Trump

CherubRam said:

I doubt all those things will happen. Besides, it takes years for problems to catch up with us. It will be about three more years before some problems occur. Next election you should expect to see a Democrat elected as president. And the bull goes on and on.

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The problems have been there for decades.

It has no choice but to happen.

Have you seen your laws passed in your country under other monikers? The framework for ordering the chaos has already been laid. The laws are already on the books - just not enforced.

And, once the market collapse the States have no choice but to go to war to generate capital, and come out. Except, this time the US will have no allies worth the trouble.

You may have also forgotten about Japan and China owning a third of the States, that the States keep trying to start proxy wars to get Russia and China to come down to their economic and geopolitical level. But, Russia and China already have a plan for after America.

The BRIC nations and SCO already have an empire ready to rise out of the ashes of the Western dominance of America that was. And, the economy will by backed by gold, not promises and wishes (i.e. the US dollar.)

The world is already moving on as if the States are already history. That is why the States in particular have such a problem with globalozation.

CherubRam said:

The Democrat's are trying to protect the young people from being deported. Obama should not have brought them here, but since they are already here, why not let them stay?

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One hint:
I-L-L-E-G-A-L

CherubRam said:

Well they have in part grown up in this country, and it would be vary disruptive to their lives to send them back.

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CherubRam said:

Not likely, other countries depend on Americas wealth.

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Other countries are becoming emerging markets backed by Gold and Silver, or some other precious, physically representative currency vector.

When the BRIC nations announce themselves in the vacuum of American economic hegemony, they will announce their financial backing by precious metals or physical representation - not fiat paper legal tender that isn't backed by anything other than confidence.

America has remained strong despite $70 Trillion in debt by world debt holders because it sells confidence in a future and modernity. The "trade product" is empty; Americans should have received that warning in 2008, 2011, and once again now.

The waning of confidence in America began long ago, but was noticeable in 2003, and especially in 2011, when America lost its AAA rating. Another correction will be next, as the DOW is artificially inflated, and then market collapse. During all of this, the malleable population will protest, riot and cause civil unrest permitting the US militarized cops to use their military hand-me-downs.

Then, as another distraction the world will go to war. This time, because of the weakness of the country (i.e. no harmony among people,) America will likely get its first "fall" as an empire. (Any empire worth its salt has fallen at least once.)

These are textbook nation destabilizing tactics.

CherubRam said:

I try to think of others besides myself.

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Then try to think about people who don't break the law
and are trying to live the best they can here. Illegals are
the last people that deserve our compassion. We have
enough of our own people who need help.

Ygrene Imref said:

Other countries are becoming emerging markets backed by Gold and Silver, or some other precious, physically representative currency vector.

When the BRIC nations announce themselves in the vacuum of American economic hegemony, they will announce their financial backing by precious metals or physical representation - not fiat paper legal tender that isn't backed by anything other than confidence.

America has remained strong despite $70 Trillion in debt by world debt holders because it sells confidence in a future and modernity. The "trade product" is empty; Americans should have received that warning in 2008, 2011, and once again now.

The waning of confidence in America began long ago, but was noticeable in 2003, and especially in 2011, when America lost its AAA rating. Another correction will be next, as the DOW is artificially inflated, and then market collapse. During all of this, the malleable population will protest, riot and cause civil unrest permitting the US militarized cops to use their military hand-me-downs.

Then, as another distraction the world will go to war. This time, because of the weakness of the country (i.e. no harmony among people,) America will likely get its first "fall" as an empire. (Any empire worth its salt has fallen at least once.)

These are textbook nation destabilizing tactics.

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Trump is working on correcting this....http://yournewswire.com/trump-abolish-federal-reserve/
But first get the right person at the helm. .https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ral-reserve-hit-snags/?utm_term=.a0cbcbc7570e

Ygrene Imref said:

Other countries are becoming emerging markets backed by Gold and Silver, or some other precious, physically representative currency vector.

When the BRIC nations announce themselves in the vacuum of American economic hegemony, they will announce their financial backing by precious metals or physical representation - not fiat paper legal tender that isn't backed by anything other than confidence.

America has remained strong despite $70 Trillion in debt by world debt holders because it sells confidence in a future and modernity. The "trade product" is empty; Americans should have received that warning in 2008, 2011, and once again now.

The waning of confidence in America began long ago, but was noticeable in 2003, and especially in 2011, when America lost its AAA rating. Another correction will be next, as the DOW is artificially inflated, and then market collapse. During all of this, the malleable population will protest, riot and cause civil unrest permitting the US militarized cops to use their military hand-me-downs.

Then, as another distraction the world will go to war. This time, because of the weakness of the country (i.e. no harmony among people,) America will likely get its first "fall" as an empire. (Any empire worth its salt has fallen at least once.)

These are textbook nation destabilizing tactics.

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I agree with some of what you are saying... however the Dow is NOT artificially inflated.

You're parroting armchair QB stuff. I have now for the better part of 25 years worked IN the industry directly running investment $$, and NO I do not pick mutual funds for people... I mean I DIRECTLY invest capital in equity portfolios that I manage as a PM.

The very idea that "Wall Street" is rigged by some cabal or force is utterly ludicrous. The annualized rate of return from 1900- 2017 for the Dow ( in its various forms over the years) is 9.84%

I haven't done the math but I am relatively certain that if you take the starting value of 68.5 for the DOW in 1900 and annualize it at 9.84% you'll likely end up at OR BELOW where the current value of the DOW is located at today.

Now, If you would like to argue that the current market environment is ripe for a correction I'm will you on that. Do I see a cataclysmic collapse ABSOLUTELY NOT! Yes, the US is MILES in debt with its unfunded liabilities. The problem that you are ignoring is that economically it's not just us. China and Japan own TONS of our debt and they CAN NOT survive economically if we fall. We fall THE WHOLE WORLD slides back into the stone ages economically and that is FACT.

The 3rd world is in has just as much of an issue with sovereign debt and worse yet they owe the developing world well past their eyelids so any pseudo garbage about them going to precious metal-based currency is uninformed gibberish

The only hope for averting a worldwide financial collapse is for individual countries each one at a time, including the US, to stop running off money whenever they feel like it and go back to a gold standard or something similar. We are standing on top of a bubble of air that is going to pop sooner or later.

BukiRob said:

I agree with some of what you are saying... however the Dow is NOT artificially inflated.

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The DOW has been artificially inflated since 200; the dollar is not worth the cotton it is printed on, and so the DOW (among other exchanges) must inflate in order to reflect the actual value of the currency. Just because you can make a virtual profit on fiat currency doesn't mean the profit is real, tangible or available as liquid. The scale by which the rates can be normalized is for the benefit of the investor's psyche, and the market.

The DOW price is a great marker for the devaluation of the dollar. Inflation has already happened; deflation will come.

You're parroting armchair QB stuff. I have now for the better part of 25 years worked IN the industry directly running investment $$, and NO I do not pick mutual funds for people... I mean I DIRECTLY invest capital in equity portfolios that I manage as a PM.

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No, this is from my own experience in markets (finance and real estate) in NYC and LA since 2007 - as a modeller.

The markets are now predictable, and can be manipulated if you know the math to model the trends. It just happens to be illegal.

The very idea that "Wall Street" is rigged by some cabal or force is utterly ludicrous. The annualized rate of return from 1900- 2017 for the Dow ( in its various forms over the years) is 9.84%

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It isn't ridiculous. But, if you are incredulous that is your prerogative.

I haven't done the math but I am relatively certain that if you take the starting value of 68.5 for the DOW in 1900 and annualize it at 9.84% you'll likely end up at OR BELOW where the current value of the DOW is located at today.

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The DOW has no value because the dollar has no value; it has been inflated. The dollar is backed by confidence, not by precious metal or real exportation of labour. The price to invest one contract in the 30 pioneering American companies has gone up ~260% since 2007-2008. The States already lost their AAA rating for their 2008 market practices.

The values of the DOW in the 1900s (when there was no Federal Reserve centralized bank) vs. the value of the DOW today has been scaled so that returns are quasi-linear. You just need a scale factor to linearize the trend, and with 100 years of time scale, the averages won't be so precise that one cannot linearize a smooth trend. Sometimes there is a natural scaling that is in the form of corrections, so that the standard deviation between major time scales are marginalized. 2008 was a correction; the Dow was already inflated at ~10,000+.

The next "correction" that happens will be major, because several markets built on "confidence" will crumble when the confidence fades as it is now. You don't have to believe it.

BukiRob said:

Now, If you would like to argue that the current market environment is ripe for a correction I'm will you on that. Do I see a cataclysmic collapse ABSOLUTELY NOT! Yes, the US is MILES in debt with its unfunded liabilities. The problem that you are ignoring is that economically it's not just us. China and Japan own TONS of our debt and they CAN NOT survive economically if we fall. We fall THE WHOLE WORLD slides back into the stone ages economically and that is FACT.

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You supremely, supremely underestimate what the emerging markets, BRICs and Western allies of the US are doing behind the scenes to prepare for that inevitable collapse of the American economy. The nations have been preparing for this since it was obvious almost 60 years ago; what you see as geopolitical and economic seismicity is actually just the settling of the chess pieces.

Your idea of exceptionalism, and sense of national "invictcus" is no doubt shared by many Americans. However, it is precisely what will make the American economy collapse (not correction) that much worse. It will make 1929 look like a correction (which it was, for 1913 - 1928). When it happens, it will shock many and cause severe psychologically damaging culture - which will sustain the collapse into a war. Don't you remember how Y2K/dot com happened, and then Afghanistan/Iraq happened as a response (people lost entire 401K in that "correction")? It is the same formula, or did you think it was a coincidence the market "corrected" itself, and the US just so happened to find a reason to go to war - thereby increasing the confidence in the economy?

The 3rd world is in has just as much of an issue with sovereign debt and worse yet they owe the developing world well past their eyelids so any pseudo garbage about them going to precious metal-based currency is uninformed gibberish

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You severely underestimate the future - based on the moves on the geopolitical sphere, and economic revelations and reconstitution(s). The alleged third world is going through a necessary metamorphosis from such a nation to an emerging, powerful economic nation - just like the US is going through a necessary metamorphosis from an empire on top to a fallen empire. Every empire that is worth its salt has fallen at least once; this is not new; this has happened in this exact way in history before. If you notice all of the trends and extrapolate them into one driving model, you can see how this all is predictably degenerate simply from basic historical data.

Open Heart said:

The only hope for averting a worldwide financial collapse is for individual countries each one at a time, including the US, to stop running off money whenever they feel like it and go back to a gold standard or something similar. We are standing on top of a bubble of air that is going to pop sooner or later.

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Exactly.

It doesn't matter how much money you can trade on a market, if the currency or contracts are worthless, and/or backed by worthlessness - then, you are just trading virtually. Unfortunately, the world believes worthless currency is enough to be backed by confidence and IOUs. Several different countries own the US's $70 Trillion debt; what do you think will happen when those countries decide to recall.

What do you think would happen if the West was suddenly surprised by an emerging economic power backed by gold and/or silver - up to $10 Trillion - and decide to call back?

Ygrene Imref said:

The DOW has been artificially inflated since 200; the dollar is not worth the cotton it is printed on, and so the DOW (among other exchanges) must inflate in order to reflect the actual value of the currency. Just because you can make a virtual profit on fiat currency doesn't mean the profit is real, tangible or available as liquid. The scale by which the rates can be normalized is for the benefit of the investor's psyche, and the market.

The DOW price is a great marker for the devaluation of the dollar. Inflation has already happened; deflation will come.



No, this is from my own experience in markets (finance and real estate) in NYC and LA since 2007 - as a modeller.

The markets are now predictable, and can be manipulated if you know the math to model the trends. It just happens to be illegal.



It isn't ridiculous. But, if you are incredulous that is your prerogative.



The DOW has no value because the dollar has no value; it has been inflated. The dollar is backed by confidence, not by precious metal or real exportation of labour. The price to invest one contract in the 30 pioneering American companies has gone up ~260% since 2007-2008. The States already lost their AAA rating for their 2008 market practices.

The values of the DOW in the 1900s (when there was no Federal Reserve centralized bank) vs. the value of the DOW today has been scaled so that returns are quasi-linear. You just need a scale factor to linearize the trend, and with 100 years of time scale, the averages won't be so precise that one cannot linearize a smooth trend. Sometimes there is a natural scaling that is in the form of corrections, so that the standard deviation between major time scales are marginalized. 2008 was a correction; the Dow was already inflated at ~10,000+.

The next "correction" that happens will be major, because several markets built on "confidence" will crumble when the confidence fades as it is now. You don't have to believe it.

Click to expand...

You ignored every point I made. If you take the value the dow in 1900 and apply an annualized rate of 8.3% (Dr. Jeremy Siegel's work on the dow suggests that is the historical RoR)

If you do the math the Market is at FAIR VALUE.

As I said in the near term, a valid argument can be made for a correction. The fact is, you really do not understand the underlying dynamics of what is driving the market and the Dollar plays a relatively insignificant role. It's about EARNINGS and forward Guidence.

You seem to look at this as though the US is in a vacuum when economically speaking everything is HIGHLY interconnected. 25 years ago when I started my career the correlation between International equities and Domestic Equities was less than 70%. Today the US domestic equities indexes and the developed international equities indexes have almost a 90% correlation. The correlation of emerging markets and the S&P 500 is at 80% BUT, I would argue that those numbers are artificially low because those figures are compiled by looking 2015--> 15 years. Current correlations are probably significantly higher.

The bottom line is IF you are right ( I don't think that you are.) The outcome you think you see is not what will happen. If the US market collapses it will throw the world into a global depression that will make the 1930's look like a picnic.

You go on about the US and its propped up economy yet Europe is FAR worse. You mentioned the BRIC countries.... Brazil just had a major DOWNGRADE of its Sovereign debt. Russia is on fire economically. China has serious issues and India is the only one of the bunch right now that is not a complete mess.

BukiRob said:

You ignored every point I made. If you take the value the dow in 1900 and apply an annualized rate of 8.3% (Dr. Jeremy Siegel's work on the dow suggests that is the historical RoR)

If you do the math the Market is at FAIR VALUE.

As I said in the near term, a valid argument can be made for a correction. The fact is, you really do not understand the underlying dynamics of what is driving the market and the Dollar plays a relatively insignificant role. It's about EARNINGS and forward Guidence.

You seem to look at this as though the US is in a vacuum when economically speaking everything is HIGHLY interconnected. 25 years ago when I started my career the correlation between International equities and Domestic Equities was less than 70%. Today the US domestic equities indexes and the developed international equities indexes have almost a 90% correlation. The correlation of emerging markets and the S&P 500 is at 80% BUT, I would argue that those numbers are artificially low because those figures are compiled by looking 2015--> 15 years. Current correlations are probably significantly higher.

The bottom line is IF you are right ( I don't think that you are.) The outcome you think you see is not what will happen. If the US market collapses it will throw the world into a global depression that will make the 1930's look like a picnic.

You go on about the US and its propped up economy yet Europe is FAR worse. You mentioned the BRIC countries.... Brazil just had a major DOWNGRADE of its Sovereign debt. Russia is on fire economically. China has serious issues and India is the only one of the bunch right now that is not a complete mess.

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You are free to believe whatever you want to believe; I know you don't need me to tell you that.