Any thoughts on this "educated guess" about the ultimate impact Trump's Tax policy?

[rambot]

A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan

I'm not much of an accountant type person but I would assume the people at the Institute for TAxation and Economic Policy would be.

Here is what they figure:

 

[essentialsaltes]

In addition to the inequitable Robin-Hood-in-reverse distribution toward the rich, Trump's announced policies would also significantly increase deficits and the national debt, primarily due to the extension of the rich-people-benefitting Trump tax cuts.

Trump has called for extending his 2017 tax cuts, which would add more than $5 trillion over 10 years to the United States’ $35.7 trillion national debt, according to a study from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB).

All told, CRFB found that the Trump policies it studied would add $7.5 trillion of debt

 

[probinson]

It seems to me that the tariffs are the big unknown here. The report even seems to acknowledge that in its methodology section which states:

The bulk of this analysis was conducted using the ITEP Microsimulation Tax Model. The unconventional nature of many of the policy proposals crafted by former President Trump, however, required bringing in new data and techniques previously outside the model’s scope.​

​

If you remove their estimates on tariffs, there are no tax increases on any income group.

It remains to be seen what the impact of the tariffs will actually be. While it's true that companies often pass the costs of the tariffs on to the consumer, the real unknown is how companies will respond in general. Will they pass costs on? Will they bring some manufacturing back to the US? I suspect they'll do some combination of both. But only time will tell how that impacts consumers at all income levels.

 

[essentialsaltes]

If you remove their estimates on tariffs, there are no tax increases on any income group.

It remains to be seen what the impact of the tariffs will actually be.

We know the impact of Trump's 2018 tariffs. They raised prices on families.

While estimates vary, economic analyses suggest the average American household has paid somewhere from several hundred up to a thousand dollars or more per year thanks to higher consumer prices attributable to the tariffs.

Note that the 2018 tariffs were targetted in certain areas like steel, while his current proposal is on *everything*.

 

[Belk]

A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan

I'm not much of an accountant type person but I would assume the people at the Institute for TAxation and Economic Policy would be.

Here is what they figure:
View attachment 358412

View attachment 358413


View attachment 358414

 

[rambot]

View attachment 358420

I LIKE the gif....but I don't understand the gif.

 

[rambot]

It seems to me that the tariffs are the big unknown here. The report even seems to acknowledge that in its methodology section which states:

The bulk of this analysis was conducted using the ITEP Microsimulation Tax Model. The unconventional nature of many of the policy proposals crafted by former President Trump, however, required bringing in new data and techniques previously outside the model’s scope.​

​

If you remove their estimates on tariffs, there are no tax increases on any income group.

It remains to be seen what the impact of the tariffs will actually be. While it's true that companies often pass the costs of the tariffs on to the consumer, the real unknown is how companies will respond in general. Will they pass costs on? Will they bring some manufacturing back to the US? I suspect they'll do some combination of both. But only time will tell how that impacts consumers at all income levels.

Do his economic policies excite you? Do you feel optimistic about them?

 

[probinson]

Do his economic policies excite you? Do you feel optimistic about them?

At this point, I am ambivalent. I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic about the economy.

 

[Belk]

I LIKE the gif....but I don't understand the gif.

I just missed the cutoff for the top 5%. By $140K.

 

[essentialsaltes]

I just missed the cutoff for the top 5%.

I'm close, but not Get Smart close.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

I'm close, but not Get Smart close.

I'm more like:

 

[Say it aint so]

It seems to me that the tariffs are the big unknown here. The report even seems to acknowledge that in its methodology section which states:

The bulk of this analysis was conducted using the ITEP Microsimulation Tax Model. The unconventional nature of many of the policy proposals crafted by former President Trump, however, required bringing in new data and techniques previously outside the model’s scope.​

​

If you remove their estimates on tariffs, there are no tax increases on any income group.

It remains to be seen what the impact of the tariffs will actually be. While it's true that companies often pass the costs of the tariffs on to the consumer, the real unknown is how companies will respond in general. Will they pass costs on? Will they bring some manufacturing back to the US? I suspect they'll do some combination of both. But only time will tell how that impacts consumers at all income levels.

The price effects of tariffs and the retaliatory effects of tariffs are experienced, and not an unknown. We went through that last go around with Trump's fire hose tariffs.

 

[Say it aint so]

A Distributional Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan

I'm not much of an accountant type person but I would assume the people at the Institute for TAxation and Economic Policy would be.

Here is what they figure:
View attachment 358412

View attachment 358413


View attachment 358414

With plans to get rid of Biden's actions of enforcing tax collection from those high income delinquent earners, which was increasing revenue coffers, and no real plan to cut spending (look out social security and medicare) I see higher debt which is only a thing when the opposing party is in office. Keep in mind the whole premise of the Trump cuts from the "Tax Cut Jobs Act" was to create jobs. That didn't happen. It just gave cause to historical stock buybacks with some companies not even sure what they were going to do with their new found wealth. It also doubled the number of corporations who paid no effective rate in taxation. That will compound. It's almost like they all fell asleep when they went over the "Robbin Barons" and the "Smoot Hawley Act" or just don't care.

 

[KCfromNC]

The price effects of tariffs and the retaliatory effects of tariffs are experienced, and not an unknown. We went through that last go around with Trump's fire hose tariffs.

Not to mention the budget and deficit hits for the government handouts needed for industries destroyed by them.

But hey, at least rich people get tax cuts. Sorry about your health insurance, but I'm sure it is a compromise the 1% is willing to live with...

 

[ozso]

Thoughts on Trump's tax policy? There's nothing you can do about it.

 

[civilwarbuff]

Sounds like everyone is just guessing in order to have something to criticize. There are other reasons, especially now days, for tariffs.

 

[Paulos23]

For the tariffs, we know what is going to happen. We hit other countries with them, they put tariffs on our goods. Trade goes down, economic activity goes down. People lose jobs.

It will be years before the industrial capacity grows to replace what we get in trade, as well as some unique materials we only get from other places in the world. I expect that everything will go up, mostly because of the tariffs but also because it will present a smoke screen for more corporate greed.

If you are expecting to do something expensive in the next few years, get a loan now and get it done. I don't know how bad it will be if Trump issues tariffs, but I am expecting it to be bad when he does. At least that is what all the experts are saying.

 

[rambot]

Sounds like everyone is just guessing in order to have something to criticize.

No. Not guess. Maybe I'm sensitive to how people use the word "guess". But the ITEP didn't just "guess". They used data, modelling and historical impact to create an hypothesis.

YOUR post, now THAT is a guess.

There are other reasons, especially now days, for tariffs.

Not if tariffs are roundly a negative impact on consumers.

The right has been complaining about unaffordability for the last 4 years.

It's a BAAAAAD look for you guys to suggest that tariffs raising prices isn't a big deal.

Thoughts on Trump's tax policy? There's nothing you can do about it.

ok.

You can still think it will BENEFIT and help America and it's people. Or you can think it'll be disastrous and people will become poorer.

Or you could have an opinion in the middle.

Nope, there's nothing you can do about it. But, if your prognostications are right, you get to tell people you were right.

 

[probinson]

No. Not guess. Maybe I'm sensitive to how people use the word "guess". But the ITEP didn't just "guess". They used data, modelling and historical impact to create an hypothesis.

Yes. An educated guess.

 

[Pommer]

It remains to be seen what the impact of the tariffs will actually be. While it's true that companies often pass the costs of the tariffs on to the consumer, the real unknown is how companies will respond in general. Will they pass costs on? Will they bring some manufacturing back to the US? I suspect they'll do some combination of both. But only time will tell how that impacts consumers at all income levels.

One thing that markets love is uncertainty.