If the U.S. is such a free country...

Tom 1

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Ana the Ist

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More likely a reaction to the economic effects of covid, because there has actually been very little actual "defunding" of police anywhere.

I always wonder why people consider the crime increase to be a result of covid and it's economic effect.

Murder isn't typically profitable unless it's during the course of a robbery. The same can be said for attempted murder, assault, assault with a deadly weapon. Violent crimes can be driven by profit...but they aren't typically.

You're correct of course that defunding the police turned into refunding the police in most cases (with a few exceptions) but that wasn't the only problem police were facing. The scrutiny they were under in many cases, coupled with incidents where they were being condemned by politicians and investigated for doing their jobs according to law and policy, resulted in a lot of cops being unsure of whether or not they could do their job without reprisal.

I remember one statistic in Atlanta where a during a time span of two months (I think, maybe only one) they made less than 100 traffic stops and handed out less than 100 tickets. During the same span in 2019, those numbers were in the thousands.

Baltimore went through a similar situation post Freddie Gray.

I think the jump in violent crime is a result of the pressure they were under keeping them from doing their jobs as they would typically.
 
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Ana the Ist

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The US seems to be shackled to its past, and half of the country doesn't want to deal with it.

Some people definitely don't want to let go of the past....if that's what you mean. The past can't be changed....you either accept that it happened or soend your life complaining about it.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Whether it’s violent or not is irrelevant. There are plenty of laws that are punishable by jail time that aren’t violent.

Violent crime tends to result in more time though. A high rate of violent crime compared to other nations is going to inevitably result in a higher rate of incarceration regardless of other factors.

If I had 0 people in prison one year and I send 1000 to jail for murder...those people are still in jail 5 years from that year. If I send another thousand away for murder the next five years....I've got 5000 people in jail, they aren't leaving.

If you compare that to people going to jail for a year or two for nonviolent crimes....5 years later the number of people in jail could be higher than it was at 3 years, or lower. It fluctuates.

That means if violent crimes increases over a period of time (like the 80s and 90s) then so does the prison population....steadily. Nonviolent crimes don't necessarily have the same result. Lots of nonviolent criminals are released every year and nonviolent crime rates would have to dramatically increase to keep a steadily increasing prison population. Violent crime can stay at the same rate year after year to increase the size of the prison population. When the violent crime rate increases....the prison population increases with it.
 
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BNR32FAN

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Violent crime tends to result in more time though. A high rate of violent crime compared to other nations is going to inevitably result in a higher rate of incarceration regardless of other factors.

If I had 0 people in prison one year and I send 1000 to jail for murder...those people are still in jail 5 years from that year. If I send another thousand away for murder the next five years....I've got 5000 people in jail, they aren't leaving.

If you compare that to people going to jail for a year or two for nonviolent crimes....5 years later the number of people in jail could be higher than it was at 3 years, or lower. It fluctuates.

That means if violent crimes increases over a period of time (like the 80s and 90s) then so does the prison population....steadily. Nonviolent crimes don't necessarily have the same result. Lots of nonviolent criminals are released every year and nonviolent crime rates would have to dramatically increase to keep a steadily increasing prison population. Violent crime can stay at the same rate year after year to increase the size of the prison population. When the violent crime rate increases....the prison population increases with it.

You misunderstood to context of my post friend. The person I was replying to was making a point that perjury is punishable by a 4 year sentence but isn’t a violent crime, to which I replied there are many nonviolent crimes that are punishable by being sentenced to prison.
 
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Bradskii

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True, it was a over generalization of a rather complex issue. But if we really want to take a look at the root cause of the "incarceration problem," you have to look at the Democrat strongholds and their policies that perpetuates crime.

Let the rest of us look at them as well. You must have studied this. What have you got to show us?
 
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RDKirk

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love of guns and love of killing are perhaps the products of the same underlying values

Laws are only obeyed by the law-abiding, so gun laws aren't the cure for a love of killing...any more than abortion laws are the cure for unwanted pregnancies.
 
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RDKirk

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Crime.



See above.



It's the crime rate. I doubt you're arguing that criminals should go free....so your question is better framed as "why is the crime rate so high?"

There's a bunch of reasons for that, so realistically it's not a question with one answer. To put things in perspective though....

Back around 2013, 2014, 2015....El Salvador was frequently described as the most dangerous nation in the world that wasn't at war. Although the murder rate has gone up and down...in 2015 it was really bad, they had something like 85 murders per 100k people.

In East St Louis....the murder rate was 96 in 2019 (couldn't find the 2015 numbers) I'd like to tell you that's an anomaly, but that doesn't appear to be the case. In Baltimore it's 55 in 2015. Even if we include the larger part of St Louis....it's still in the mid 60s. Albuquerque is around 15-20. Stockton California is anywhere from 10-20. Detroit, Memphis, New York, Chicago....and many more cities have murder rates anywhere from double to quadruple the national average.

If we just looked at the most violent parts of these cities....like east St Louis or southside Chicago....we'd be looking at some of the most deadly places in the world that aren't at war. The average murder rate of the US is 5 per 100k people. That's still higher than most modern western nations, but it's not ridiculous. That makes it difficult IMO for the average American to understand just how bad some of these places have become.

The other major obstacle is the political/racial component. The racial demographics of these places makes it hard to hold a serious discussion about. Democrats will overemphasize and become outraged by the dozen or so possible murders by police every year...but every time someone tries to discuss the thousands of black on black murders in these places across the nation, they get called a racist or bigot or get accused of trying to distract from the "real issue". In a way, it makes sense because Democrats want to be seen by these communities as defending them from bigotry and racism because they want their votes. In another way though, it's a shame because I don't think we can realistically solve these problems without discussing who they are affecting and their causes...

Causes are complicated and there's no one answer. I think the biggest factor is the creation of the modern criminal gang that took shape in the late 70s and early 80s, and then spread across the nation in the 90s. Sure, things like poverty and population density or the decline of opportunities and proliferation of drugs in these communities also played a part. Those factors are trickier though...because there's also plenty of examples of dense poor populations that have high illegal drug use that don't have the same degree of violence and murder.

Gang culture seems to be the link that takes these other factors and multiplies them to an obscene level. It seems like it creates a level of legitimacy or acceptance to criminal activity that doesn't necessarily exist in other poor, densely populated, drug infested areas.

I know that murder isn't everything when it comes to the prison system. The murder rate does tend to reflect the scope of violent crime in an area though. Violent crime is different from nonviolent crimes...because the prison population tends to stay in prison. Those who committed murder, attempted murder, and assault with a deadly weapon 5 years ago are still in prison today....and will be for many more years. They have a multiplicative effect on crime...they destroy not only their families but the families of their victims and keep the population of a cycle of incarceration.

The problem is, in my opinion, gang culture and it's effects. The same problem happened across the US in the early to mid 1900s...and while prohibition certainly was a big factor in that, it continued well past prohibition because amongst Italians and certainly Sicilians, there was a gang culture.

A culture that created a sense of legitimacy of crime and a level of respect for criminals. In the 80s modern gang culture took root in El Salvador when the illegal El Salvadorans who imitated the gang cultures of the Crips and Bloods of California were deported back to El Salvador.

The gang culture that gives respect and legitimizes the sort of crime that should be shameful and abhorrent needs to change to really solve this issue. If that happens, I think a genuine decrease in the prison population would follow.

Now, you argued with me long and hard in another thread that culture was not the problem.
 
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RDKirk

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I always wonder why people consider the crime increase to be a result of covid and it's economic effect.

Murder isn't typically profitable unless it's during the course of a robbery. The same can be said for attempted murder, assault, assault with a deadly weapon. Violent crimes can be driven by profit...but they aren't typically.

You're presuming murder would always be committed during the course of a "crime of profit" rather than out of a more generalized anger of one's situation and one's sense of social victimization in a culture where life already has little consideration of value.
 
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Brihaha

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I disagree with the idea of privately owned prisons....but the idea that we are keeping a large prison system to maintain cheap or free labor is mostly nonsense.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_prison#2010s

Only about 8.5% of the prison population is housed in a private prison.

The whole myth seems to be created to support the larger myth that this is some evil racist nation of powerful white people oppressing non-whites. The 8.5% of prisoners in private prison doesn't really explain 91.5% of other prisoners. It's not some plan for racial oppression or love of cheap labor.

My point had nothing to do with the free labor idea. Private prisons make money incarcerating people. It's reasonable to believe the more prisoners they can house, the more their profits can rise.
 
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Ana the Ist

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You're presuming murder would always be committed during the course of a "crime of profit"

Actually I'm presuming that a lot of murder happens without a for profit motive.

rather than out of a more generalized anger of one's situation and one's sense of social victimization in a culture where life already has little consideration of value.

Yeah I definitely don't think that's a motive for murder. I've literally never seen a prosecutor describe that as the motive for murder....nor have I ever seen a confession of murder where that was the motive given.

I don't know where you got the idea that is a motive for murder....but if I had to guess, I'd say it definitely wasn't from actual murder cases.
 
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RDKirk

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Actually I'm presuming that a lot of murder happens without a for profit motive.



Yeah I definitely don't think that's a motive for murder. I've literally never seen a prosecutor describe that as the motive for murder....nor have I ever seen a confession of murder where that was the motive given.

I don't know where you got the idea that is a motive for murder....but if I had to guess, I'd say it definitely wasn't from actual murder cases.

Well, when a mugger pressed a pistol barrel into my right kidney and pulled the trigger even after I'd given him my wallet...what would you say was the motive?

The "motive" is not always a point of the situation itself. When people get wildly outraged over minor issues, pulling a gun because someone stepped on his Jordans, for instance, the motive is not truly, "You stepped on my shoes."
 
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Ana the Ist

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Well, when a mugger pressed a pistol barrel into my right kidney and pulled the trigger even after I'd given him my wallet...what would you say was the motive?

Could be that the last time he did this, he went to jail because he left his victim alive and they were able to contact the police quickly. It could be that he was on drugs and angry that you only had 20$ in your wallet.

You're not giving me much to go on.

The "motive" is not always a point of the situation itself.

Motive in this context refers to the reason someone did something.

When people get wildly outraged over minor issues, pulling a gun because someone stepped on his Jordans, for instance, the motive is not truly, "You stepped on my shoes."

It's the perception of "disrespect" from the act and a culture that values life as worth taking over such a trivial thing. In some communities, to let something like that slide makes you "weak" and deserving of being victimized.

To use a term the left likes (but avoids applying to certain demographics) you could say it's an extreme form of toxic masculinity that glorifies violence and justifies its use in such situations by proving that you aren't someone to mess with.

Again though, you aren't giving me much to go off. I don't want to assume too much...but the left has the goofiest ideas about crime I've ever seen. In some cases, like San Francisco decriminalizing shoplifting....it's pretty hilarious, obviously a mistake, and unfortunately going to continue to cause problems for the same communities they intended to help until they admit they were wrong and don't know what they are doing.

Walgreens closing 5 more San Francisco stores over shoplifting fears

Hopefully they swallow their pride before there's no legitimate businesses to be found in these communities.

In other situations, like bail reform and parole reform, they're literally putting people in danger....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ny...nh5awfojesnohu276mq-story.html?outputType=amp

'He shouldn't have been released' Murder victim's sister responds to her alleged killer's release as part of parole law

As for Oregon decriminalizing small amounts of drugs...I'm curious how that is going to turn out. It looks like it's just going to enable dealers to sell and profit more. That's really just my opinion though.

It's hard to understand why the left has suddenly become empathetic to criminals and antagonistic to police. It doesn't seem like a strategy that is going to benefit anyone long term. Except criminals....it will benefit criminals.
 
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Ana the Ist

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My point had nothing to do with the free labor idea. Private prisons make money incarcerating people. It's reasonable to believe the more prisoners they can house, the more their profits can rise.

Then I understand what you're saying but I don't get your point.
 
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Estrid

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Could be that the last time he did this, he went to jail because he left his victim alive and they were able to contact the police quickly. It could be that he was on drugs and angry that you only had 20$ in your wallet.

You're not giving me much to go on.



Motive in this context refers to the reason someone did something.



It's the perception of "disrespect" from the act and a culture that values life as worth taking over such a trivial thing. In some communities, to let something like that slide makes you "weak" and deserving of being victimized.

To use a term the left likes (but avoids applying to certain demographics) you could say it's an extreme form of toxic masculinity that glorifies violence and justifies its use in such situations by proving that you aren't someone to mess with.

Again though, you aren't giving me much to go off. I don't want to assume too much...but the left has the goofiest ideas about crime I've ever seen. In some cases, like San Francisco decriminalizing shoplifting....it's pretty hilarious, obviously a mistake, and unfortunately going to continue to cause problems for the same communities they intended to help until they admit they were wrong and don't know what they are doing.

Walgreens closing 5 more San Francisco stores over shoplifting fears

Hopefully they swallow their pride before there's no legitimate businesses to be found in these communities.

In other situations, like bail reform and parole reform, they're literally putting people in danger....

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-crime-bail-reform-20200305-orj4edxnh5awfojesnohu276mq-story.html?outputType=amp

'He shouldn't have been released' Murder victim's sister responds to her alleged killer's release as part of parole law

As for Oregon decriminalizing small amounts of drugs...I'm curious how that is going to turn out. It looks like it's just going to enable dealers to sell and profit more. That's really just my opinion though.

It's hard to understand why the left has suddenly become empathetic to criminals and antagonistic to police. It doesn't seem like a strategy that is going to benefit anyone long term. Except criminals....it will benefit criminals.

Any place will get the level of crime and drug addiction it is willing to tolerate.

Mao was the world's most effective time drug counselor.
 
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Ana the Ist

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Any place will get the level of crime and drug addiction it is willing to tolerate.

Mao was the world's most effective time drug counselor.

The decriminalizing of small quantities is going to be interesting. I understand the principle behind it....people saw criminal getting several years for small amounts of narcotics, they see addiction as more of a medical problem than criminal problem, and they thought putting someone in jail for this was more harmful than helpful.

The problem is that this isn't the whole picture. A lot of first time offenders with small quantities were getting funneled into treatment as an alternative to jail because they were arrested. That won't happen now that they can't be arrested...they'll need to seek treatment themselves.

The arrests of addicts also led to the identification and arrest of dealers. First and multiple offenders typically strike deals (also including treatment) to avoid prison time. Their information/assistance is key to disrupting supply chains. Big busts often start with the arrest of small users.

It's gotta be a lot more difficult to catch dealers now. Realistically, a dealer is safe from arrest as long as he isn't holding more than the legal limit. A cop would have to witness the entire transaction to even have a case and then, it would probably be very difficult to prosecute anyone under the legal limit.

So I'm guessing the effect of this legislation, while succeeding in lowering the arrest of low level offenders....will also increase the profits and number of dealers, which tends to carry the threat of gang violence with it. On top of that....I think it's also going to prevent more addicts from getting treatment.
 
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Estrid

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The decriminalizing of small quantities is going to be interesting. I understand the principle behind it....people saw criminal getting several years for small amounts of narcotics, they see addiction as more of a medical problem than criminal problem, and they thought putting someone in jail for this was more harmful than helpful.

The problem is that this isn't the whole picture. A lot of first time offenders with small quantities were getting funneled into treatment as an alternative to jail because they were arrested. That won't happen now that they can't be arrested...they'll need to seek treatment themselves.

The arrests of addicts also led to the identification and arrest of dealers. First and multiple offenders typically strike deals (also including treatment) to avoid prison time. Their information/assistance is key to disrupting supply chains. Big busts often start with the arrest of small users.

It's gotta be a lot more difficult to catch dealers now. Realistically, a dealer is safe from arrest as long as he isn't holding more than the legal limit. A cop would have to witness the entire transaction to even have a case and then, it would probably be very difficult to prosecute anyone under the legal limit.

So I'm guessing the effect of this legislation, while succeeding in lowering the arrest of low level offenders....will also increase the profits and number of dealers, which tends to carry the threat of gang violence with it. On top of that....I think it's also going to prevent more addicts from getting treatment.

A lot of unexpected consequences!
You even left out the surge in illegal pot farms
with all their attendant ills.

To many of us outside the USA we get the feeling
that great nation is simply dissolving.
 
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Ana the Ist

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A lot of unexpected consequences!
You even left out the surge in illegal pot farms
with all their attendant ills.

To many of us outside the USA we get the feeling
that great nation is simply dissolving.

The feeling is here on the inside as well.
 
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