Is Biden setting a low bar for his administration on vaccinations?

[ThatRobGuy]

Is Biden's bold promise to vaccinate 100 million Americans in 100 days possible?

Biden says he is "convinced" 100 million people can be vaccinated in first 100 days - CBS News

Obviously several journalism outlets have been repeating the "they're having to start from scratch" falsehood (which Dr. Fauci addressed in a presser)

...but beyond that, when you look at the current trends in vaccination rates, 100 million in 100 days doesn't sound like too big of a jump based on where the trend line was already moving.

Could this potentially be a case they're setting a goal we were already trending toward anyway, and making it seem lofty so that it seems like a "massive accomplishment and testament to what good leadership can do!" when we that that number is easily surpassed?

If you can give the impression "we're starting from nothing", then 100 million doses in 100 days sounds pretty darn impressive.

If you say "we're going to take it from 800k to 1 million per day", it sounds like you tweaked an existing plan and made it better.

If you say "we're on pace to be averaging 1 million per day, and we're doing to keep that going", then it just sounds like embracing the status quo.


If you toss out the Dec 23rd-Jan1st time window (as it's understandable that's the ramp-up period of a new process), and just look at Jan 3rd - Jan 21st and look at the averages for that time window, and notice that the trend is already moving in the right direction, seems like they should be setting a higher bar for themselves if the claim is that they're making massive improvements.

Of course, a reported asked Biden about this and he snapped at them a bit, and then the staffers did what they've been doing which is intervene and say "oh guys guys, we're going to have to wrap it up here, everybody out"

Thoughts?

I voted for Biden over Trump because I thought he was a better choice, but I would still like it if the media wouldn't completely drool over him, and occasionally grill him with some tough questions rather than playing the role of cheerleader.

 

[Hans Blaster]

A few things:

1. It maybe a modest goal. I don't know the expected production schedule for the next 3 months, which is one limiting factor.

2. This goal was made several weeks ago. When they had no idea what the vaccine production and delivery status was.

3. All of the vaccines in use currently require two doses at least 20 days apart. This chart (while useful) is for doses, so effectively they'll need to double the rate quickly. At least 100 million will need their first dose by day 75 or so to meet the goal of vaccinating 100 million people in 100 days. (So they can receive the second dose by day 100.)

 

[Elliewaves]

I think I read somewhere that the National Guard and FEMA were going to assist, so I think they can logistically plan for this number. The goal was given before this administration knew what supply they were dealing with. The problem was getting the vaccines in arms and I know in my state, those eligible for their turn have a really hard time finding a place and then scheduling a slot for vaccination, or they register and no one contacts them. I do think when efforts and availibility are ramped up , it could easily exceed the goal.

 

[Nithavela]

I think it's better to set realistic goals then to lose trust by promising the moon. Besides, reaching a certain number of vaccinations is not the same as maintaining that pace for months.

The USA had 4 years of a government that promised much and never delivered.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

I may be reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like it shows an average of about 240,000 (possibly 451,000) vaccinations per day, so 1 million per day would be a 150% (105%) increase against current rates. I wouldn't consider that modest. Again that assumes I'm reading the graph correctly.

my interpretation of the graph:

vaccination did not begin until Jan 5 with about 250,000 vaccinations. noting the value of each data point, of which there appear to be 10 and averaging that over the 30 day period gives an average daily vaccination rate of 241,000 vaccinations per day. If we only count from the first day of vaccination, which would make sense we get 451,000 per day. 2 days show more than a million vaccinations.

 

[Nithavela]

I may be reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like it shows an average of about 240,000 (possibly 451,000) vaccinations per day, so 1 million per day would be a 150% (105%) increase against current rates. I wouldn't consider that modest. Again that assumes I'm reading the graph correctly.

my interpretation of the graph:

vaccination did not begin until Jan 5 with about 250,000 vaccinations. noting the value of each data point, of which there appear to be 10 and averaging that over the 30 day period gives an average daily vaccination rate of 241,000 vaccinations per day. If we only count from the first day of vaccination, which would make sense we get 451,000 per day. 2 days show more than a million vaccinations.

The line appears to be trending upward. But it remains to be seen, especially considering that a second dose needs to be delivered. Unless that graph counts the first and second dose as two vaccinations, which makes it only half as impressive.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

A few things:

1. It maybe a modest goal. I don't know the expected production schedule for the next 3 months, which is one limiting factor.

2. This goal was made several weeks ago. When they had no idea what the vaccine production and delivery status was.

3. All of the vaccines in use currently require two doses at least 20 days apart. This chart (while useful) is for doses, so effectively they'll need to double the rate quickly. At least 100 million will need their first dose by day 75 or so to meet the goal of vaccinating 100 million people in 100 days. (So they can receive the second dose by day 100.)

Actually, the Biden goal he mentioned as 100 million doses in 100 days from the sounds of it (unless he chose his wording poorly and meant "fully vaccinate"
Biden vows to move ‘heaven and earth’ to administer 100 million vaccine doses in 100 days as he calls Trump effort a ‘dismal failure’

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I may be reading the graph wrong, but it looks to me like it shows an average of about 240,000 (possibly 451,000) vaccinations per day, so 1 million per day would be a 150% (105%) increase against current rates. I wouldn't consider that modest. Again that assumes I'm reading the graph correctly.

my interpretation of the graph:

vaccination did not begin until Jan 5 with about 250,000 vaccinations. noting the value of each data point, of which there appear to be 10 and averaging that over the 30 day period gives an average daily vaccination rate of 241,000 vaccinations per day. If we only count from the first day of vaccination, which would make sense we get 451,000 per day. 2 days show more than a million vaccinations.

"Averages" can be a bit misleading with regards to determining where we're at.

The first 15 days was predictably slow as the it took time to nail down the logistics within the supply chain, and set up vaccination sites, etc...

In terms of where we're at now, 100 million doses administered in 100 days isn't exactly a dramatic leap.

A few publications (even on the left) have started calling him out a little bit for that. Vox was one such publication.

Biden’s Covid-19 vaccine goal isn’t ambitious enough

Per Vox:
President Joe Biden has promised a faster Covid-19 vaccine rollout, vowing to administer 100 million shots during his first 100 days in office — enough to fully vaccinate 50 million Americans.

But that goal is no longer as ambitious as it once appeared.

Over the past week, America has already averaged about 900,000 vaccinations a day, making Biden’s goal of 1 million a day barely a step up from what the country reached before he took office on Wednesday.

...although, for anyone familiar with the content, Vox can tend to be more willing to call their own party out on nonsense than some other members of the left leaning media, so I'm not surprised they ran this piece addressing the numbers. I was worried that might change when Ezra Klein left Vox earlier this month, but thankfully it hasn't yet.

 

[hedrick]

There’s an ambiguity. Is it 100m doses or 100m people vaccinated. 100m people is fairly ambitious.

 

[Tinker Grey]

There’s an ambiguity. Is it 100m doses or 100m people vaccinated. 100m people is fairly ambitious.

Agreed. 100m people "completely" vaccinated is 200m doses. That's twice ambitious as 50 million people vaccinated twice.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

I had it on the highest authority that there were only 15 cases and it was going to be zero soon. What happened?

 

[Hans Blaster]

I had it on the highest authority that there were only 15 cases and it was going to be zero soon. What happened?

The authority in question was removed for incompetence and malfeasance.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

"Averages" can be a bit misleading with regards to determining where we're at.

The first 15 days was predictably slow as the it took time to nail down the logistics within the supply chain, and set up vaccination sites, etc...

In terms of where we're at now, 100 million doses administered in 100 days isn't exactly a dramatic leap.

A few publications (even on the left) have started calling him out a little bit for that. Vox was one such publication.

Biden’s Covid-19 vaccine goal isn’t ambitious enough

Per Vox:
President Joe Biden has promised a faster Covid-19 vaccine rollout, vowing to administer 100 million shots during his first 100 days in office — enough to fully vaccinate 50 million Americans.

But that goal is no longer as ambitious as it once appeared.

Over the past week, America has already averaged about 900,000 vaccinations a day, making Biden’s goal of 1 million a day barely a step up from what the country reached before he took office on Wednesday.

...although, for anyone familiar with the content, Vox can tend to be more willing to call their own party out on nonsense than some other members of the left leaning media, so I'm not surprised they ran this piece addressing the numbers. I was worried that might change when Ezra Klein left Vox earlier this month, but thankfully it hasn't yet.

Perhaps, but I feel like the administration is going with the data they had at the time they made the goal. I would think they could revise and/or get more ambitious once they've learned from this first 100 days what the long-term challenges are and how to best mitigate them to increase those numbers.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

There’s an ambiguity. Is it 100m doses or 100m people vaccinated. 100m people is fairly ambitious.

Based on the Vox article I linked (and that's by no means a conservative publication that would bet out to "get" Biden), they seemed to be under the impression that he was referring to 100m doses in 100 days.

Biden’s Covid-19 vaccine goal isn’t ambitious enough

Per Vox:
President Joe Biden has promised a faster Covid-19 vaccine rollout, vowing to administer 100 million shots during his first 100 days in office — enough to fully vaccinate 50 million Americans.

But that goal is no longer as ambitious as it once appeared.

Over the past week, America has already averaged about 900,000 vaccinations a day, making Biden’s goal of 1 million a day barely a step up from what the country reached before he took office on Wednesday.

 

[hedrick]

Based on the Vox article I linked (and that's by no means a conservative publication that would bet out to "get" Biden), they seemed to be under the impression that he was referring to 100m doses in 100 days.

Biden’s Covid-19 vaccine goal isn’t ambitious enough

Per Vox:
President Joe Biden has promised a faster Covid-19 vaccine rollout, vowing to administer 100 million shots during his first 100 days in office — enough to fully vaccinate 50 million Americans.

But that goal is no longer as ambitious as it once appeared.

Over the past week, America has already averaged about 900,000 vaccinations a day, making Biden’s goal of 1 million a day barely a step up from what the country reached before he took office on Wednesday.

Probably. I think Fauci is clear that we need to pick up the pace significantly. 100m people would be more like it.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Probably. I think Fauci is clear that we need to pick up the pace significantly. 100m people would be more like it.

We'll see if Fauci's honeymoon period with the left-leaning media and the Biden admin fizzles out after a matter of time.

Fauci's had a long running career in this spot and had a pretty good track record of sticking with the science based on what's known, and trying not to get pulled into political bickering.

During his tenure with the Trump admin, it was obviously the GOP that was much further away from the science on the issue than the Democrats, so his "telling it like it is" was much better received by outlets like NY Times and CNN (because most of it was directed at pointing out where Trump's team was incorrect).

However, now that it's a different party leading the charge, we'll see if his contradicting CNN's claim of "Biden's administration has to start from scratch" (that they repeated over 20 times) and saying "no we're certainly not starting from scratch here" is as well received moving forward.

 

[Hans Blaster]

it was obviously the GOP that was much further away from the science on the issue than the Democrats,

This is the only problem I see here. The overall disconnection of the GOP from facts, in this case science.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

This is the only problem I see here. The overall disconnection of the GOP from facts, in this case science.

...on scientific matters that challenge certain ideological narratives (especially on polarized topics), the GOP certainly has a poor record.

However, it's not fair to put all of the "anti-fact"/"anti-science" sentiments at their feet. The Democrats do their fair share of that as well, just on different subjects.

Both sides tend to love science/data when it supports their political goals, and reject it on topics where it doesn't.

However, science/data rejection among the GOP tends to get more focus because it happens to pertain to topics of grave importance (like Covid and the Environment), as where science/data rejection among progressives tends to circle around topics where they may be wrong about the science/data, but that "wrongness" isn't going to directly lead to any widespread catastrophic outcomes.

Much like many other things, "not all science rejection is created equal".

IE:
Rejecting epidemiological science during a pandemic has far greater consequences than rejecting biological science when discussing "who can use what locker room" when debating gender issues.


The major area of political affiliation overlap in terms of science rejection seems to be on the topic of vaccines. ...and that's one particular area where I feel some progressives are giving "their own" a bit of a pass. IE: if a conservative is an anti-vaxxer, they get shellacked by the media...however, guys like Robert De Niro (who a lot of progressives like because he trash talked republicans) don't seem to get any negative attention for his anti-vaxxer views. Same can be said for RFK Jr...who's a prominent left-wing anti-vaxxer, and he was a front runner for a cabinet position in the Obama administration...or like Tom Cruise, who was praised for yelling at his film crew for violating Covid protocol, but simultaneously believes in...well, you know lol.

So some consistency in standards would do the progressive side a world of good when it comes to conveying the message of "sticking to the science".

 

[Hans Blaster]

Both sides

You mistook my comment for an overall invitation to discuss political parties. (You may have assumed I am a Democrat, I am not.) I also rather deliberately avoided your whole series of comments about media bias regarding Faucci. I've seen one of his interviews since the change of administration and he's clearly glad to not have to step around a fool trying to bend reality to his will.

 

[Joyous Song]

Here in NY ii is vaccines we need (we can only vaccinate people for three days a week on the present situation. Of the two present vaccines Maderna's is preferred, this one needs only a refrigerator and stay at room temp for 30 minutes making far more easier to use, an could be handled by many doctors offices. It also safe and effective an because it was not formed from a live or killed virus, it likely will work well with any new strain of the covid virus.