70% Say Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

[KCfromNC]

I heard GDP was a healthy 2.8% last quarter, tell us again why that’s “bad”.

Need to know who is in the White House before answering.

Edit - you know, like when figuring out if deficits matter or not.

 

[KCfromNC]

I did not study this specific number in that specific quarter, but one can imagine various scenarios in which GDP grows, but the economy can do worse.

For example huge social/health services expenditures. War. Wrong kind of government investments. Too much debt. Unjust distribution of wealth. Worse social mobility. A need to work more to keep the same standard of living. Hidden inflation. Environmental pollution (hidden costs), hidden unemployment. Etc.

Or it could just be that the economy is relatively strong.

 

[probinson]

Sentiment is an important thing to consider, but it’s separate from actual economic performance and it’s rather easy to manipulate.

It's also all that really matters in an election. Everyone in marketing learns that perception is reality. And since a campaign is basically one gigantic marketing strategy, the incumbent party has a real issue on their hands

Think about perceptions of crime: lots of people think crime is out of control, but aside from a bit of an uptick during the pandemic (that’s mostly corrected itself afaik), crime rates have been falling for 40 years. Why do people think that things are bad? Because they see a couple of problem areas get amplified by a media that’s incentivized to exaggerate those problems, and then incorrectly extrapolate those problems to the rest of society. After all, if the area around Oakland Airport is having a crime spike, then the entire country must be experiencing a spike, right?

Yes, but when we're talking about how the economy affects you, it's very different than how you perceive crime based on hearsay.

That’s not correct. People are easily influenced by things they see and things they hear about. Worry about the future doesn’t mean things are bad right now; it means people aren’t confident in the future.

I guess so. But pretending like it's not an issue that 70% of people perceive the economy poorly is a losing strategy for the incumbent party.

 

[iluvatar5150]

It's also all that really matters in an election.

Everyone in marketing learns that perception is reality. And since a campaign is basically one gigantic marketing strategy, the incumbent party has a real issue on their hands

I'm aware. But is the point of the thread to point out how the Harris campaign has a PR problem or is it to point out that there's an economic problem?

Yes, but when we're talking about how the economy affects you, it's very different than how you perceive crime based on hearsay.

Not quite. The questions asked weren't about how the economy affects the people being polled; they were about how the people being polled thought the economy was doing as a whole, which is a different question. A person can be fine individually while still thinking that things are bad for those around them. I can't seem to find the stats right now, but from what I've heard, polling that asks about individual economic conditions suggests a bifurcation between "how I'm doing" and "how I think others are doing." To go back to the crime analogy - the people who care most about murder rates are the folks who haven't yet been murdered. Admittedly, that's a bit cheeky, but I hope it illustrates the difference between "what is happening to me" and "what I fear will happen".

I guess so. But pretending like it's not an issue that 70% of people perceive the economy poorly is a losing strategy for the incumbent party.

I hope nobody thinks it's not an issue at all, but addressing the problem of "the economy is bad for 70% of Americans" is different than addressing the problem of "70% of Americans think the economy is bad, even though roughly half of them are probably doing fine."

 

[trophy33]

Or it could just be that the economy is relatively strong.

It could. But it would be a bit weird, when most people do not think so. There can be a lot of bias and manipulation in the way how the official numbers are calculated, for political reasons.

If we do not see how exactly they came to the numbers, from raw data, its just based on the trust they are correct. Its a black box.

A considerable number of recent analyses report statistical evidence indicating that governments manipulate official macroeconomic indicators.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09692290.2020.1769704

Over the years, the methodology used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions.

Why Is the Consumer Price Index Controversial?

The Consumer Price Index is a widely quoted measure of inflation in the United States, but the methodology used to calculate it generates controversy among economists.

www.investopedia.com

Its even a bigger mess when we want to compare different countries. Every country has its own way how to calculate (manipulate?) macroeconomic indicators and its own set of constant changes and revisions. So its apples and oranges and of a different kind every year.

Therefore, in the end, the sentiment/feeling of people can actually be the most reliable, decentralized indicator.

 

[durangodawood]

70% Say Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse​

Presidents make certain decisions that have an effect on the economy. But for the most part the economy responds much more to events and situations outside the scope of the presidency.

 

[probinson]

Presidents make certain decisions that have an effect on the economy. But for the most part the economy responds much more to events and situations outside the scope of the presidency.

That's true. But if 70% had said Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' economy was getting better, you can bet Democrats would be talking victory laps.

 

[KCfromNC]

It could. But it would be a bit weird, when most people do not think so. There can be a lot of bias and manipulation in the way how the official numbers are calculated, for political reasons.

It is weird that there's an understanding that official numbers might be manipulated, but not the news reporting them to right wing voters.

 

[trophy33]

It is weird that there's an understanding that official numbers might be manipulated, but not the news reporting them to right wing voters.

Not sure what you mean. What does it have to do with right wing voters or with voting in general? Every government wants to look good, it does not matter what party or parties it is composed of.

 

[Always in His Presence]

The 70% that answered "worse," were wrong.

Based on what linkable facts are you saying that 245,000,000 Americans are wrong?

 

[trophy33]

Even though its plausible that 70% of voters could be manipulated into thinking that economy is getting worse by a specific media, in the real world its quite difficult - there are tons of media channels, contradicting news, many narratives, decentralized/uncontrolled media like youtube channels, many people actually think for themselves etc.

Its more probable that a central agency presents more optimistic numbers, than that hundreds of millions people were somehow persuaded that their economic situation is worse, while its better.

Probabilities vs possibilities.

But I do not want to make it political. First, I do not think that political parties have as much control over markets and economy as they pretend to have, second I think that any political party is able and frequently willing to manipulate numbers.

Its also worth noting that 51% of American voters are registered as "independent", therefore they do not seem to be fanatically for one party and against another.

 

[Always in His Presence]

From CBS:

They say a picture is worth 1,00 words

 

[Pommer]

I did not study this specific number in that specific quarter, but one can imagine various scenarios in which GDP grows, but the economy can do worse.

For example huge social/health services expenditures. War. Wrong kind of government investments. Too much debt. Unjust distribution of wealth. Worse social mobility. A need to work more to keep the same standard of living. Hidden inflation. Environmental pollution (hidden costs), hidden unemployment. Etc.

These are and always have been the flaws of capitalism, the government should try to have as little to do with the economy as possible, (while at the same time recognizing that all of government spending is ~28% of GDP) and protecting the people and the environments people depend upon to live, as well as their right to such.

How well or how poorly an Administration regulates the government can cause the effects of government spending (or tax-cuts), throughout the rest of the economy.

Also, when the numbers are a bit magical, for example when the way how inflation or employment or GDP is calculated is constantly changing. Or when the optimistic numbers are revised down after some time, but people do not check it again.

This might suggest that Federal Agencies are “fudging-the-numbers” to help a certain Presidential Candidate.
If they did that, they’d all be fired, how many have been fired?

If the real inflation is higher than the current official one (which is what most Americans seem to be feeling), for example by just 3%, then the real GDP can be actually below zero - a recession one.

Special Pleading.

 

[Pommer]

From CBS:

They say a picture is worth 1,00 words

Yeah I remember when eggs went up to $8/doz, due to bird flu that decimated whole flocks either through sickness or prophylactic culls, and is definitely the fault of the the Biden Administration (somehow).

 

[trophy33]

If they did that, they’d all be fired, how many have been fired?

They would all be fired? Fired by whom? Its not "to help a specific candidate". Its rather to help the whole establishment, to support optimism in economy etc.

Some experts argue the official measure of inflation (the CPI) is not accurate and does not reflect the true cost of living for most Americans. They claim that the CPI understates inflation by using flawed methods and assumptions...

According to some alternative measures of inflation, such as the ShadowStats Index, the actual inflation rate is much higher than the official CPI.
For example, as noted above, in March 2023, the CPI showed an annual inflation rate of 5%, while the ShadowStats Index showed 14.1%.

Is Inflation 5% Or 14%? It Depends On How It's Measured | FedSmith.com

Inflation was raging in 1980 and again in 2022. How the government measures inflation has changed, and you will be amazed at the difference.

www.fedsmith.com

 

[trophy33]

Special Pleading.

Not in this context.

 

[JustOneWay]

Based on what linkable facts are you saying that 245,000,000 Americans are wrong?

The poll asked 1,010 people, not 245,000,000.

Do you know how polls work?

 

[KCfromNC]

Not sure what you mean.

I can simplify : right wing news says not true things to trick people. Some of those things are claims that the true things aren't true.

 

[Hazelelponi]

Nolte: 70% Say Kamala Harris’s Economy Is Getting Worse

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling.

www.breitbart.com

Seventy percent of adults say the economy under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris is getting worse, according to polling from Gallup. Between July 1 and 21, 2024, Gallup surveyed 1,010 adults and found that only 24 percent believe the economy is getting better. At the beginning of 2024, in February, only 61 percent said the economy was getting worse, while 32 percent said the economy was getting better. Since then, those numbers have all slid in the wrong direction. “Economic Confidence Index registers -35 in July,” reports Gallup, which is “stable compared with the past two months and consistent with the longer trend of negative public sentiment about the current and future American economy."

I don't know if this fits perse in this thread but do you follow Schweikert on the economy?

He's fascinating to listen to and he gave yet another presentation before Congress the other day.

One of the points he makes in this video is every dime of spending that Congress votes on is borrowed money. We don't bring enough money in to run the country anymore , not as big as the government has now become. We have too much interest and too much debt. So all government spending that is voted on is borrowed... (Plus more)

Printing money is a bad thing, the more we print and borrow the less our dollars are actually worth....

That comes into play at the gas pump, at the grocery store etc.

Some of inflation is all the additional regulations that have been placed on American businesses by this Administration, but some in my opinion comes from not living within our means as a nation.

 

[trophy33]

I can simplify : right wing news says not true things to trick people. Some of those things are claims that the true things aren't true.

Thats possible (however, I would not say its just true about "right wing news" - almost any profit-based source tries to trick people one way or another, to get paid).

I do not see what does it have to do with the topic, though - that most Americans feel the economy is worse than the numbers indicate. Either the majority is wrong or the numbers are wrong. Left or right has nothing to do with it.