Poll: Trump beats Hillary head to head

NightHawkeye · Sep 5, 2015

Oops ...
From the "momentum gathering," files: Poll: Trump beats Hillary head-to-head | The Hill

The poll by SurveyUSA finds that matched up directly, Trump garners 45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent.

That's a game changer ...

Maren · Sep 5, 2015

Get back to me in a year, when these types of polls actually matter. In Sept, 2011, Rick Perry was expected to be the Republican nominee, having recently taken the lead from Michelle Bachmann -- and they were expected to have tight races with Obama. Go back to 2008, and Rudy Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee and was polling well against Hillary, the expected Democratic nominee.

Douger · Sep 5, 2015

What an awful scenario.
But in a case like that there's only one choice for a freedom loving conservative, that would be the candidate who didn't run on using the federal government to kick millions of people out of their homes and literally, wall off the country.

OldWiseGuy · Sep 5, 2015

This is great news. If my guy Kasich can't get in , Go Donald!

cheese007 · Sep 5, 2015

So looking into the demographic data should give any reasonable person pause about these poll results. Leaving out undecideds, Trump's numbers are as follows:

60% of white voters
29.76% of black voters
38.27% of Hispanic voters
51% of Asian voters

For comparison, this is the breakdown for Romney in 2012
59% of white voters
6% of black voters
27% of Hispanic voters
26% of Asian voters

Maybe I'm naive, but I have a hard time believing that Donald "laziness is a trait in blacks" Trump's road to the presidency is going to be as a result of minority voters flocking to him while white voters remain consistent

NightHawkeye · Sep 5, 2015

Breitbart provided an interesting analysis ...
Shock Poll: Donald Trump Beats Hillary Clinton, Shrinks Key Gaps | Breitbart

Donald Trump has a clear path to the White House, according to a shocking new poll from SurveyUSA.
...
He wins a huge share of the Democrats’ non-white base — 25 percent of African Americans, 31 percent of Hispanics and 41 percent of the relatively small Asian vote.

That’s a heart attack for the GOP establishment ...

Contrary to Democrat talking points, Hillary won only low-education voters ...

Trump wins four-year college grads by eight points, and people with some college by 13 points, leaving Clinton to take the high-school-only voters, 44 percent to 35 percent.

Oops ...

Hank77 · Sep 5, 2015

OldWiseGuy said:
This is great news. If my guy Kasich can't get in , Go Donald!

Trump is ..... inconsistent?

Until recently he was for universal single payer healthcare, like Canada and Scotland's. No longer, now he is a conservative, he doesn't believe it can work. Go back to the way it was before Obama Care but allow private insurance companies to bid over state lines. He says it will make it easier for big companies/employers, like himself, operating in several states to bid for one good plan.

He just repeats what other candidates have already said, just louder.

pakicetus · Sep 6, 2015

A lot of people are upset about Trump's "build a wall and deport all the illegals" plan, but I actually support it—just from him, not from other candidates. If Trump gets elected, he'll be doing all those illegals a favor. I'll actually tell the U.S. government I'm Mexican; Trumpless paradise, here I come! No way will I let his wall keep me in.

HerbieHeadley · Sep 6, 2015

cheese007 said:
So looking into the demographic data should give any reasonable person pause about these poll results. Leaving out undecideds, Trump's numbers are as follows:

60% of white voters
29.76% of black voters
38.27% of Hispanic voters
51% of Asian voters

For comparison, this is the breakdown for Romney in 2012
59% of white voters
6% of black voters
27% of Hispanic voters
26% of Asian voters

Maybe I'm naive, but I have a hard time believing that Donald "laziness is a trait in blacks" Trump's road to the presidency is going to be as a result of minority voters flocking to him while white voters remain consistent

"Basically this poll completely disproves the MSM/GOPe argument that Trump is a disaster for Republican chances to increase their share of the minority vote. The opposite is exactly true, Trump incredibly broadens the base. If anything, Trump needs to sharpen his message a little to increase his numbers among white voters !"

http://theconservativetreehouse.com...poll-confirms-and-media-narratives-destroyed/

cheese007 · Sep 7, 2015

HerbieHeadley said:
"Basically this poll completely disproves the MSM/GOPe argument that Trump is a disaster for Republican chances to increase their share of the minority vote. The opposite is exactly true, Trump incredibly broadens the base. If anything, Trump needs to sharpen his message a little to increase his numbers among white voters !"

http://theconservativetreehouse.com...poll-confirms-and-media-narratives-destroyed/

A more simple explanation is that the poll is wrong, but you keep telling yourself that Trump will win 40% of the Hispanic vote

grasping the after wind · Sep 7, 2015

cheese007 said:
A more simple explanation is that the poll is wrong, but you keep telling yourself that Trump will win 40% of the Hispanic vote

Isn't that what the republicans said about the polls in 2012?

cheese007 · Sep 7, 2015

grasping the after wind said:
Isn't that what the republicans said about the polls in 2012?

If I saw 10 polls saying that Donald Trump would win 40% of the Hispanic vote, that might change my mind. If the SurveyUSA poll showed him winning 66.3% of the white vote, I'd buy it (since that would produce the same margin of victory the SurveyUSA polling says would happen if the election were held today, and would be a continuation of past electoral trends). But as it stands, I remain to be convinced that Donald Trump's path to 40% of the Hispanic vote is by railing against illegal immigration and opposing birthright citizenship. Especially considering the immigration views of the last nationwide Republican to see those kinds of numbers

Rationalt · Sep 7, 2015

cheese007 said:
If I saw 10 polls saying that Donald Trump would win 40% of the Hispanic vote, that might change my mind. If the SurveyUSA poll showed him winning 66.3% of the white vote, I'd buy it (since that would produce the same margin of victory the SurveyUSA polling says would happen if the election were held today, and would be a continuation of past electoral trends). But as it stands, I remain to be convinced that Donald Trump's path to 40% of the Hispanic vote is by railing against illegal immigration and opposing birthright citizenship. Especially considering the immigration views of the last nationwide Republican to see those kinds of numbers

It doesn't matter who says what. The flood is coming.Get on the boat , Or Not.

bhsmte · Sep 7, 2015

Maren said:
Get back to me in a year, when these types of polls actually matter. In Sept, 2011, Rick Perry was expected to be the Republican nominee, having recently taken the lead from Michelle Bachmann -- and they were expected to have tight races with Obama. Go back to 2008, and Rudy Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee and was polling well against Hillary, the expected Democratic nominee.

Agree.

History has taught us, polls at this stage mean virtually nothing.

I do think though, Hilary is in trouble.

cheese007 · Sep 7, 2015

Rationalt said:
It doesn't matter who says what. The flood is coming.Get on the boat , Or Not.

Do you have any reason to disagree with my analysis other than that you don't like the outcome?

Sistrin · Sep 7, 2015

pakicetus said:
A lot of people are upset about Trump's "build a wall and deport all the illegals" plan, but I actually support it—just from him, not from other candidates. If Trump gets elected, he'll be doing all those illegals a favor. I'll actually tell the U.S. government I'm Mexican; Trumpless paradise, here I come! No way will I let his wall keep me in.

Where have we heard that before?

Quote:

Ever wonder what happened to all those celebrities who promised to leave the country if George W. Bush was elected president?

The original statements:

Eddie Vedder - "I'm moving to a different country if little Damien II gets elected."

Alec Baldwin - was never quoted directly, but reportedly made a statement to his wife Kim Basinger, who was later quoted in Focus magazine saying that Alec "might leave the country if Bush is elected president ... and then I'd probably have to go too."

Barbara Streisand - "I don't think you'll see me around here for at least four years."

Robert Altman - "If George Bush is elected president, I'm leaving for France."

Pierre Salinger - "If Bush wins, I'm going to leave the country and spend the rest of my life in France."

The outcome:

Eddie Vedder was "extremely disappointed", but not enough to leave the US. He did go to Hawaii, however.

Alec Baldwin claims that he never made the statement, but even if he did it wouldn't matter since Bush wasn't really elected, he was "selected by five judges up in Washington who voted along party lines". (He originally claimed his wife never spoke with Focus magazine, a claim which he later recanted.)

Barbara Streisand, who was at a White House dinner when she made the statement, claims that when she said she would not be seen "around here" that she was only referring to not being seen around the White House.

Robert Altman, despite being caught on film, later insisted that he was misquoted, saying "Here's what I really said. I said that if Bush gets elected, I'll move to Paris, Texas, because the state will be better off if he's out of it."

Pierre Salinger moved to France.

Source: http://manbottle.com/humor/if_bush_get_s_elected__i_ll_leave_the_country...

Desk trauma · Sep 7, 2015

Hillary Vs. Trump.

That's not a choice, that's a threat.

NightHawkeye · Sep 7, 2015

Desk trauma said:
Hillary Vs. Trump.

That's not a choice, that's a threat.

Rationalt · Sep 7, 2015

cheese007 said:
Do you have any reason to disagree with my analysis other than that you don't like the outcome?

Reading the situation.You will see more polls going forward.I felt trump has a good chance at being president when he was scoring around 15% after the immigrant stance backlash.

cheese007 · Sep 7, 2015

Rationalt said:
Reading the situation.You will see more polls going forward.I felt trump has a good chance at being president when he was scoring around 15% after the immigrant stance backlash.

Are your feelings anything like Peggy Noonan's "vibrations" from 2012?

Poll: Trump beats Hillary head to head

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