didn't ask for it, if I should pass early).

Ah, but the good way for an individual person is not the same as what is the only good way for all other persons.

Maybe you or I, if single, no dependents, perhaps we might do fine living in a tiny cabin, or even in a cave.

A nation needs roads and schools for the kids.

Taxes and bonds (borrowing) -- the common choice of human governments, to accomplish what the citizens demand.

Kaon · Jun 12, 2018

NightHawkeye said:
From the "Day of reckoning looms", files: Report: Social Security And Medicare Will Bankrupt America Faster Than We Thought

Something very important was missed in the news cycle of celebrity inspired pardons and trade wars. The trustees who oversee Social Security issued their latest report on the financial health of Medicare and Social Security, and it is not good. According to the trustees, Social Security’s “trust funds” will be depleted in 2034. Medicare’s hospital fund runs out in just eight years. Even worse, Social Security will be forced to “dip into its trust fund” to pay benefits this year.
...
If I could wave a magic wand, I would not have created Social Security in the first place. It is not just because I’m a classical liberal who fundamentally believes taxation is theft, but because Social Security is fundamentally a terrible program.

It is predicated on taking money from working people and giving it to non-working people ... If I created an investment based on Social Security, I would be sent to prison for running a Ponzi scheme.
...
What can we do to save the program?
...
The “easiest” idea is to simply raise or eliminate the payroll tax cap.
...
One idea to cut benefits is to means test them for wealthier retirees.
...
Another idea is to raise the retirement age.
...
The reality is politicians made promises that cannot be kept. The sooner we bite the bullet and make the necessary fixes, the better off Social Security and younger Americans will be.

Perhaps the most significant comment in the article ...

There is also a moral component here. It is unfair to ask younger workers to pay crippling taxes in order to fund the generous retirement of Baby Boomers.

Social Security was moral dessert for politicians taking advantage of a low generational life expectancy. It was never meant to last; I hope everyone knew that.

Medicare exploits chronic sickness, and kneels to the AMA and pharmaceutical industry (despite the superficial "tough stance" on drug price gouging, and patient advocacy.)

The credit system of America was already eradicated decades ago; the 80s ensured that not only the early 90s recession happened, but that the 2001, and 2008 "recession" occured. (This is why it is important to look at statistics over long term, instead of year by year, or quarter by quarter.)

Most everyone over the age of 25 should see the OP as a possible inevitable economic conclusion.

Kaon · Jun 12, 2018

dogs4thewin said:
the last one cannot be done. Short of killing people when it happens.

That can be done; it is historic.

Halbhh · Jun 12, 2018

drjean said:
Millions more illegals are here only for the benefits including that of social security which they are receiving, even if by illegal means (stealing dead people's ssn's). Those who are here as overstays and still working pay in to try and hope they will receive benefits retroactive once made citizens and not break any real US laws (criminal). If government does a look back for citizenship and see they have paid for 10 years, it would be a benefit to them.

Social Security was not made for a retirement income only, but supplemental for that one or two years of end of life.

I paid in for those ahead of me needing it. Those behind me are doing likewise. It must be fixed because, imo, 2 factors that have changed: increased number of fraudulent receivers, and the lack of children being born to cover the vast number millennials who are not even marrying, much more having children. There is no one to pay for them.

We don't' want to accidentally pigeonhole huge groups of people by painting them all as being just like a relatively few criminals among them. If the majority were doing the wrong, then it's different. When only a small portion is, it's wrong to paint it onto the whole group.

I personally knew many illegals working in Austin, whom I worked with once on a house of a friend, and they were honest and hard working. One I kept in touch with was especially generous also, often fixing the cars of others, both citizens and non, often for free (as a gift), or for sacrificially low prices, according to their ability to pay him. Honest. Generous. Real. Actual.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
Ah, but the good way for an individual person is not the same as what is the only good way for all other persons.

Maybe you or I, if single, no dependents, perhaps we might do fine living in a tiny cabin, or even in a cave.

A nation needs roads and schools for the kids.

Taxes and bonds (borrowing) -- the common choice of human governments, to accomplish what the citizens demand.

Taxes (using money already in existence) is one thing, and can be acceptable if reasonable, e.g. using taxes to build roads, schools, etc.

Borrowing/deficit spending, fiat currency, pyramidal schemes like SS/MC, etc. are all forms of deception, and are immoral and unethical variations on theft.

cow451 · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
We don't' want to accidentally pigeonhole huge groups of people by painting them all as being just like a relatively few criminals among them. If the majority were doing the wrong, then it's different. When only a small portion is, it's wrong to paint it onto the whole group.

I personally knew many illegals working in Austin, whom I worked with once on a house of a friend, and they were honest and hard working. One I kept in touch with was especially generous also, often fixing the cars of others, both citizens and non, often for free (as a gift), or for sacrificially low prices, according to their ability to pay him. Honest. Generous. Real. Actual.

Well, some Mexican rapists are nicer than others ... :ebil:

NightHawkeye · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
We don't' want to accidentally pigeonhole huge groups of people by painting them all as being just like a relatively few criminals among them. If the majority were doing the wrong, then it's different. When only a small portion is, it's wrong to paint it onto the whole group.

Unfortunately, any group which has a large number of criminals among them does get characterized as such ... and often for good reason.

Halbhh said:
I personally knew many illegals working in Austin, whom I worked with once on a house of a friend, and they were honest and hard working. One I kept in touch with was especially generous also, often fixing the cars of others, both citizens and non, often for free (as a gift), or for sacrificially low prices, according to their ability to pay him. Honest. Generous. Real. Actual.

This is true. Most Mexicans coming to Texas seek a better life and experience the upward mobility of the American dream. I spent most of my adult life in Texas ... Austin, Houston, Dallas, Galveston, Amarillo, El Paso and even a little time in Lubbock with frequent visits to San Antonio.

Halbhh · Jun 12, 2018

ananda said:
Taxes (using money already in existence) is one thing, and can be acceptable if reasonable, e.g. using taxes to build roads, schools, etc.

Borrowing/deficit spending, fiat currency/stealing, pyramidal schemes like SS/MC, etc. are all forms of deception, and are immoral and unethical.

Everyone in the U.S. practically (like 90% of us over age 18) know that Social Security isn't taking in enough taxes to pay out the benefits it has set in it over long time periods. So, it's not really deception in that people know. Why don't we pay more? Because representative government isn't going to be perfect enough to be ideal management for something as complex as retirement, ultimately. But....by luck or by blessing, the U.S. has been able to grow it's way out of such binds predicted in the past, over and over and over. People vaguely know that also.
In th

NightHawkeye said:
Unfortunately, any group which has a large number of criminals among them does get characterized as such ... and often for good reason.

This is true. Most Mexicans coming to Texas seek a better life and experience the upward mobility of the American dream. I spent most of my adult life in Texas ... Austin, Houston, Dallas, Galveston, Amarillo, El Paso and even a little time in Lubbock with frequent visits to San Antonio.

I was about 27 years in Austin, but spent time around other parts of the state plenty like Galveston, Houston, El Paso, Weatherford, even the Valley some, and plenty of excursions.

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

Halbhh said:
Everyone in the U.S. practically (like 90% of us over age 18) know that Social Security isn't taking in enough taxes to pay out the benefits it has set in it over long time periods. So, it's not really deception in that people know. Why don't we pay more? Because representative government isn't going to be perfect enough to be ideal management for something as complex as retirement, ultimately. But....by luck or by blessing, the U.S. has been able to grow it's way out of such binds predicted in the past, over and over and over. People vaguely know that also.

It's deception when gov't pretends it can be dealt with or repaired without harm to the People. It cannot end well, mathematically speaking.

LoAmmi · Jun 12, 2018

ananda said:
It's deception when gov't pretends it can be dealt with or repaired without harm to the People. It cannot end well, mathematically speaking.

In your ideal, do people just starve in the street if they don't have enough saved?

ananda · Jun 12, 2018

LoAmmi said:
In your ideal, do people just starve in the street if they don't have enough saved?

That's a question for another thread. I'm speaking about the mathematical impossibility of sustaining pyramid schemes.

Report: Social Security And Medicare Will Bankrupt America Faster Than We Thought

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