We need a mask and wash order, not a stay at home order

[Tom 1]

So, I went to O'hare last week and picked up someone flying in from Tokyo. Tokyo is a city with a population of ~13 million. For perspective, the state of Illinois has a population of ~12 million.

During her 2.5 week stay she went out to bars, restaurants, on the *packed-like-sardines* JR train lines, and to *Hanami* -- the annual drinking picnics in the parks as the Sakura shed their blossoms. You see: they have yet to close their bars and restaurants.

WHAT? IN A TIME LIKE THIS? THAT'S INSANE!

Wrong.

You see, at this moment, the more-populous-than-Illinois city of Tokyo **plus** the rest of Japan has an out break count lower than *just Cook county* [Source](UPDATED: Coronavirus World Outbreak Map – 2019-nCoV Outbreak Map)

Now, some of you who keep up with the half-truth & lying media may be saying "Ahh, but I read that's because they're not testing so aggressively. Naturally, they will have a low count. So, they're likely super sick, but it's just not being counted"

Wrong again.

You see, Japan has a larger, and older, elderly population than Italy. If it were the case that they were *still catching, just not counting* the massive elderly population would bear no exemption. They would be dropping like flies, their clinics overwhelmed, and the count would skyrocket.

So why can they romp about the bars, go to ramen shops, pack into the subways like sardines in a can, and drink in the park while we red-blooded, freedom-loving Americans cower in fear in our houses? Why can a nation of 160 million, packed in an area the size of California, keep calm and carry on, still having a lower outbreak count than *just Cook county*?

Well, there are a couple popular theories. One is that Japan rejects Western multi-culturalism and, lacking diversity, has an abundance of social cohesion in which everyone has an attitude of being in this together. The "Spirit of Wa", they call it. Another theory is that with weekly and daily earthquakes, twenty some typhoons each Summer, and the constant threat of tsunamis, crisis is a fact of life in Japan and they live in a constant state of preparation.

The theory I find most plausible is that they wear their masks, don't touch their faces (it's inelegant), and they *wash their hands*. I was talking about this, and I learned that in elementary schools in Japan they have hand-stamps that look like a germ or some overly *ka-wa-ii* character. When a child goes to the restroom he gets a stamp on each hand. The stamp is designed to come off after twenty seconds of washing. When they graduate to middle & high school the schools no longer employ janitors. Instead, the students have "cleaning hour". This includes bathroom, cafeteria, and gym facilities. At the entrance of schools they have shoe lockers, where students remove their outdoor shoes and put on indoor-only slippers. I've witnessed paramedics, of habit, slip off their shoes when entering a home solely to carry a man out on a stretcher. If you've spent any time there, you know the Japanese are very clean.

Another possible contributor is being fat puts you at increased weakness against the virus. And while Americans are obscenely over weight, obeisity is virtually non-existent in Japan. While roughly half of Americans are not just overweight, but clinically obeise, about 3% of Japanese are overweight. At 6'3" and 235 lbs, I actually got fat jokes during my last visit there. That's saying something, given be-polite-and-never-offend Japan. If you want an epidemic to worry about, it's the obeisity epidemic.

So yeah. In conclusion, this whole "12 million under house arrest" thing is *waaaaaaay* overblown. IMHO we have a governor using a fancy flu as a pretext to flex his inner Mussolini and put 12 million *cough* freedom-loving Americans under quasi house arrest. Meanwhile, 13 million jam-packed Tokyo-ites are going about business as usual. Because they wash their hands.

In Tokyo currently staggered start times are in place, with employees starting work at different hours to eliminate the usual packed rush hour trains. Most people in Tokyo and across the country are practicing self-isolation, I have a friend in a smaller city who tells me most people are avoiding going out even to enjoy the blooming of the cherry trees. In Tokyo people are making changes like working out at home, and so on. Under Japanese law it is illegal for the government to restrict freedom of movement in the same way that the US or European countries can, so self isolation there is voluntary. However the majority are respecting it.

 

[KarateCowboy]

Oh, for goodness sakes. Tokyo is not six times as dense as Chicago. I did miss that your number was density in km instead of miles. So Chicago, using the same metric is about 4500/kmsq.

The 1200 number was from Cook County, since I have outbreak numbers for that, but not the city of Chicago, specifically. Which is still less dense than Tokyo. And if you want get really technical, the PROPER Tokyo proper excluded the shi(mountainous regions), and had just the ku, which have a density of about 16,000 per km/sq Special wards of Tokyo - Wikipedia

So, the densest parts of Illinois are 4.5k per km/sq, versus the densest parts of Tokyo prefecture at 16.5k per km/sq. About 400%.

Wow. That's not how that works.

Yes, it is.

Patience. They are going to have to look into social distancing more, too....Their numbers are increasing. They had 200 more cases yesterday.

That's kind of missing my point in the OP. You know, that mitigating exposure with hygiene and masks should come before the more extreme crackdown of house arrest.

 

[KarateCowboy]

Or maybe their outbreak is not that severe....yet.

Tokyo confirms 68 new coronavirus cases, record daily increase

And today...highest single day increase yet in Tokyo...

That's the whole point. Their numbers are not yet that severe, for the reasons I listed, despite being packed like sardines in a can, and without government-ordered house arrest for 12-13 million people.

 

[KarateCowboy]

I wouldn't speak too soon.

I keep hearing this. "I wouldn't speak to soon. I wouldn't speak to soon". But house-arresting 12 million people? Not too soon for that, I guess!

 

[46AND2]

That's the whole point. Their numbers are not yet that severe, for the reasons I listed, despite being packed like sardines in a can, and without government-ordered house arrest for 12-13 million people.

Um...so...they should wait to do the house arrest until it gets bad...rather than potentially nipping it in the bud before it gets bad. Gotcha. Good plan, yo.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

And yet their death rate is higher than a country with 2x as many cases.

Norway has 4284 cases and 25 deaths.

Japan has 1866 cases and 54 deaths.

 

[46AND2]

And yet their death rate is higher than a country with 2x as many cases.

Norway has 4284 cases and 25 deaths.

Japan has 1866 cases and 54 deaths.

Heck, it's higher than the U.S. death rate, too. It's because they are limiting their tests to only the worst cases. They've caught a bunch of flack for that.

 

[KarateCowboy]

Viruses are way smaller than 1 micron. COVID19 is ~ 0.125 micron



No, it can't. Because ~30% isn't high enough. (the number I took from your link)

The article tested against virus particles five times smaller than Wuhan virus, and cotton blend fabric blocked 70%.

Not only that, but having done a stupid non real case test for penetration they then only test actual masks for fit. Where in that article is the fitness for a hanky tied up with a shoelace? Oh, right, nowhere.

Oh no I wrote the word "shoelace" to illustrate the accessibility of materials for making your own mask. Therefore all the facts and practical analysis I've presented mean nothing because.... SHOELACE! So there! Meanwhile the ..... nothing.... you've presented makes a great case for.. nothing.... Sure.

On top of that, they have other tests which show blocking when worn.

Can DIY Masks Protect Us from Coronavirus? - Smart Air Filters

The final nail in the coffin is that this only looks at protection for the wearer, not things like preventing contamination of areas by people already infected. As I pointed out already, the Japanese wear them just as much to protect those around them as to protect themselves.

 

[KarateCowboy]

Um...so...they should wait to do the house arrest until it gets bad...rather than potentially nipping it in the bud before it gets bad. Gotcha. Good plan, yo.

And there we see the inner Mussolini. Even despite that, we see the truth popping up in your own writing : "Potentially nipping it in the bud". Putting 12 million under house arrest is an extreme reaction. You can't justify it until you can explain how 13 million, jam-packed together, can have a lower infection rate, with less extreme measures. The onus is on you to justify violating civil liberties and throwing us back into the Dark Ages. I mean, you can't even show that it needs to be "nipped in the bud" or even that the house arrest CERTAINLY WILL do that. It's only "potentially". And at what cost?

 

[KarateCowboy]

Heck, it's higher than the U.S. death rate, too. It's because they are limiting their tests to only the worst cases. They've caught a bunch of flack for that.

I already refuted that line of reasoning in the OP, which you apparently still haven't read through.

There is something to be said for methods of testing and recording. I've been reading that Italy's numbers may be dramatically inflated due to bad counting criteria. Meanwhile, we all know China is just outright lying about their numbers.

 

[46AND2]

I already refuted that line of reasoning in the OP, which you apparently still haven't read through.

There is something to be said for methods of testing and recording. I've been reading that Italy's numbers may be dramatically inflated due to bad counting criteria. Meanwhile, we all know China is just outright lying about their numbers.

But you DIDN'T refute it in the OP. It is FACT that Japan has tested relatively few people per capita. It is FACT that their PLAN was to save tests and only test the worst afflicted. It is FACT that they have more deaths than Cook County, despite having half the confirmed cases.

They have a much higher count, in reality, than their numbers suggest. And it's starting to be reflected in the counts of the last few days...

 

[KarateCowboy]

But you DIDN'T refute it in the OP. It is FACT that Japan has tested relatively few people per capita. It is FACT that their PLAN was to save tests and only test the worst afflicted. It is FACT that they have more deaths than Cook County, despite having half the confirmed cases.

They have a much higher count, in reality, than their numbers suggest.

Yes, I did, and I considered all those facts, and made a much better analysis than you present in your finishing sentence there. I mean, two big problems you have to explain if you're going to claim what you are. 1) compare the infection rate between Tokyo and Illinois compared to population density and explain why Illinois' house arrest has not worked as well as Tokyo's cleaning and containment 2) explain why the elderly are not dropping like flies in Japan or Tokyo, if their rate of infection is actually so much higher, as you claim. Oh and actually the third is that you have to provide some sort of tangible estimate of this "much higher" rate, as well as why. Just saying "it's GOTTA be higher; it's GOTTA be higher" doesn't hold water.

 

[46AND2]

And there we see the inner Mussolini. Even despite that, we see the truth popping up in your own writing : "Potentially nipping it in the bud". Putting 12 million under house arrest is an extreme reaction. You can't justify it until you can explain how 13 million, jam-packed together, can have a lower infection rate, with less extreme measures. The onus is on you to justify violating civil liberties and throwing us back into the Dark Ages. I mean, you can't even show that it needs to be "nipped in the bud" or even that the house arrest CERTAINLY WILL do that. It's only "potentially". And at what cost?

Sigh. What part of "you can't catch this disease from somebody you don't interact with" do you not understand?

Can you still catch it if you are interacting with an infected person while you are wearing a mask and washing your hands? Yes or no? CAN you?

 

[KarateCowboy]

Sigh. What part of "you can't catch this disease from somebody you don't interact with" do you not understand?

That's factually incorrect. In fact, it's exactly that type of ignorance which is the most dangerous, because it creates a false sense of security. If the Pepsi guy stocking energy drinks at a gas station sneezes on something like a can, then someone comes by an hour later and drinks from the can, then he can get the illness from him, despite never seeing him ever in the course of his life.

However, if the Pepsi guy were wearing a mask that caught the sneeze so there was no transmission, and the guy who bought the can practiced standard Japanese hygiene and disinfected the mouth of the can before drinking, then can he still get the virus from him? Yes or no? CAN HE?

That's the beauty of it: by practicing hygiene, cleanliness, and masking, you can prevent the transmission of the illness, even when SOCIAL DISTANCING fails, and even creates the illusion of safety, which endangers us all.

 

[Tanj]

The article tested against virus particles five times smaller than Wuhan virus, and cotton blend fabric blocked 70%.

And handkerchiefs blocked 28%.

Seriously, have you considered reading the articles you use as evidence?

Oh no I wrote the word "shoelace" to illustrate the accessibility of materials for making your own mask. Therefore all the facts and practical analysis I've presented mean nothing because.... SHOELACE! So there! Meanwhile the ..... nothing.... you've presented makes a great case for.. nothing.... Sure.

On top of that, they have other tests which show blocking when worn.

For actual masks. There's not a single test of fit for your macguyver handkerchief.

The final nail in the coffin is that this only looks at protection for the wearer, not things like preventing contamination of areas by people already infected. As I pointed out already, the Japanese wear them just as much to protect those around them as to protect themselves.

The Japanese wear handkerchiefs tied up with a shoelace? News to me.

Just to be clear: I have no problems with N95 masks being used, just your comment that I can use a handkerchief and a shoelace. Have you ever tried to breath through a tightly fitted handkerchief?

 

[46AND2]

That's factually incorrect. In fact, it's exactly that type of ignorance which is the most dangerous, because it creates a false sense of security. If the Pepsi guy stocking energy drinks at a gas station sneezes on something like a can, then someone comes by an hour later and drinks from the can, then he can get the illness from him, despite never seeing him ever in the course of his life.

However, if the Pepsi guy were wearing a mask that caught the sneeze so there was no transmission, and the guy who bought the can practiced standard Japanese hygiene and disinfected the mouth of the can before drinking, then can he still get the virus from him? Yes or no? CAN HE?

That's the beauty of it: by practicing hygiene, cleanliness, and masking, you can prevent the transmission of the illness, even when SOCIAL DISTANCING fails, and even creates the illusion of safety, which endangers us all.

Wrong. There have been no confirmed cases of somebody catching the virus even from food. In fact, scientists have gone so far as to say that somebody could cough on your food and you're still unlikely to get it from them. It's caught by inhaling respiratory droplets.

Secondly, NOBODY IS SAYING it isn't important to improve your hygiene. In fact, most of us have explicitly stated that BOTH proper hygiene and social distancing should be practiced.

Which is the superior guard against getting the infection from Joe Blow: wearing a mask while you hang out with him, or not hanging out with him at all? It's pretty simple.

 

[KarateCowboy]

And handkerchiefs blocked 28%.

Seriously, have you considered reading the articles you use as evidence?

It does not say that. You're making that up. The lowest protection rate against 0.02 micron particles is ~50%.

For actual masks. There's not a single test of fit for your macguyver handkerchief.

I'd be curious what, in your mind, is the difference between a DIY mask as I describe, and a DIY mask as they tested?

The Japanese wear handkerchiefs tied up with a shoelace? News to me.

Yes. They do. Welcome to Earth.

Just to be clear: I have no problems with N95 masks being used, just your comment that I can use a handkerchief and a shoelace. Have you ever tried to breath through a tightly fitted handkerchief?

Yes. I've used them in when woodworking. Why?

 

[KarateCowboy]

Wrong. There have been no confirmed cases of somebody catching the virus even from food. In fact, scientists have gone so far as to say that somebody could cough on your food and you're still unlikely to get it from them. It's caught by inhaling respiratory droplets.

Secondly, NOBODY IS SAYING it isn't important to improve your hygiene. In fact, most of us have explicitly stated that BOTH proper hygiene and social distancing should be practiced.

Which is the superior guard against getting the infection from Joe Blow: wearing a mask while you hang out with him, or not hanging out with him at all? It's pretty simple.

Viruses can, do, and have been transmitted by contaminated surfaces. This is a matter of fact. Not opinion. And, this virus is generally considered MORE contagious than others. The fact that they haven't yet confirmed a case of THIS one is just being stupid. It's like "Dur dur there have been cases of death adders killing people, but there haven't yet been any confirmed cases of THIS death adder killing people, so it's probably not possible!".

 

[Tanj]

It does not say that. You're making that up. The lowest protection rate against 0.02 micron particles is ~50%.

You are correct, I am making that up. No idea where I got it from.

I'd be curious what, in your mind, is the difference between a DIY mask as I describe, and a DIY mask as they tested?

The shoelace? As opposed to the sewing machine they used in the actual test?... Which is to say I went and read the actual study, in particular the (statistically significant) worse fit of the home made masks, and this gem:

"However, the length of time each participant kept their mask on during testing was minimal (15 min)"

 

[wing2000]

I keep hearing this. "I wouldn't speak to soon. I wouldn't speak to soon". But house-arresting 12 million people? Not too soon for that, I guess!

Where are 12 million people under house arrest?