GDP up 33% -- Thank you President Trump

Isilwen

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"One reason 30 percent growth doesn’t mean the economy is healed stems from how percentage changes work when going down and then up. If you own a stock priced at $100 and it drops 30 percent, it is now worth $70. If it gains back 30 percent, it is then worth $91 (the gain is just $21 because 30 percent of 70 is 21). In the same manner, the large drop in output in the second quarter followed by similar sized increases in the third quarter will still leave a large hole. Even if GDP growth is 30 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, output will still be more than 4 percent below its level at the end of 2019, which is more than the farthest the economy ever was from its prior peak in the Great Recession."

Don’t let flashy 3rd quarter GDP growth fool you, the economy is still in a big hole
 
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Fantine

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Without another stimulus, this "recovery" will stall.

We have not really moved forward, just gotten back what we lost in March due to the pandemic.

And where is the state of the pandemic now, after seven months of irresponsible, inconsistent, and unscientific 'leadership?' from the Trump administration?

Our daily case total has doubled in the past few weeks. We now have over 9 million cases (COVID Worldometer) and 233,000 deaths. Due to colder weather and flu season, cases have started soaring in Europe. The UK now has 100,000 new cases a day and is instituting a one month shutdown, and Germany is following suit.

What is so frightening is that the U.S. is heading to the same crisis, and when it happens in a few weeks our (hopefully) lame-duck president will be even more determined to keep the economy (unsafely) open. After all, in January his hotels and golf courses will be all he's got, a considerable reduction in his fiefdom, and his previous behavior indicates that the economy (especially the tourism economy) must be prioritized over the dangers to Americans' health and survival.

The Fed said last week it can't keep rescuing the economy. We aren't in great shape (and the stock market is still down almost 2,000 points from a week ago). The only way out is to deal intelligently with this virus, to take whatever precautions and safeguards are necessary to open the economy sensibly, and stop holding superspreader rallies, particularly those that leave 40 shuttle loads of senior citizens stranded to walk three miles to their cars in thirty degree weather.
 
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JosephZ

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33% growth is great, but it only brings the GDP back to where it was in the first quarter of 2018.

gdp.jpg


GDP growth under the Trump is averaging well below the previous 6 presidents.

GDP growth rates under the last six U.S. presidents:

Jimmy Carter (D): 3.25%
Ronald Reagan (R): 3.48%
George H.W. Bush (R): 2.25%
Bill Clinton (D): 3.88%
George W. Bush (R): 2.2%
Barack Obama (D): 1.62%
Donald Trump (R): 0.95%

Even if you take out 2020's huge drop in the GDP, Trump was averaging 2.5% which would put him below presidents Reagan, Clinton, and Carter.

Looking at recent years, Trump's record on GDP isn't impressive at all.

gdp2.jpg
 
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paul1149

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This recovery obviously isn't meaningful, because it has taken place under Trump's leadership. There is no way to tie it to Obama. Truth be told, had Obama-Biden still been in office, we could be experiencing yet another of their vaporware "PIVOT TO JOBS", since Obama admittedly had no "magic wand" to bring them back. And don't forget, "J-O-B-S" remains one of Biden's favorite "three-letter words".
 
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Arcangl86

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This recovery obviously isn't meaningful, because it has taken place under Trump's leadership. There is no way to tie it to Obama. Truth be told, had Obama-Biden still been in office, we could be experiencing yet another of their vaporware "PIVOT TO JOBS", since Obama admittedly had no "magic wand" to bring them back. And don't forget, "J-O-B-S" remains one of Biden's favorite "three-letter words".
No it's not meaningful because a) there is no specific actions of Trump that can be pointed towards it, and b) the GDP is still below where it was at the beginning of the year.
 
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hislegacy

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civilwarbuff

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No it's not meaningful because a) there is no specific actions of Trump that can be pointed towards it, and b) the GDP is still below where it was at the beginning of the year.
So you are admitting that the gdp decreases cannot be attributed to him either? That's a first.
 
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civilwarbuff

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Do you have anything else to add? Like how President Trump was responsible, or response to the criticism that the GDP is still down 11 percent from where it was at the beginning of the year?
And since he is not responsible for the increase he can't be responsible for the decrease.
 
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Arcangl86

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So you are admitting that the gdp decreases cannot be attributed to him either? That's a first.
No I am not. I wish you would stop putting words in my mouth. I wil lsay that the whole decrease is not attributable to him. But an uncertain amount of it can probably be linked to actions or inaction involving the pandemic.
And since he is not responsible for the increase he can't be responsible for the decrease.
I can shoot somebody and be responsible for them going to the hospital. The doctors can then fix him and get him out of the hospital. I made him worst, but not better. The two don't have to be linked.
 
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civilwarbuff

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No I am not. I wish you would stop putting words in my mouth. I wil lsay that the whole decrease is not attributable to him. But an uncertain amount of it can probably be linked to actions or inaction involving the pandemic.
I can shoot somebody and be responsible for them going to the hospital. The doctors can then fix him and get him out of the hospital. I made him worst, but not better. The two don't have to be linked.
Not putting words in your mouth; just analyzing your response. Sorry, you cant have it both ways. He can't be responsible for the decrease and not responsible for the increase....not understanding that basic principle is ludicrous....and your response states that since a person cannot point to anything he has done to cause the increase he cannot be given credit for it....am I correct?(Like how President Trump was responsible, or response to the criticism that the GDP is still down 11 percent from where it was at the beginning of the year?...see post #9) If not, please restate your premise.
 
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Arc F1

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