US now has most COVID-19 deaths, surpassing Italy (ETA: more than Italy per capita)

[Monna]

This site tracks hospitalizations, which they feel is far more accurate than the number of confirmed cases.

Accurate in what sense?
If it doesn't count the people in old folks homes who die there of CoVid-19, or poor people who don't get into a hospital at all, etc etc ... it certainly isn't accurate in terms of number of infected people, and probably not of number of deaths from the virus.

"Tracking daily hospitalization data is a major step forward in quantifying the current impact on local hospital systems..." (from site referenced)

It is only a more accurate indication of the utilisation of hospital facilities --- it isn't really a fully accurate indication on "the current impact on local hospital systems ..." if it doesn't indicate the number of people turned away, or who would come if they thought they could get care, but believe they can't. I.e. measuring the extent to which demand is greater than supply. Also, hospitalisations alone, indicate only hospitalisation (See the note under the map in the figure) - it doesn't indicate the degree to which demand for specialised equipment inside hospitals is being exceeded.

 

[ZNP]

Accurate in what sense?

The number of confirmed cases of Covid is based on the number of tests you have done, do more tests, you will have more confirmed cases. For example, Iceland has done more testing per capital than any other country in the world and they have discovered that approximately 1% of their population is infected. Now it is difficult for me to believe that Iceland has a higher infection rate than the US. If we also have a 1% infection rate then our current "confirmed cases" around 500,000 is between 1/6th and 1/7th of the true number.

However, for people who are sick enough to go to the hospital we would have a much more accurate number. These people are tested. True, there are some who are sick enough yet don't go to the hospital, and there are some who die at home, but is it really 6 or 7 times the number that is hospitalized?

The second way this increases accuracy is we have a 2nd metric to use. We can count deaths and estimate total infection, we can count hospitalizations and estimate total infections, we can do a comprehensive testing of a random sampling (like Iceland) and make estimates of total infections.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Not surprising when you consider population sizes, and the fact that a large concentration of the cases (and deaths) are in NYC...a city that doesn't have an Italian counterpart in terms of population density.

NYC: 71,340 people per square mile

Rome (Italy's most densely populated city): 5,781 per square mile.

Given the overall population sizes of the various nations, and the population densities in some of our metropolitan areas, I'd say the US is doing quite well in comparison to other nations.

Furthermore, in terms of the death rate in the US, we don't have an accurate denominator to work off of at this point until they do some randomized data collection about how many people have the antibodies for it (indicating that they had the virus, and have recovered from it).

 

[ZNP]

Not surprising when you consider population sizes, and the fact that a large concentration of the cases (and deaths) are in NYC...a city that doesn't have an Italian counterpart in terms of population density.

NYC: 71,340 people per square mile

Rome (Italy's most densely populated city): 5,781 per square mile.

Given the overall population sizes of the various nations, and the population densities in some of our metropolitan areas, I'd say the US is doing quite well in comparison to other nations.

Furthermore, in terms of the death rate in the US, we don't have an accurate denominator to work off of at this point until they do some randomized data collection about how many people have the antibodies for it (indicating that they had the virus, and have recovered from it).

More to it than that. It is a wealthy city that has one of the busiest international airports in the world, with the a second very busy international airport just over the border in NJ. It is also a shipping hub. Then everyone uses mass transit (subway and bus), the high school I'm at has 2,000 kids and about 400 adults working there. All the kids take the subway and bus from all over the city (Queens, Brooklyn, even Bronx) and the teachers are from all over the city, long island and Westchester. On top of that the Mayor resisted closing the schools for over a week, insuring that everyone got infected.

We had teachers from New Rochelle and Nassau county, the two hot spots. Now one person infected comes into that school and 2400 people become exposed and carry it to the four corners of the city in a single day. Get the infection inside subway cars and they are traveling from one end of the city to the other getting people infected in a single day.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

BUT if you only focus on new york where 50% of the deaths and 20% of the cases are, the us has 100 more per capita then italy.

That just tells you that New York has more old, weak, and sick people, many of whom didn't seek medical attention until it was too late.

 

[blackribbon]

About 120 death workers and US soldiers work around the clock to pick up as many as 280 bodies a day from New York City homes, according to The New York Times.

While many of these people likely died of the coronavirus, their deaths are probably not counted in the official death toll, The Times' Ali Watkins and William Rashbaum reported on Friday.

New York City and the state count their deaths differently. The state tally is based on hospital data, which includes people who tested positive for the virus and died in the facilities, The Times reported.


Teams are retrieving up to 280 bodies a day from NYC homes. Not all of them are counted in the official death tally.

If they die at home and are not on hospice, an autopsy is required to determine the cause of death.

 

[blackribbon]

Two reasons why they could be.
1. they may still be able to pass on the virus - without being aware of it.
2. in statistical terms it affects the mortality level - the more people who have or have had the disease the lower the mortality rate of the pandemic.

Real statistics won't be available until we start to test for who has antibodies. They asymptomatic people are not needing hospital care. And if they are staying at home and not going around other people, they won't spread it to others. While people are dying and are sick enough to be hospitalized, it is hard to put any focus on the people who aren't very sick. While we are in the middle of the storm isn't really the best angle to get an overall picture. That will come in time.

 

[blackribbon]

You also have to weigh in that there is a 30% false negative rate. That means 30% of those who test "negative" are really positive and either the swab was done incorrectly or the test was taken at a time where there were not enough virus to register positive.

 

[Subduction Zone]

My numbers are for several states...but Michigan in particular, a hot spot. However, the rapid test is now available so a small blip up is only reflecting we are getting a positive diagnoses faster, instead of days after admission.

And the people who are not reporting symptoms are not really a problem, are they? T

People that are infected but are asymptomatic are a huge problem.

 

[KCfromNC]

That just tells you that New York has more old, weak, and sick people, many of whom didn't seek medical attention until it was too late.

It does?

 

[OldWiseGuy]

If they die at home and are not on hospice, an autopsy is required to determine the cause of death.

Each death must be examined carefully for a multitude of reasons.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

It does?

The majority of deaths occur in older folks with health problems. Minority populations are hit the hardest as it is they who are most reluctant to seek medical attention early on. The crowded conditions that New Yorkers live in, which is especially true of minorities, is a key factor in the rapid spread of the virus. All these factors created a 'perfect storm' in New York.

 

[grasping the after wind]

BUT if you only focus on new york where 50% of the deaths and 20% of the cases are, the us has 100 more per capita then italy.

That is simply an unreasonable thing to say. New York has 100 more per capita. New York is not the entire US it is only New York. If New York was the entire US, Hillary Clinton would be President and the entire US might well have 100 more per capita than Italy due to the likely possibility that she . like Biden, would not have banned travel from China when Trump did because that would have been Xenophobic and they would not ever want to be seen as acting Xenophobically just to protect some Americans from harm. So what did New York do wrong then and why aren't people placing the bulk of the blame on the huge numbers coming from New York on the people in chart in New York for doing the worst job in the US in prevention?

 

[Subduction Zone]

The majority of deaths occur in older folks with health problems. Minority populations are hit the hardest as it is they who are most reluctant to seek medical attention early on. The crowded conditions that New Yorkers live in, which is especially true of minorities, is a key factor in the rapid spread of the virus. All these factors created a 'perfect storm' in New York.

But now you dropped your old and weak claim. Yes, the old and immunocompromised are the most likely to die, but that has little to do with why and how it spread so quickly in New York.

 

[grasping the after wind]

Doesn't the EU actually lead the world in Covid-19 deaths?

 

[sfs]

If New York was the entire US, Hillary Clinton would be President and the entire US might well have 100 more per capita than Italy due to the likely possibility that she . like Biden, would not have banned travel from China when Trump did because that would have been Xenophobic and they would not ever want to be seen as acting Xenophobically just to protect some Americans from harm.

What difference would that have made? Almost all airlines had already cancelled flights from China by the time Trump banned flights.

 

[grasping the after wind]

What difference would that have made? Almost all airlines had already cancelled flights from China by the time Trump banned flights.

There is a vast difference between all and almost. Just like the difference between being the most , the best the greatest at something and and being really good at it. How many flights would it take to make a travel ban Xenophobic?

 

[Subduction Zone]

What difference would that have made? Almost all airlines had already cancelled flights from China by the time Trump banned flights.

And Trump did not exactly ban flights. His claims about what he did, surprise surprise, were inaccurate at best. After he imposed travel restrictions 40,000 people still came to the U.S. from China:

Direct flights from China brought 40k to U.S. after Trump coronavirus travel ban

Thousands were from Wuhan alone.

And another article that goes into a bit of depth comparing Trump's claims, exaggerated and false, and what actually happened:

AP FACT CHECK: Trump’s inaccurate boasts on China travel ban

Trump has to focus on the few things that he did rather ineffectively than own up to how he dropped the ball before this problem even arose.

 

[Subduction Zone]

There is a vast difference between all and almost. Just like the difference between being the most , the best the greatest at something and and being really good at it. How many flights would it take to make a travel ban Xenophobic?

That is a bit of a strawman. Trump shows his xenophobia largely in how he tries to blame others for his failings.

 

[grasping the after wind]

That is a bit of a strawman. Trump shows his xenophobia largely in how he tries to blame others for his failings.

The act of banning travel from China was labelled Xenophobic. That is not a strawman it is reference to an actual charge levelled by people at the time toward the act itself.