70% Say Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

[xser88]

Facts vs. feelings. Perception vs. reality.
Feelings and perceptions are a way of understanding or interpreting things. Reality and facts are the state of things as they actually exist, rather than as they may be perceived or imagined.

Mainstream corporate media has a lot of influence on how we perceive and feel about things. The violent crime rate dropping is a fact, but corporate media gets more views from negative news, so they give the impression violent crime is rising. Let's look at documented facts found in California. The reality is after reaching a 1992 peak of 1,115 per 100,000 residents, California's violent crime rate steadily fell, reaching a 50-year low of 391 in 2014. At this time, the news was giving a false impression of the reality of the situation. Currently, the FBI published figures showing a 15% decline in overall reported violent crimes during the first quarter of 2024. Specifically, murder and rape were down about 26%, robbery dropped nearly 18%, and aggravated assault decreased more than 12%. Reported property crime also declined by 15%. If mainstream corporate media were honest and reported news accurately, we wouldn't have so many Americans ignorant of facts. Corporate media fails us in being the freedom of the press. They don't just report the truth and facts; they have a self-interested agenda, which is more money. Because corporate media wants Republican policies that allow them to avoid paying their share of taxes, they give false impressions about our current economy under the Democratic Party's leadership.
On whom had the best economy, Republicans have public opinion on their side; the data supports the Democratic Party. Studies show the American economy and people are much better off than 4 Years Ago. Fox News would be the biggest perpetrator of networks pushing false narratives for their gain.
They say science proves (again) that watching Fox News makes you dumber than not watching any news at all. Media lying about good news to the public shows again the love of money is the root of all kinds of evils.

 

[trophy33]

Do you have some information that suggest the CPI weekly grocery basket content has changed?

Notably, as consumer spending patterns change, the composition of this basket changes over time.

A CPI Basket Case

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

www.richmondfed.org

Baskets constantly change, the way how CPI is calculated constantly changes, the way how unemployment is calculated changes, the currency value changes... its quite hard to objectively determine if the economy is worsening or getting better just comparing the numbers with the past.

For example:

Is Inflation 5% Or 14%? It Depends On How It's Measured | FedSmith.com

Inflation was raging in 1980 and again in 2022. How the government measures inflation has changed, and you will be amazed at the difference.

www.fedsmith.com

Therefore, the feeling/personal experience of the majority of people seems to be the most reliable one. People, who buy still the same things, report that they are paying 50%,100%, 200% more than few years ago.

 

[wing2000]

Notably, as consumer spending patterns change, the composition of this basket changes over time.

Agreed.

A CPI Basket Case

How can a plethora of individual price changes in the economy be combined into a single number that represents the overall change in the cost of living? The BLS accomplishes this with the CPI.

www.richmondfed.org

Baskets constantly change, the way how CPI is calculated constantly changes, the way how unemployment is calculated changes, the currency value changes... its quite hard to objectively determine if the economy is worsening or getting better just comparing the numbers with the past.

For example:

Is Inflation 5% Or 14%? It Depends On How It's Measured | FedSmith.com

Inflation was raging in 1980 and again in 2022. How the government measures inflation has changed, and you will be amazed at the difference.

www.fedsmith.com

Therefore, the feeling/personal experience of the majority of people seems to be the most reliable one. People, who buy still the same things, report that they are paying 50%,100%, 200% more than few years ago.

...yet consumer spending patterns change overtime There may be some items that are constant (milk, eggs, bananas etc) but I submit consumers do change up other items but would not necessarily be conscientious of that change.

In any case, the point still remains: Average income has gone up in parallel with average price of the grocery cart.

 

[trophy33]

In any case, the point still remains: Average income has gone up in parallel with average price of the grocery cart.

That may be the case, but its saying nothing substantial. If, for example, somebody was buying a beef steak 3 times a week, a lot of milk, fruit etc. and now buys some poor quality fast food industrial chicken and cereals, the quality of his food/health went down, even though the graph can look nice.

However, the person's feelings about the economy will not be good and that is what may be reflected in the surveys like in the OP.

 

[RDKirk]

That may be the case, but its saying nothing substantial. If, for example, somebody was buying a beef steak 3 times a week, a lot of milk, fruit etc. and now buys some poor quality fast food industrial chicken and cereals, the quality of his food/health went down, even though the graph can look nice.

However, the person's feelings about the economy will not be good and that is what may be reflected in the surveys like in the OP.

My wife is very careful and accurate with her food budget (her experience goes back to purchasing for restaurants), and she testifies that the cost of basic foodstuff has definitely skyrocketed over the last 2-3 years.

 

[trophy33]

My wife is very careful and accurate with her food budget (her experience goes back to purchasing for restaurants), and she testifies that the cost of basic foodstuff has definitely skyrocketed over the last 2-3 years.

I do not live in the USA, but I was paying like 100 crowns for groceries a day before COVID and now its about 400 crowns a day. I changed my diet since then, but still the most of it is COVID inflation.

Housing costs me two times more now.

My salary is roughly 2 times higher now, so still far behind the grocery price growth.

It seems to be a global issue everywhere where governments reacted in a similar way to the COVID virus.

 

[wing2000]

My wife is very careful and accurate with her food budget (her experience goes back to purchasing for restaurants), and she testifies that the cost of basic foodstuff has definitely skyrocketed over the last 2-3 years.

No doubt about it.
And those living on fixed incomes have no recourse other than to make different choices.

What I have not seen on this thread is anyone addressing how the price of food should (or can?) be addressed by the next POTUS.

 

[wing2000]

Trump is repeatedly stating that he will reduce interest rates. For the sake of argument, let's say he does (presumably by firing the current Fed Chair and appointing one loyal to his orders).

What impact would lower interest rates have on inflation?

It seems no one wants to address an ecomonic policy question.

Why is that?

 

[trophy33]

What I have not seen on this thread is anyone addressing how the price of food should (or can?) be addressed by the next POTUS.

Perhaps because in a (more or less) free market economy, there is not much a president can do. One thing that can be done is to tame the overgrown money supply, but I do not think its the job of the US president.

 

[Laodicean60]

No doubt about it.
And those living on fixed incomes have no recourse other than to make different choices.

What I have not seen on this thread is anyone addressing how the price of food should (or can?) be addressed by the next POTUS.

According to Investopedia, Covid disruptions, the War in Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia (developing countries are hurt most). I'll add that the Red Sea cluster, all contributes to inflation.

Many fund managers feel inflation will be the new norm and we'll never see the 2% target the Fed is wanting. I think a recession will bring it down temporarily.

Why Are Food Prices Still Rising?

Despite overall inflation slowing down, high prices at the grocery store remain a pain point for consumers. Food prices have risen 11.4% from August 2021 to August 2022, according to the most recent Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly every food item is now

www.forbes.com

 

[trophy33]

I think a recession will bring it down temporarily.

If the central banks will not get the previous ingenious idea to cancel the recession by "printing" more money and governments will not repeat their populist solutions like giving everybody stimulus checks.

 

[Laodicean60]

If the central banks will not get the previous ingenious idea to cancel the recession by "printing" more money and governments will not repeat their populist solutions like giving everybody stimulus checks.

Yep MMT or Keynesian economics use was the greatest blunder by the Federal Reserve and government. If we go into a severe recession or a depression the only way out is to give us stimulus checks and investment into real shovel-ready projects. Our politicians would have to educate themselves.

 

[timewerx]

No doubt about it.
And those living on fixed incomes have no recourse other than to make different choices.

What I have not seen on this thread is anyone addressing how the price of food should (or can?) be addressed by the next POTUS.

Tell everyone to eat less to reduce food demand and hopefully, lower prices. It will be good for health too.

I think the problem we're seeing is that the world is making more money (economy might actually be improving) but this increased money flow is only being exchanged by a smaller % of the world's population.

What this means for most people is that prices will be higher due to increased demand in all products but with increase in income that does not match the increase in cost of living. Indeed it is entirely possible to have the economy improve while standard of living deteriorate for most if the increased economic activity is only exchanged between smaller % of the population.

Consumerism is bringing irreversible negative patterns for most people. People who are profiting from the broken system don't care as long they have their comfort. They are complete idiots for thinking they are making the world a better place. But the fact is we can't all be rich, there's not enough resources to satisfy the indulgences of everyone.

Interestingly, some countries in the European Union don't seem to have this problem.

There's only one way this madness will resolve itself if people can't get over the addiction of consumerism. War. It is going to be inevitable.

 

[RDKirk]

I do not live in the USA, but I was paying like 100 crowns for groceries a day before COVID and now its about 400 crowns a day. I changed my diet since then, but still the most of it is COVID inflation.

Housing costs me two times more now.

My salary is roughly 2 times higher now, so still far behind the grocery price growth.

It seems to be a global issue everywhere where governments reacted in a similar way to the COVID virus.

I don't know why some people think a government-induced depression wouldn't have lasting effect.

 

[FreeinChrist]

ADVISOR HAT

A small clean up was done in the thread. Do not goad each other.​

 

[probinson]

Seems like maybe the 70% that think things are getting worse might not be so crazy after all...

Global markets slid Monday as fears of a slowing U.S. economy sparked investor angst, resulting in some of the most intense volatility Wall Street has seen in years.​

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Investors were rattled by a trickle of disappointing economic data last week, including a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed nearly 1,034 points, or 2.6 percent, and closed at 38,703.27. The broader S&P 500 lost 3.0 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index lost 3.4 percent as wariness around artificial intelligence led investors to turn away from big names such as Nvidia and Microsoft.​

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/05/japan-stock-market-crash/

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[probinson]

What this goes to show is that things are great, right up until the moment they're not.

"The economy is great! All economic indicators are pointing up! Those people who think the economy is doing poorly are just misinformed. Oh, what's that you say? You just lost $50,000 out your 401k? Ah well. At least the economy is looking up!"

 

[trophy33]

Investors were rattled by a trickle of disappointing economic data last week, including a weaker-than-expected jobs report.

​

It may be useful to specify that the new jobs report was not only "weaker than expected", but significantly weaker (114,000 vs 185,000).

Also, huge portions of new payrolls were in healthcare or government jobs, which is a bit controversial benefit for the economy.

Also, how many of the new jobs are only part-time, is hard to say.

 

[BCP1928]

Yes, there would have to be a recession where people could not afford groceries and gas and stopped buying them for prices to come down

That's the right-wing strategy, but there are other solutions.

 

[BCP1928]

What this goes to show is that things are great, right up until the moment they're not.

"The economy is great! All economic indicators are pointing up! Those people who think the economy is doing poorly are just misinformed. Oh, what's that you say? You just lost $50,000 out your 401k? Ah well. At least the economy is looking up!"

That particular line of argument has become a cliche. Can't you do better?