How Michigan Turned Blue in '22--by ending gerrymandering

[Fantine]

Democracy has finally caught up with Michigan Republicans | Opinion (yahoo.com)

Diluting the Democratic vote
The stage for Tuesday's historic GOP defeat was set four years ago, when Michigan voters overwhelmingly approved a state constitutional amendment that wrested the authority to draw congressional and legislative boundaries from state lawmakers and vested it in a new citizens redistricting commission composed of voters were drawn from both parties.

When the process became fair, Michigan's representation was based on what the voters actually wanted, instead of legislators' wishes to tilt the equation as far in their favor as they could.

And perhaps Michiganders, having been deprived of fair districts for so long, decided to tell their legislators "it's payback time," turning both Houses blue. The state Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority, and every major state office is held by Democrats.

It sounds like the polar opposite of my red red red red state, which made its boundaries even more unfair, despite having a solid lock on every single state office and branch of government.

We did have a redistricting amendment up a few years ago, but I believe the Secretary of State and Supreme Court said that there was something wrong with the wording (a ploy to prevent learning what citizens really want.)

But Michigan gives me hope. Michigan voters, you rock! I look forward to many positive changes in your state.

I'm jealous.

 

[Sketcher]

If they stay in power, it will become the political equivalent of the Detroit Lions over the last 65 years.

 

[Fantine]

If they stay in power, it will become the political equivalent of the Detroit Lions over the last 65 years.

If they stay in power it will be due to fairly drawn districts that are not manipulated in order for any party to gain advantage.
Therefore, if they don't stay in power, it will be due to those same fairly drawn districts.
I am a Democrat but I am less interested in the outcome of fairly drawn districts than I am in the process.
It may seem that Republicans are being accused of extreme gerrymandering--because 8 out of 9 extreme gerrymandering cases were in Republican-led states. Democratic majority Maryland also deserves criticism.

 

[Nithavela]

If they stay in power, it will become the political equivalent of the Detroit Lions over the last 65 years.

So nice of republicans to prevent people from voting for another party for their own good.

 

[Ana the Ist]

If they stay in power it will be due to fairly drawn districts that are not manipulated in order for any party to gain advantage.
Therefore, if they don't stay in power, it will be due to those same fairly drawn districts.
I am a Democrat but I am less interested in the outcome of fairly drawn districts than I am in the process.
It may seem that Republicans are being accused of extreme gerrymandering--because 8 out of 9 extreme gerrymandering cases were in Republican-led states. Democratic majority Maryland also deserves criticism.

What's a fairly drawn district?

That's always been the central problem for me regarding gerrymandering. I don't see that much difference between a fairly drawn one and an unfairly drawn one.

What's the goal when drawing a district?

 

[Ana the Ist]

So nice of republicans to prevent people from voting for another party for their own good.

Everyone here is poorer than 2 years ago....with about 4 million newly arrived poor, it's hard to imagine what good will come of it.

 

[Brihaha]

What's the goal when drawing a district?

I think they try to pack as many opposite party voters into the same district to reduce their voting power in neighboring districts. Or dilute their power by spreading the votes out over several districts. It usually helps incumbents I think.

 

[FenderTL5]

What's a fairly drawn district?

That's always been the central problem for me regarding gerrymandering. I don't see that much difference between a fairly drawn one and an unfairly drawn one.

What's the goal when drawing a district?

A fairly drawn district would meet the criteria of having the correct number of citizens represented (all districts within the state being roughly the same size numericly) and be geographically centered as possible.

The goals when drawing a district are as varied as the state legislatures. An example could be; sometimes there is a goal to create a minority district, sometimes there is a goal to eliminte a minority district.

The 2020 version in our state, one goal was to eliminate representation from the state's largest city. (the state legislature and the city have a quasi fued that has been taking place for years over a variety of topics, such as funding for a new sports stadium. The city refused to allocate taxpayer money - the state is forcing the city to do so).
The city was split into three segments, then the boundaries were extended to the NE, NW, and South as far as possible to ensure that the city's three representatives came from rural communities miles from the city itself. Thus flipping one democratic seat into three republican seats.

 

[chevyontheriver]

But Michigan gives me hope. Michigan voters, you rock! I look forward to many positive changes in your state.

I'm jealous.

Michigan voters have approved abortion without restriction. Positive changes?

 

[Fantine]

In NC, for example, i believe there are 9 Congressional districts. 7 of them are represented by Republicans although the state is almost 50% Democratic. Districts were drawn with surgical precision to create Republican demographic majorities in as many districts as possible. The same procedure was used in state senate and assembly districts.
Now that Michigan has districts set fairly, they are expected to end its right to work status and bring back unions. Will wonders never cease? When Reagan busted the Air Traffic Controllers Union in the 1980's the middle class began to disappear.

 

[Saucy]

Oh no, it's unfair when Republicans win, but fair when Democrats do. As if removing the lines they've had for 40 years wasn't, in turn, unfairly rewriting the districts to favor Democrats so they win. Trust me, I live here. Michigan is mostly Republican minus a few of the big cities in the south. The fact that Democrats have control after 40 years is not a fair reality.

And unions are what made companies like GM flee this state and turn Detroit, Flint, and Pontiac into the crime-ridden destitute places they are today. Great job Democrats! You're making things worse for everybody.

 

[Fantine]

Democrats are not redrawing districts to their advantage. From now on, in perpetuity districts will be drawn by bipartisan committees and will be drawn fairly. That may mean that Michigan may have more Republicans in the future and these fair districts might have more Republican voters.
That being said I am fed up with people in rural areas complaining about how people in the cities shouldn't have same representation they do. The city with a million people doesn't occupy a lot of land, but that doesn't mean that those million people aren't deserving of just as much representation as you are. Constitutional innovations like the electoral college and the Senate with two senators from states of every size also tilt the balance towards more representation for rurals voters. So don't complain. You have an edge. Things were made more fair in Michigan but you still have an edge. You should be grateful that you live in a fair state.

 

[FenderTL5]

In NC, for example, i believe there are 9 Congressional districts. 7 of them are represented by Republicans although the state is almost 50% Democratic. Districts were drawn with surgical precision to create Republican demographic majorities in as many districts as possible. The same procedure was used in state senate and assembly districts.
Now that Michigan has districts set fairly, they are expected to end its right to work status and bring back unions. Will wonders never cease? When Reagan busted the Air Traffic Controllers Union in the 1980's the middle class began to disappear.

EXHIBIT A

 

[essentialsaltes]

To provide the flip side to this, the Democratic drawn map in New York was rejected by the courts as illegal gerrymandering. The GOP has apparently picked up 4 seats in New York.

• A New York court's decision on congressional maps has given the GOP hope to retake the House.
• New York's highest court rejected an attempt by state Democrats to redraw the congressional maps months ago.
• In the blue state, Republicans saw significant wins in Tuesday's midterm elections.

 

[probinson]

Oh no, it's unfair when Republicans win, but fair when Democrats do.

Thanks for summarizing this thread.

 

[Hank77]

Democracy has finally caught up with Michigan Republicans | Opinion (yahoo.com)



When the process became fair, Michigan's representation was based on what the voters actually wanted, instead of legislators' wishes to tilt the equation as far in their favor as they could.

And perhaps Michiganders, having been deprived of fair districts for so long, decided to tell their legislators "it's payback time," turning both Houses blue. The state Supreme Court has a 4-3 Democratic majority, and every major state office is held by Democrats.

It sounds like the polar opposite of my red red red red state, which made its boundaries even more unfair, despite having a solid lock on every single state office and branch of government.

We did have a redistricting amendment up a few years ago, but I believe the Secretary of State and Supreme Court said that there was something wrong with the wording (a ploy to prevent learning what citizens really want.)

But Michigan gives me hope. Michigan voters, you rock! I look forward to many positive changes in your state.

I'm jealous.

As of 2018, Colorado uses an independent commission to draw congressional districts, and a similar independent commission to draw state legislative districts.


1050 qualified applicants were randomly selected for each commission (here are the lists for congressional districts and state legislative districts); a panel of retired judges then drew from this selection to create a pool of 150 nominees for each commission (here are the lists for congressional districts and state legislative districts). The judges’ panel then randomly chose 6 commissioners for each commission (congressional districts and state legislative districts). The four legislative leaders each put forward further applicants (congressional districts and state legislative districts); from the legislative leaders’ pools, the judges’ panel then chose the final 6 commissioners.

Colorado - All About Redistricting

 

[Ana the Ist]

I think they try to pack as many opposite party voters into the same district to reduce their voting power in neighboring districts. Or dilute their power by spreading the votes out over several districts. It usually helps incumbents I think.

Ok...I probably should have stated that question more carefully...

What's the goal in drawing a fair district?

Like you just described the unfair process....if we spread a certain party's voters too thin...or too densely...those are both unfair scenarios?

Are we looking for a 50/50 split? Because even then a 1% difference can be "unfair". I'm also not sure what the point is in a 50/50 split unless we want to create havoc at the voting locations.

See what I mean? Given the Democratic Party's current racial views....I'd think that if anything, you'd want to draw districts along racial lines at least in some scenarios, just to ensure "diversity" because of the common left wing belief that certain races are best represented (and want to vote for) by someone who looks like them.

 

[Fantine]

Ok...I probably should have stated that question more carefully...

What's the goal in drawing a fair district?

Like you just described the unfair process....if we spread a certain party's voters too thin...or too densely...those are both unfair scenarios?

Are we looking for a 50/50 split? Because even then a 1% difference can be "unfair". I'm also not sure what the point is in a 50/50 split unless we want to create havoc at the voting locations.

See what I mean? Given the Democratic Party's current racial views....I'd think that if anything, you'd want to draw districts along racial lines at least in some scenarios, just to ensure "diversity" because of the common left wing belief that certain races are best represented (and want to vote for) by someone who looks like them.

You are not looking for a 50/50 split. Some states are 65% Republican and 35% Democratic (like mine, ugh!!) But even my state has been gerrymandered over and over. Our legislature is 25% Democratic in both houses, and a concerted attempt was made to redistrict our one local Democratic representative out by swapping out some black voters and putting them into a district that was very Republican, putting in enough Republicans in his to give them a clean sweep of 5 assembly districts.

So in North Carolina (where some anti-democracy statistician wrote the book on how to cheat by redistricting in 2009) where it might be 51% red, 49% blue, if districts were drawn fairly there would be 5 R Congressmen and 4 D ones. Not 7 R's and 2 D's. That's the damage of unfair districts.

 

[Fantine]

Thanks for summarizing this thread.

Ah, so you think that extremely complex issues can be reduced to misleading soundbites?
The tragic flaw of most Republican voters.

 

[Ana the Ist]

View attachment 323051
EXHIBIT A

Thanks Fender,

I think you did a good job of explaining the goal. When I look at the first example of "fair" its something that looks comically bad. Campaigns can be done away with, candidates need not listen to voters, parties simply would select the candidate and 95% of voters can stay home....an almost farcical version of democracy.

The second fair example makes sense....and seems fair....unless you're actually one of the minority party voters in the opposite party's district. In which case, your vote will probably never ever matter.

And this is again "fair" because the same thing is happening in another district to voters of another party. In essence, a significant percentage of voters become disenfranchised long term.

Wouldn't it make sense to....in the case of NC for example who has 9 districts....if the vote came out 51% Dem, 49% Rep....award the top 5 Democratic candidates the seats, and the top 4 Republicans the others?

That way everyone's vote counts.