probinson
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Well, let's take a look again...
Discussion
Mask mandates were associated with statistically significant decreases in county-level daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. Allowing on-premises restaurant dining was associated with increases in county-level case and death growth rates within 41–80 days after reopening. State mask mandates and prohibiting on-premises dining at restaurants help limit potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2, reducing community transmission of COVID-19.
Studies have confirmed the effectiveness of community mitigation measures in reducing the prevalence of COVID-19. Mask mandates are associated with reductions in COVID-19 case and hospitalization growth rates, whereas reopening on-premises dining at restaurants, a known risk factor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection, is associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths, particularly in the absence of mask mandates.
Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing ...
Turns out, there are "statistically significant decreases."
Wait, what exactly is the CDC examining here? The effect of mask mandates, or the effect of closing dining establishments? From your link;
The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, although models controlled for mask mandates, restaurant and bar closures, stay-at-home orders, and gathering bans, the models did not control for other policies that might affect case and death rates, including other types of business closures, physical distancing recommendations, policies issued by localities, and variances granted by states to certain counties if variances were not made publicly available. Second, compliance with and enforcement of policies were not measured. Finally, the analysis did not differentiate between indoor and outdoor dining, adequacy of ventilation, and adherence to physical distancing and occupancy requirements.
So to summarize, the "study" did not account for all measures that might have had an effect on case and death rates, didn't consider whether people were actually complying with the mandates, nor did they even bother to differentiate between indoor or outdoor dining.
Secondly, I can see why you chose to leave the actual data out of your copy and paste, as it's not very compelling;
During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.
So after 100 days, case growth rates were associated with a decrease in 1.8 percentage points. But don't forget that there are any number of other reasons that decrease might have happened.
We really should expect better from the CDC than throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks.
On average, the number of excess cases per 100,000 residents in states reopening without masks is ten times the number in states reopening with masks after 8 weeks (643.1 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 406.9, 879.2 and 62.9 cases; CI = 12.6, 113.1, respectively). Excess cases after 6 weeks could have been reduced by 90% from 576,371 to 63,062 and excess deaths reduced by 80% from 22,851 to 4858 had states implemented mask mandates prior to reopening. Over 50,000 excess deaths were prevented within 6 weeks in 13 states that implemented mask mandates prior to reopening.
Comparing Associations of State Reopening Strategies with COVID-19 Burden
Really no point in denying these facts.
Oy.
From your link on how this study was designed;
We used an interrupted time series (ITS) to compare the rate of growth in COVID-19 cases and deaths after reopening to growth prior to the reopening. Because all states reopened, each state serves as its own control.12 To estimate what the case rate would have been if the state had not reopened, we assume the state-specific trend in cases prior to reopening would have continued to be the same if the state had not reopened. State fixed effects controlled for state characteristics associated with outcomes that did not change over the study period. Our sample included 50 US states and the District of Columbia. Daily COVID-19 confirmed case counts were obtained from the New York Times database from January 21 through July 16, 2020.
Can I ask you why more than a year into this pandemic that NOT ONE of these studies looks at the explosion of cases that occurred in the 4th quarter last year? Where are these studies? I mean, I've already asked you this question numerous times, and you continue to ignore it. Because if you ran this same study from October 2020 - January 2021, the results would be COMPLETELY. DIFFERENT.
Secondly, there is an assumption that the trend in cases would have stayed the same if the state had not opened. That's not a valid assumption, as current data shows. You can't just assume infection rates will stay the same. In some cases, they increase. In others, they decrease. The assumptions and modeling that has been done in the name of science have been demonstrably and repeatedly wrong.
Sheesh. These "studies" make me weep for science.
Yes. I didn't think it would be a surprise to anyone that reducing the number of people infected, would reduce number of deaths.
But it matters WHO is infected. If a teenager or child, or even a young adult is infected, they have a very low chance of death. If a senior citizen or a person with co-morbidities is infected, their risk of death is substantially higher.
This is why last year when an overnight camp in Georgia had an outbreak, nothing came of it. Not one death despite 260 people being infected. An attack rate of 44%, and not one death. Those 260 people developed natural herd immunity and are fine today.
On the other hand, it takes just one person at a long-term care facility to unleash a torrent of death throughout the facility. So there is not a direct correlation between number of infections and number of deaths.
Your error, of course, was incorrectly calculating the percent difference. As you now understand, the difference is 23%, not 0.0094%.
And 23% is significant.
In the case of Alaska about 70 deaths that would have been prevented.
In the case of Hawaii, about 130 deaths that were prevented. About what you'd expect from the crash of an airliner. Does that matter? I think so.
So you think we can control EVERY COVID infection down to the number? Not likely.
And why are you so very opposed to letting each individual take whatever measures they deem necessary to protect themselves? If someone is compromised and concerned about catching COVID, they can take measures. They can wear a mask. They can stay home. They can get curbside pickup. But people whose risk profile is exponentially lower should be able to decide for themselves if they also want to take those same measures, especially since the mitigation measures have immense collateral damage, which we've not even begun to realize yet.
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