Ukraine and War

Pavel Mosko

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Russia is moving troops to the border of Ukraine where there may be an invasion and the US & NATO could be drawn into a war.

What do you think of the potential problem?




Probably one time I would be OK to not take the bait and be drawn into a war over a major invasion (over the fear that not intervening is going to encourage something worse in the future).

In general I think bringing Ukraine into NATO was a mistake for a number of reasons

1) Supply lines is the biggest obvious reason. Having to fight another nation that is a major power / former super power across the globe and on their front door step is not a good position to be in, especially if you want to decrease our military spending and involvement around the World.


2) History etc. the fact that this territory was under Russian Control for centuries makes that even more problematic (They are more likely to fight for it).


3) the Territory has strategic importance to Russia giving it access to the Mediterranean, which also important because their other sea routes are vulnerable to blockade, artic conditions etc. Besides adding to their already considerable oil supply.


4) The fact that Russia has the largest and most modernized nuclear arsenal (surpassing ours a few years back), another consideration.


5) We have interests in the Artic as a future resource, maybe not so much with the "New Green Deal" folks but the Artic is thought to hold lots of oil reserves and other resources, besides fishing, and Global Warming actually raises the possibility of using it as naval short cut in the future.

Anyway I see the possibility to the US, Canada and Russia working together in a partnership for that, as opposed to fighting and competing for the North Pole region, and with the challenges of the harsh temperatures I think that makes sense when it comes to logistics, infrastructure etc.
 

disciple Clint

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Russia is moving troops to the border of Ukraine where there may be an invasion and the US & NATO could be drawn into a war.

What do you think of the potential problem?




Probably one time I would be OK to not take the bait and be drawn into a war over a major invasion (over the fear that not intervening is going to encourage something worse in the future).

In general I think bringing Ukraine into NATO was a mistake for a number of reasons

1) Supply lines is the biggest obvious reason. Having to fight another nation that is a major power / former super power across the globe and on their front door step is not a good position to be in, especially if you want to decrease our military spending and involvement around the World.


2) History etc. the fact that this territory was under Russian Control for centuries makes that even more problematic (They are more likely to fight for it).


3) the Territory has strategic importance to Russia giving it access to the Mediterranean, which also important because their other sea routes are vulnerable to blockade, artic conditions etc. Besides adding to their already considerable oil supply.


4) The fact that Russia has the largest and most modernized nuclear arsenal (surpassing ours a few years back), another consideration.


5) We have interests in the Artic as a future resource, maybe not so much with the "New Green Deal" folks but the Artic is thought to hold lots of oil reserves and other resources, besides fishing, and Global Warming actually raises the possibility of using it as naval short cut in the future.

Anyway I see the possibility to the US, Canada and Russia working together in a partnership for that, as opposed to fighting and competing for the North Pole region, and with the challenges of the harsh temperatures I think that makes sense when it comes to logistics, infrastructure etc.
I think we can attribute this problem to the weakness displayed by the current administration. I also think China will take advantage of any crisis that ensues.
 
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JimR-OCDS

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The Biden administration will throw money at the Russians and Ukrainians to try and
prevent them from going to war.

Personally, I think our involvement is foolish and I don't trust the Ukrainian government
anymore than I trust the Russians.

Remember they impeached Trump supposedly because he held back the funding
Congress approved for the Ukrainian Government which was the most corrupt on
earth at the time the approved it, with Biden's help. The impeachment was nothing
but a political stunt during an election season.
 
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Aussie Pete

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Russia is moving troops to the border of Ukraine where there may be an invasion and the US & NATO could be drawn into a war.

What do you think of the potential problem?




Probably one time I would be OK to not take the bait and be drawn into a war over a major invasion (over the fear that not intervening is going to encourage something worse in the future).

In general I think bringing Ukraine into NATO was a mistake for a number of reasons

1) Supply lines is the biggest obvious reason. Having to fight another nation that is a major power / former super power across the globe and on their front door step is not a good position to be in, especially if you want to decrease our military spending and involvement around the World.


2) History etc. the fact that this territory was under Russian Control for centuries makes that even more problematic (They are more likely to fight for it).


3) the Territory has strategic importance to Russia giving it access to the Mediterranean, which also important because their other sea routes are vulnerable to blockade, artic conditions etc. Besides adding to their already considerable oil supply.


4) The fact that Russia has the largest and most modernized nuclear arsenal (surpassing ours a few years back), another consideration.


5) We have interests in the Artic as a future resource, maybe not so much with the "New Green Deal" folks but the Artic is thought to hold lots of oil reserves and other resources, besides fishing, and Global Warming actually raises the possibility of using it as naval short cut in the future.

Anyway I see the possibility to the US, Canada and Russia working together in a partnership for that, as opposed to fighting and competing for the North Pole region, and with the challenges of the harsh temperatures I think that makes sense when it comes to logistics, infrastructure etc.
Russia has delusions of grandeur and has never got over the end of the USSR. Ukrainians welcomed the German invaders at first. They saw hope that they would be delivered from Russian oppression. They were wrong, of course. Hitler made a huge mistake by treating Ukrainians so badly. They could have won the war for him.

It's the same old story. Either you defend what is right or you capitulate to the bullies. If Europe had stood up to Germany in the 30's, WW2 would not have happened. Wishing and hoping is not a strategy for maintaining peace. NATO needs to defend Ukraine.

A similar thing is happening with China. They are threatening Taiwan, ignoring international law and building up their armed forces. The Chinese respect strength, not weakness and appeasement is exactly the wrong strategy. Australia's current government is aware of this and is taking step to let the Chinese know that we will not be bullied.

Nukes are highly unlikely to be used. No one wins a nuclear war. Russia knows all too well the long term effects of radiation with the Chernobyl disaster. France, the UK and the US could turn most of Russia into a car park that glows in the dark. Sure, Russia could return the favour. But for what? Then there is the prospect of nuclear winter, which will send the world back to the stone age at best.
 
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Aussie Pete

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Half the Ukraine had been under Austrian rule shortly before.
After WW1, Europe was a mess. Poland was divided between Russia and Germany. WW1 created all kinds of inequities. The one thing that did not matter was the people. One barbaric dictator is the same as another. Stalin and Hitler were just as bad. Poland was not truly independent until 1989 and Ukraine 1991. Putin would very much like to restore the USSR. Europe dreads the idea. Hence NATO. If NATO does nothing to protect Ukraine, what's to stop Putin from taking over Eastern Europe again?
 
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timothyu

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After WW1, Europe was a mess.
Northern Ukraine was already part of Austria before the turn of the 20th century but they were free and able to emigrate etc.. The genocide of 8 million + Ukrainians called Holodomor under a Jewish general of Russia happened in the early 1930's.
 
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SoldierOfTheKing

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It's the same old story. Either you defend what is right or you capitulate to the bullies.

russian-bare-ukraine.jpg
 
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Arcangl86

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I seriously doubt that Putin will openly invade. Even the previous invasion of Ukraine was done in a way that was plausibly deniable. Moving 90k troops over the border won't have even that fig leaf. Of course the question is then how NATO will respond, because Ukraine is not a current NATO member, though it has expressed interest.
 
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disciple Clint

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Jermayn

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Russia is moving troops to the border of Ukraine where there may be an invasion and the US & NATO could be drawn into a war.

What do you think of the potential problem?




Probably one time I would be OK to not take the bait and be drawn into a war over a major invasion (over the fear that not intervening is going to encourage something worse in the future).

In general I think bringing Ukraine into NATO was a mistake for a number of reasons

1) Supply lines is the biggest obvious reason. Having to fight another nation that is a major power / former super power across the globe and on their front door step is not a good position to be in, especially if you want to decrease our military spending and involvement around the World.


2) History etc. the fact that this territory was under Russian Control for centuries makes that even more problematic (They are more likely to fight for it).


3) the Territory has strategic importance to Russia giving it access to the Mediterranean, which also important because their other sea routes are vulnerable to blockade, artic conditions etc. Besides adding to their already considerable oil supply.


4) The fact that Russia has the largest and most modernized nuclear arsenal (surpassing ours a few years back), another consideration.


5) We have interests in the Artic as a future resource, maybe not so much with the "New Green Deal" folks but the Artic is thought to hold lots of oil reserves and other resources, besides fishing, and Global Warming actually raises the possibility of using it as naval short cut in the future.

Anyway I see the possibility to the US, Canada and Russia working together in a partnership for that, as opposed to fighting and competing for the North Pole region, and with the challenges of the harsh temperatures I think that makes sense when it comes to logistics, infrastructure etc.

The US would crush Russia by themselves in direct conflict.
 
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Hazelelponi

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The US would crush Russia by themselves in direct conflict.

We couldn't manage to "crush" a bunch of under-armed men running around the desert living as if it's 600AD, and you think we can hold our own, with a populous that is sick of endless war, against a nuclear power while we are in economic collapse?

Lol...
 
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Jermayn

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We couldn't manage to "crush" a bunch of under-armed men running around the desert living as if it's 600AD, and you think we can hold our own, with a populous that is sick of endless war, against a nuclear power while we are in economic collapse?

Lol...

That was by design. We could have ended the Taliban years ago if we wanted. Most of the "war" that's happing around the world is just a game for politicians and billionaires. This war will most likely be the same. A few people are going to get very rich off this.
 
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