If Russia invades the Ukraine...

[mindlight]

If Russia invades Ukraine what should the NATO response be?

Why do you hold the view you do?

 

[Confused-by-christianity]

I hate saying this, I don't want it, but I think we should push them out and do it hard, so hard that Putin loses credibility.

The reason I think this is that Putin is genuinely dangerous to us all...
The following:
1) Extending his stay in charge longer and longer - His time running the nation is basically indefinate now.
2) He is outright oppressing his own people (I'm refering to his jailing of political opponents).
3) He poisoned people - with nerve agent. That's a clear message of aggression.

 

[Nithavela]

Nuke em! It's the end of the world as we know it (and who enjoys that world, anyway?)!

 

[2PhiloVoid]

If Russia invades Ukraine what should the NATO response be?

Why do you hold the view you do?

"Nuke em"? Seriously? That shouldn't even be an option on the OP survey, not even as a joke.

 

[Confused-by-christianity]

"Nuke em"? Seriously? That shouldn't even be an option on the OP survey, not even as a joke.

You'd hope to keep the ordinary russian people out of the matter.

Putin is a character who I think is getting nastier and nastier - how could we make a clear statement to him - that he will not be invading anyone or poisoning people any longer??

I have no idea (although nuking people isn't good)

 

[tampasteve]

Under the current administration I cannot see any sort of military action for Ukraine aside from possibly supplying aid or weapons on credit/donation, and even that is doubtful. Financial sanctions are a given in this kind of issue.

 

[mindlight]

"Nuke em"? Seriously? That shouldn't even be an option on the OP survey, not even as a joke.

It is an option but not one I would vote for. The only guy who voted for this option was joking by the way.

 

[Petros2015]

I went for #2 Full On, but it's very very important to communicate that will be the response ahead of time and coordinate the ducks in a row so it actually looks like it will happen or it won't be a deterrent and then it WILL happen which is not good because #2 can lead quickly to #1.

#3 and #4 won't deter or slow things down much after the fact

I think he's probably going to take it in the end.
I'm not sure why he really wants it though?
Figure out what's motivating him, and have a talk.
He strikes me as interested in maintaining power
And not particularly insane
And he already has plenty of power and personal wealth
"is this trip really necessary?"
But maybe there's something that's making him think it is
Other big players that keep him there only if he does X, etc

 

[mindlight]

I hate saying this, I don't want it, but I think we should push them out and do it hard, so hard that Putin loses credibility.

The reason I think this is that Putin is genuinely dangerous to us all...
The following:
1) Extending his stay in charge longer and longer - His time running the nation is basically indefinate now.
2) He is outright oppressing his own people (I'm refering to his jailing of political opponents).
3) He poisoned people - with nerve agent. That's a clear message of aggression.

Russian politics is not really the best example of democracy but I do think that Russians like this guy and that he has probably done Russia some good after the disaster of the Yeltsin administration. Also, the Russians had a case for taking the Crimea since it was overwhelmingly pro-Russian in outlook. What Putin does not get is that Eastern Europe did not much like being under Russian domination and was glad to be rid of them and his ambitions to reestablish that hegemony are misguided. With Poland and indeed Rumania the case is very clear, but these guys are safe and in NATO. Ukraine is a slightly different case as for much of its history it has been a part of Russia, it is massively corrupt and quite backward also. Many of the people in the West want to become part of the EU to sort these things out many in the East a part of Russia for the same reason. I wonder how hard the Ukrainian army will fight against the Russian military. Personally, I think it needs the space and time to make reforms by itself and maybe a split between East and West is the best long-term solution to the cultural struggle between pro-Russian and pro-EU groups. But a Russian invasion is forcing this decision on the Ukrainian people illegitimately and that is why it should be opposed.

 

[mindlight]

I went for #2 Full On, but it's very very important to communicate that will be the response ahead of time and coordinate the ducks in a row so it actually looks like it will happen or it won't be a deterrent and then it WILL happen which is not good because #2 can lead quickly to #1.

#3 and #4 won't deter or slow things down much after the fact

I think he's probably going to take it in the end.
I'm not sure why he really wants it though?
Figure out what's motivating him, and have a talk.
He strikes me as interested in maintaining power
And not particularly insane
And he already has plenty of power and personal wealth
"is this trip really necessary?"
But maybe there's something that's making him think it is
Other big players that keep him there only if he does X, etc

Part of the impulse for choosing #2 seems to me to be to suggest that Russia has no case re Crimea or Ukraine Eastern provinces and that a Western woke agenda can simply be imposed on Ukraine by the will of the Western nations. I oppose that while not wanting to make it easy for Russia to invade. Ukraine may well split in the long run but that should be their own decision. I do not think that Biden is ideally suited for a game of brinkmanship. Trump would have been scarier and might have even pushed the button. Putin can lose a lot though if he messes with the EU who buy his gas.

 

[tampasteve]

I should note that I would prefer a very strong stance with no question as to what the penalty will be. I would prefer that penalty to be a strong militaristic response, but I just don't think that is really in the cards. I am not sure that NATO or the US have the stomach for that kind of response. The US certainly does not have a President willing to take that kind of strong stance.

Contrast that with Putin who is legitimately popular in Russia and has been leading a desire to throw their weight around the region for decades. He can make the argument that the eastern parts of Ukraine are barely under their control now, are more Russified and Ukrainian, and desire to be a part of Russia.If they can conquest the entire country then I don't see them annexing it, but rather installing a puppet "Republic" and taking the eastern portions.

If outright annexation is not achieved, then a situation like South Ossetia and Abkhazia is likely. Russia can make the claim they are helping the people there and set up more de-facto independent puppet states and we will likely not do anything of consequence.

 

[Confused-by-christianity]

I wonder how hard the Ukrainian army will fight against the Russian military.

I think they are in a way better position than they were during Crimea - but it would be a matter of time before Russia overcame them.

Personally, I think it needs the space and time to make reforms by itself and maybe a split between East and West is the best long-term solution to the cultural struggle between pro-Russian and pro-EU groups.

Yes - perhaps the western powers in the meantime could make it easier for prowesterners to get west and pro easterners to get east??

But a Russian invasion is forcing this decision on the Ukrainian people illegitimately and that is why it should be opposed.

Yes - and, worse of all, I think Putin would do it too.
My friend says they are all talk - I disagree - I think he would do it.

 

[Petros2015]

Part of the impulse for choosing #2 seems to me to be to suggest that Russia has no case re Crimea or Ukraine Eastern provinces and that a Western woke agenda can simply be imposed on Ukraine by the will of the Western nations.

Huh? Part of the impulse for choosing #2 on my part is that mob bosses shouldn't take over their neighbors. I don't see Western woke agenda playing out in Eastern Ukraine or being a part of Putin's calculus (to be fair, I consider it to be a boogeyman conservatives tell their children about before setting the closet door slightly ajar and shutting off the nightlite). I'm sure it's more than that, but I don't think it has anything to do with Eastern Ukraine.

Been wrong before though; we'll see. I pay more attention to tanks than agendas. Tanks are agendas in action. Agendas are inaction in action.

 

[Albion]

Very limited sanctions will be the most that might come in reply to an invasion. Nothing got Russia out of Georgia when she invaded that country. Or from the Crimea when she invaded that part of Ukraine, so it's not going to be any different when we have a spineless administration in Washington and NATO is...well, NATO.

However, Putin is sly enough not to try to annex the whole of Ukraine, which also would take too much time. He'll no doubt do what he's done before and take some of the country only, allowing the existence of a Ukraine to continue. That always gives the West the opportunity to avoid doing anything really meaningful.

 

[Nithavela]

It is an option but not one I would vote for. The only guy who voted for this option was joking by the way.

Or was he?!

 

[High Fidelity]

Financial sanctions on any and all Putin associates. Full seizure of assets. Sanctions against any and all Russian business, export or import.

It will hurt, maybe us more than them, but the sooner Putin loses power the better.

Reliance on Russian natural resources is the only reason firmer action wasn't taken against them for Crimea.

Russia is struggling financially, things like this are a distraction.

 

[Trusting in Him]

Sea Crimea did not turn out particularly well for Putin. Crimea got it's water from Ukraine and Ukraine have cut off the water and it turns out that Russia can't supply enough water too make up what's missing. So Putin is trying to avoid losing face. For Putin maybe normally stupid things now make sense, if it means that he can avoid losing face.

This could become a very bad situation if someone tries to do something really stupid. The caucasion mountains and the urassian stepps to the north are what used to be known as the land of Magog. Check it out! Opps! Is this another step nearer to the Ezekiek 38 / 39 war? This might be a lot more serious than you might be thinking.

 

[Petros2015]

This could become a very bad situation if someone tries to do something really stupid.

Heh. What are the odds of that?
I'd say those dice are pretty loaded lol.

 

[Lost4words]

Nothing will happen. Its just the media spreading fear as usual.

 

[Albion]

We'll bookmark this post for later reference.